Macron vs. Le Pen: how Russia will influence the French presidential election
“More than presidential months ago, the re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron is naturally inevitable,” writes The Washington Post, an observer of the French race from across the ocean. – He confirmed the lead in the polls, ahead of the rival on the left and right… The second choice, either against Le Pen, or against the extreme left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, or one figure with a dubious attitude towards the forecast and the assumption of loyalty to Putin, was official”.
Macron, who came to power in 2017 as a radical centrist bent on shaking up the French observer, has taken on the role of continental statesman. Macron has reason to sweat as the first Sunday vote approaches. Most likely Macron will finish at the top of the rankings, but the polls are now taking hours that the gap between him and Le Pen will close if they face each other in the second round on April 24. “One minute to midnight,” wrote former Prime Minister Manuel Valls in Le Journal du Dimanche, a French weekly column. “Marine Le Pen can be elected President of the Republic.”
And not the last place in the election campaign in France is occupied by the Russian theme.
Emmanuel Macron presents criticism for his investigator in the Russian direction.
the choice is that the headlines of the French media day by day stigmatize Russia’s actions in Ukraine, accusations of a “pro-Russian” position
Yet this is not the case, admits POLITICO. Leader of the far-right National Rally party Indeed, Macron had to fight to keep its former representation against Russia. On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron sharply responded to criticism by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who accused the French president of having a temper with Putin. Morawiecki observed Macron’s regular calls to the Russian president as part of an ongoing, albeit unsuccessful, episode of their observation of the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict.
Macron, the president will write that he is right, leave the stage of communication with Moscow open: “I will do this as long as the Ukrainian asks for a dialogue with Russia, as long as France can play a role in promoting the volume of discussion, obtaining results at the humanitarian level and preparing for peace” .
The attack on the part of Pan Morawiecki “These words are unfounded, scandalous, but they do not surprise me,” Macron retorted on the air of the French television channel TF1, accusations that arrived to him from Warsaw.
He called the head of the president of the Polish parliament “an extreme right-wing anti-Semite who bans LGBT people.” At the same time, he could not resist the fact that, along with the Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, “seal” his main rival. Macron said: “The Polish Prime Minister belongs to the extreme right and supports Marine Le Pen.”
At the same time, the French president did not avoid the temptation to hint at his aggravation of Le Pen’s relationship with Moscow in the past, even recalling the “growth financing” of the growth of the party’s rival. According to POLITICO, the “National Association” achieves such a portion of the loan of 9 million euros received from a Russian bank in 2014, and often takes the side of Moscow – for example, on the issue of Crimea.
Despite all this and the anti-Russian op-ed that was launched by the media in France, in recent days, Marine Le Pen’s rating has steadily risen in public opinion polls. According to a POLITICO poll, Le Pen could count on 22 percent of the vote in the first round, while polls on the vote count of the second round of voting on April 24, that Le Pen measures influence on the president.
In part, this is due to the deft approach to the crisis in Ukraine. The leader of far-right presidents made a dramatic change of rhetoric, admitting on television that the conflict “changed her mind” about Russia, and she has consistently denounced Russia’s military frequency ever since. Moreover, the far-right interim leaders are even repressed to surpass Macron in their response to the crisis, prompted by the recent expulsion of an ambassador from France to Russia.
The Russian-Ukrainian theme was not bypassed by another far-right candidate for the presidency of the French Republic. Newcomer to the race, Eric Zemmour, has also come under fire for increased media scrutiny. The need for blame is that in the early days he called for increased tension of Ukrainian forces in Poland, but not in France.
Analysts say Zemmour has taken up the old “National Front” (as Marine Le Pen’s far-right party’s father used to call it before the rebranding), focuses on loyalty and immigration, while Le Pen focuses on the concerns of all French people, such as purchasing power and energy. .
Despite Le Pen’s campaign agenda on immigration and Islam in a Republican-Radical Kingdom undertaking a third presidency, the National Rally leader has rigorously stepped up his position in recent weeks, softening some of his rhetoric and focusing on cost-of-living issues. Millions of people in France are struggling to make ends meet after a 35 percent rise in fuel prices over the past year.
Instead of focusing on the Ukrainian events, Marine Le Pen focused her pre-election momentum on rising cost of living for ordinary French people, fueled by inflation and ruled out against Russia at the European meeting. This topic has come to dominate public debate in the run-up to the election.
Le Pen evokes the feeling of a protector of French families from the negative consequences of the EU’s influence on Russia.
“The decision to reduce the import of gas and gasoline [из России] tragedies for French families,” she said of RTL radio’s family recognition, noting that her “priority is buying the ability of French families.”
Macron, writes POLITICO, was likely playing catch-up during the campaign, arguing that his grassroots are also defending France’s purchasing power. At the same time, he has to control accusations that his level of control over the euro on the fees of consulting firms. His government is also actively promoting new powers against Russia.
If, as the polls leak, Macron and Le Pen converge in the second round, Le Pen may be poisoned by non-her voters that her ties to Russia are not republics to rule France.
And the prospect – while not looking very significant yet – of its possible success, from the White House’s point of view, threatens to destabilize the Western coalition against Moscow, undermining the role of the leading European power and threatening to negotiate with other leaders the commitment of members in the alliance.
The worst-case scenario is taking place in the White House, why for America could be the victory of Le Pen, and then the withdrawal of France from the anti-Russian coalition. Washington fears that Le Pen’s success could spur other European leaders, who already have some nervous breakdowns about being tough on Russia and are also interested in taking over the US by an anti-Russian alliance.