Russia Under the Yoke of Detention – Blog Review – Finversia
Intermediate results 6 months later.
The main peak of pain has already passed, there is a fairly rapid adaptation of economic entities to the new conditions. The most important thing that has been achieved is an exceptional situation and an uncontrollable collapse
There are no mass bankruptcies, no defaults, no fatal destructive processes, no increase in the closure of enterprises, no increase in the discovery and collapse of incomes, no delay in the financial system, which the Western countries and Russia’s detractors so much expected.
• Observed fall reduction rate Russian economy in terms of the index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity – so, if in June 2022 the growth rate reached 4.7% y/y, and in July only 3% y/y. From March to July 2022, only minus 2.3% y / y.
• Investments in fixed assets due to 4% y/y, while earlier they fell by 20%, and the expectations of most analysts converged to a monstrous collapse of 30-35%. But no, the growth was fully ensured in the measure, but it should have been so in the conditions of transformation.
• In Russia there is a construction boomwhich is in line with the projected forecast and significance when construction is reduced by 15-20%, as in 2009.
• Business in Russia extraordinarily optimistic relatively possible planning for business activity. Of all the segments of the Russian economy, only mining showed up in the representative side, while the manufacturing industry recovered by almost 80%.
• industrial production remarkably stable. No investigation into the Russian conference was accepted. According to the results of seven months, growth by 1% y / y in all industrial production, + 2.6% in mining, + 0.1% in manufacturing.
• Freight turnover in January-July minus 0.3%, and in March-July minus 2%and railway freight turnover in January-August 2022 increased by 0.7% compared to the same period last year. Earlier in 2009 they fell by 20-30% y/y.
• fixed reversal in negative dynamics average salary in Russia. In the first case, in 2022 there was a decrease by 6.6% y / y, a decrease in the incidence by 5%, a decrease by a decrease of only 2.2%.
• Consumer activity stabilizes a bitthere are cases of occurrence about the peak of mortality for the population. Retail sales from March to July 2022 fell by 7.2% y/y, while services grew by 2% in manifestations over the same period.
• Inflation consecutive continuation. Everything is going to the fact that in August a record price increase in Russia was set – never since the formation of the Russian Federation has there been a three-month decline in sugar prices on a scale.
• Ruble money supply in terms of expressions finally unfolded in growth by 7-8%which always supports the growth of the economy.
• The OFZ market is completely stable, market stocks are growing, the banking system is stableraids on consumer banks, lending is gradually recovering.
• Russia has a record current account surplus and fairly stable budget.
The crisis of 2009 was characterized by a sharp and almost instantaneous shutdown of the economy by 10-30%, depending on the sectors.
Crisis of 2015-2016 was quite protracted and painful, especially for economic households. The 2020 crisis was a typical flash crisis with a V-shaped trajectory.
The crisis of 2022 is different from all the previous ones – there is a sharp differentiation and multidirectional dynamics, which characterizes the viability of the Russian economy, the ability to search for new growth points and high detectability.