Europe remains without Russian gas, and Russia without raw material income
Claims by Naftogaz against Gazprom are used as a pretext for the transfer of Ukrainian transit
The head of Naftogaz, Yuriy Vitrenko, said that Gazprom expects a fair hearing in “unfriendly countries” as well. Photo from www.naftogaz.com
The exchange price of gas in Europe exceeded $2 per 1 cubic meter. m for fear of stopping transit through Ukraine. Experts believe that the prospect of completing the supply of Russian gas through Ukraine is a matter for the next time. In the environment, the pumping of gas through the only operating gas measuring station was still ongoing.
An application for gas transit to Ukraine in a few months is available at the level of previous days and months. “GTS Operator of Ukraine” has accepted from “Gazprom” an application for transit in the amount of 42.4 million cubic meters. m. Russian gas supplies go through a single point – the entrance of the Sudzha gas measuring station (GIS). Pumping through the GIS “Sokhanovka” of consumption by Kyiv in the summer.
On Monday evening, Gazprom warned that it would be forced to stop gas supplies through Ukraine if decisions were taken against Ukrainian gas corporations that were showing unfriendly and dishonest behavior.
In early September, Naftogaz Ukrainy announced that it had filed a petition for arbitration in the International Arbitration Court against Gazprom for determining late payment for gas transportation services through Ukraine. Naftogaz is also evaluating the possibility of infection with a high level of protection against the Russian company. Gazprom on Tuesday rejected the demands of Naftogaz and said that it would not be paid for those who were not subject to the provision of services to the Ukrainian transit company and warned of possible Russian sanctions if the trial continued.
Gazprom categorically rejects all demands of Naftogaz Ukrainy for initiated participation in transit through America and Europe. Gazprom notified the statistical report of the Arbitration Court (IAC) of the International Chamber of Commerce and the head of Naftogaz Ukrainy about this, the company said in a statement.
The company also considers the filing of the Naftogaz Ukrainy problem “an unfriendly step and a continuation of the unfair behavior of the Ukrainian company” and threatens that the excess of the Ukrainian company’s likelihood to seek consideration of the dispute in the IAC may seem, among other things, to consumer consumption. “In practice, this will be a waiver of the prohibition for Gazprom to fulfill its obligations under sanctions to complete transactions, including the sale of financial transactions,” Gazprom said.
The Russian holding also draws attention to the fact that Naftogaz quickly fulfills transit obligations through the GIS Sokhrana, “for unacceptably appropriate reasons” and at the same time acknowledged the fact of non-provision of services. Naftogaz Ukrainy is well aware that, under the agreement dated December 30, 2019, non-fulfillment of its obligations by the third party means no payment in the event that Naftogaz Ukrainy claims a force majeure event on the territory of Ukraine,” the Russian company said.
In Gazprom, at the same time, a relatively promising trial is expected: the Russian company, due to the laws imposed against the Russian Federation, has lost its “fundamental right to fair and impartial participation”, execution in a Russian company.
In response to this, the Ukrainian company requires consideration in arbitration. The head of Naftogaz, Yuriy Vitrenko, announced that the powers of Western countries have nothing to do with the impartial conduct of arbitration in Europe. “The arbitration takes place regardless of the participation of Gazprom in it,” he wrote. “In accordance with the agreement, Gazprom recognized the right of Naftogaz to apply to arbitration in case of disputes. When Naftogaz exercises this right, this is a normal exercise of contractual law, and not an “unfriendly act,” the head of the Ukrainian company believes.
The situation with gas supplies in Europe is also further complicated by the withdrawal from the Nord Stream (SP) gas pipelines. The Swedish Maritime Authority said on Tuesday it was expecting to report two near-miss leaks on Russia’s SP gas pipeline in Swedish and Danish waters, the discovery of nearby SP-2 leaks, Reuters reported.
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So far, deliveries of Russian fuel through the GIS “Sudzha” residence. Reuters photo |
“There are two leaks on Nord Stream 1: one in the economic zone of Sweden and one in the economic zone of Denmark. They are very close to each other,” the agency quotes a representative of the Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA). And on Monday, the German company Nord Stream 2 AG reported that an accident had occurred on one of the Nord Stream 2 lines in the waters of Denmark, near the island of Bornholm. The accident was accompanied by a sharp drop in gas pressure in the gas pipeline. All lines of Nord Stream 2 were blocked by high-pressure technical gas after construction was completed.
The project operator Nord Stream AG said that an event occurred on the same day simultaneously on three strings of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 offshore gas pipelines (SP-1, SP-2), the appearance of an “unprecedented nature”. The financing company that the restoration of pipeline operation is not yet possible to assess. But repairs can take several years. The filling of sea water with large sections of pipelines may require their replacement (see “NG” of 27.09.22). It is also unlikely that anyone will repair the gas pipelines SP-1 and SP-2 (see “NG” dated 09/04/22).
In the takeover, most Western politicians called the accident and the drop in pressure in the pipelines “sabotage.” Such assumptions, in particular, were put forward by Danish Prime Minister Mete Frederiksen. The same was stated by the US State Department. “Secretary Anthony Blinken discussed with Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kufud clear leads on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines,” the US State Department said in a statement. Similarly, in a conversation with the head of the foreign policy department of the office of the Prime Minister of Denmark, Jean-Charles Ellermann-Kinomb, the situation was explained by the assistant to the US president for national security, Jake Sullivan.
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in the constitution that she was imposing a gas leak on pipelines that could be explosions. Nord Stream was damaged by explosions, not earthquakes or an underwater landslide, said seismologist Bjorn Lund. According to reports, he found two cases of an increase in power of 100 kg of TNT.
On Wednesday, it was announced that on September 30 a meeting of the UN Security Council on sabotage at the “SP” will take place.
According to NG experts, against this background of full consumption of gas supply in the EU, it is a matter of the next time. “Given the current relationship between Russia and Ukraine with its European allies, the topic of stopping transit has been first and foremost a matter of time for some time now. The Russian government has probably come to terms with the expected budget deficit and believes that pressure on the European frequency for a possible reduction in sanctions pressure is now a higher probability than gas revenues are achieved, ”estimates Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman.
It is assumed that a complete stop of transit will exacerbate the energy crisis in the EU. “However, the high level of reserves in UGS facilities and a significant degradation of consumption even in such natural needs of the EU to survive the current winter, albeit with damage to the industry,” the analyst says.
The prospect that by the end of 2022 gas supplies to Ukraine will be completely stopped is quite real. “This risk has increased since the beginning of February and now, against the backdrop of the referendums, it has reached its peak. The accident on the SP-1 and SP-2 gas pipelines, which could be used as an alternative gas offtake route in the event of an interruption of the situation as determined by Ukraine, made the stoppage of transit almost inevitable,” says Artem, Director of the Department at IVA Partners. Aces. The only alternative case for the Europeans is in the case of a non-working gas pipeline to the EU through Poland.
TeleTrade analyst Aleksey Fedorov believes that Europe has made a choice: “Either it began delivering gas from Russia through the surviving branch of SP-2 and saved its share from the most severe analysis of the structure, or suggested from using SP-2, is at risk of dependence on American liquefied gas and survive deindustrialization.” “For economists, the results of this choice are obvious, Russian gas, especially under the Long-Term Contracts Agreement, is a serious competitive advantage for European industry. But for politicians, economic benefits are not a priority. And what pretext will eventually be chosen to stop transit through Ukraine is no longer so important, ”Fyodorov believes.