Russia is starting to recognize the action
After a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia became world movement in terms of the number of those selected against it, having overtaken even Iran in this field. However, Kremlin propaganda stubbornly claims that the only recourse, from seeing the restrictions imposed, is the West itself. However, even propagandists are finding it increasingly difficult to conceal how they are being called upon to appeal to the Russian economy, writes Center for European Policy Analysis.
May 12 at the government meeting on economic issues of Russia Vladimir Putin declaredthat the verdict against Russia leads to complex and difficult to reverse consequences for citizens and the poorest countries in the world. He called one of the consequences of the restriction “a sharp increase in resilience in Europe”, while with respect to Russia assuredthat she is “confidently advancing with the sanctions.” Minister of Economy echoed Putin Maxim Reshetnikovdeclaring that Russian economy “demonstrates cases.”
Some Western experts do recognizethat are available and the disruptions caused by the sanctions are self-evident, both in the US and the EU, and spread around the world. Russian propaganda with pleasure citing articles such as however, for a long time, any consequences of the imposed restrictions for Russia were ignored.
An accidental “swallow” that broke the silence among officials was sensational origin Head of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building Andrew Klishas that “the import substitution program has completely failed”, and the only thing that can be revealed by industry departments is “bravura reports”. Economist, professor of Moscow State University agrees with him Natalya Zubarevich. According to her, everyone says that this moment is basically impossible.
“If the auto industry closed fairly quickly and immediately, all other shortage problems arise gradually. This is the second quarter of this year. And at the beginning it will manifest itself in full“, – noted Zubarevich, recalling that “the Russian economy is very tightly integrated into the global world.”
The same opinion is contained in the presentation of the Higher School of Economics “New Contours of Industrial Policy”. In particular, happened therethat the indigenous Russian industry consumes from imports from the EU and the US. The authors expect that it will take years to find an alternative, and it is not possible everywhere. For example, the share of imported components in the manufacturing industry is reduced by 46%, and in some cases exceeds the vast majority.
The situation is no better with the production of medicines. The share of imported medicines in Russia in 2021 was 67%. At the same time, as noted by the media, for the production of so-called medical preparations, mainly imported substances, technologies and equipment are used. According to Natalia Zubarevich, 80–85% of the raw materials from which Russian medicine is imported.
The situation is approximately the same in other waters. The share of imports in the auto parts market is 95%, games and toys – 92%, shoes – 87%, telecommunications equipment – 86%, clothing – 82%, perfumes, cosmetics, detergents – 57%, and so on. Former Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko confessedwhich was a discovery for him that Russia cannot even produce nails, but imports them.
Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels have also begun to regularly publish expert opinions that fairly honestly show the situation in the Russian economy. So, the head of the analytical center “Politgen” Yaroslav Ignatovsky acknowledgedthat, in fact, no import substitution has been carried out in the last 8 years, and the real sector of the Russian economy is seriously dependent on Western products, including equipment for the oil and gas sector. In technological (production of microchips and software equipment) experts are resistant lagging behind the West by 10-15 years.
the importance of import substitution has not been carried out in the last 8 years
Even representatives of one of the supposed centers of Russia, the Valdai Discussion Club, in their extreme caution watching“Maybe increase the complexity that Russia is currently facing.“. By the way, in the search with other publications of Russian “analysts”, the discovery of frankness that is extremely unusual for a superficial structure. In particular, its author admits that “Moscow… clearly loses out to the European Union and other Western users in the economic sphere itself”, and, not resigned to her defeat, “turned the chessboard” and built a “fight”, destroying all the previously existing rules of the game.
Now, after almost four months of the war, Russian economists have begun to fail some results actions for the Russian economy. According to them, in the field of mechanical engineering, 15% of what Russia produced at the beginning of 2021 remained. Oil and gas producers are also suppliers, and refineries have strict requirements because all storage tanks are clogged with fuel oil. In turn, the export of fuel oil to Europe has been minimized and will be banned in 8 months. Economists note that Sibur and Gazprom also use imported equipment, the import of which is currently under sanctions.
It is not clear how the new project related to the production of liquefied gas “Arktika LNG2” will be delivered
“It is not clear how the new project related to the production of liquefied gas “Arktika LNG2” will be delivered. The ban on exports in ferrous metallurgy to Europe and the United States leads to the fact that in North Africa and Magnitogorsk it has already been announced that metal production will be reduced by 20-40% … Most likely, death will be around 50%“, – economy Natalya Zubarevich.
June business newspaper “Sight” it is also recognized that the Russian car market expects large-scale shocks, and “there has never been such a collapse in sales of new cars in Russia, even in the crisis year of 1998“.
“Dealerships sell what is left in warehouses. Repair and service also collapsed. Not everyone will survive – a third of car dealers are predicted to not survive such shocks … Sales of new passenger cars this year will fall by more than half“, – predicts author.
Other experts also constantly point out the problems of warranty service in the transport industry. “According to automakers and auto dealers, stocks of spare parts and assemblies will last for 2-4 months, no one officially comments on the ultimate prospects“, – canned they.
At the same time, all experts, regardless of their views, agree that the listed tests will primarily depend on population growth among Russians. However, it is precisely this, as well as the life and security of its own people, that worries the Russian authorities least of all.
Article reprinted with permission Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
REFERENCE: The Russian full-scale military invasion of Ukraine has been going on since the morning of February 24th. Russian troops arrive at the territory of airstrikes on the coastal territory and civilian police, arrive at airfields, military units, oil depots, gas stations, churches, schools and hospitals. The shelling of the population was occupied with the use of artillery, multiple rocket launchers and ballistic missiles.
A number of Western countries, including the US and EU countries, have tightened sanctions on Russia and condemned private life in Ukraine.
Russia denies that it opposes the takeover of Ukraine into its territory and suggests this “special operation”, which aims at “demilitarization and denazification”.
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