Sanctions are a consequence of the catastrophe in Russia, showed Yale University
Many Western media outlets often report that the judgments passed against Russia are more felt in the West, and that the Russian economy has proven remarkably resilient. However, such protocols are considered contradictory, according to a group of representatives from Yale University in the United States, headed by Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeldpublished the report “Business exit and how the decision cripple the Russian meeting”.
More than 20000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 “Leaving_Owners_left” or announced to leave Russia since February, according to analysts. The investment of this share is more than 600 billion dollars, and the number of jobs exceeds 5 million.
“Moreover, the more aggressively the company left the Russian market, the more it was rewarded on Wall Street, – Sonnenfeld says. – In other words, the departure did not harm the companies and their shareholders in any way, but even vice versa, profit. At the same time, Putin was fabricating misinformation, showing misleading statistics showing that the stock market had fallen by just over half and the ruble looked like a deceptive hit. He thus spoke of the world: “See: your demands do not work!”. But in fact, he only falsified the data.”
“Since the Russian military incursions in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s public releases have become increasingly biased, selectively discarding unfavorable indicators, showing only those that are more favorable,” – statement in the study.
Yale’s Sonnenfeld team of experts used international data from trading and shipping partners, as well as non-traditional sources, including high-frequency consumption data, cross-channel checks, and searches for complex shipping data, and finally published one of the first of the comprehensive economic analyzes , which measure Russia’s current economic activity months after five incursions into Ukraine.
Russia’s dependence on the export of its energy resources and exports, imports, the authors of the document, is greater than the world’s dependence on the export of these imports. Almost 60% of state budget revenues have increased dramatically from the sale of energy resources, while in the world the export of energy resources of each item (gas, oil, coal) is no more than 10%. Russian gas deliveries to Europe have fallen to a record low in five months, and the possibility of increased consumption to the east, as Putin declares, is limited due to conditional probability.
“Russia does not have natural technologies and exploration that would allow it to start producing oil in new fields in the Arctic, as well as technologies for liquefying gas, – says research director Stephen Tien. – So for the most part, although Russia has energy resources, without the help of the West, it is not able to extract and supply them. Pipelines are needed to deliver gas, as it is not liquefied gas. 90% of pipelines owned by Russia go to Europe, and only 10% – just one pipeline – led to Asia, and even that is not yet fully completed.
Russia provides private reserves that can be accessed at a choice of rates. Over the course of the full-scale aggression, the reserves decreased by $75. Of the approximately $600 billion in the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, almost 300 are blocked abroad.
“Before the invasion of Crimea in 2014, the Russians kept most of their foreign exchange reserves in the United States, – says one of the authors of the study Franek Sokolovsky. – However, it is realized that these reserves can be frozen if any conflict breaks out between the US and Russia, the Russians have accumulated to diversify the reserves and take them outside the US.: to Europe, Japan. And suddenly all the countries of the West and the G7 agreed to freeze their assets. Now they can’t access half of their foreign exchange reserves.”
Import substitution is also not working, analysts say, pointing out that Russia is significantly reducing car emissions and safety margins. The country offers access to spare parts and exclusive goods. Sharply, by almost 20%, since the beginning of the aggression, retail trade and consumption have fallen. According to Viktor Babinskyco-author of the report, in Russia the favorable environment for business has long disappeared, and after the start of aggression, the situation has become even worse:
“The Russian government has long destroyed property rights in their country. Back in 2003, Putin began to purge the oligarchs with the help of the judiciary and the police. Since then, this power has created a deal in which there is no independent business. Every business must follow the “party line”, the ruler’s line. And those companies that are exclusive because of greed, chose to stay in Russia, are now beginning to realize that their bet has paid off, as Russia becomes more of an Iran, isolated from the economic markets and politically.”
However, not all cases were found with the findings of the report. Thus, Bloomberg economist Alexander Isakov several inaccuracies. For example, the authors of the study write about the huge decline in the Russian economy in the first quarter of 2022, if you do not take into account the seasonal factor. First quarter figures in Russia are well below average every year. This is due to the New Year holidays, the climatic climate and the agricultural cycle. If we take into account these data, then in the first quarter, GDP grew by half a percent, the decline in growth was only in the second quarter, Isakov calculated.