In Vienna they are working on the JCPOA, while the USA and Israel are studying a plan B.
Now or never for the Iran nuclear deal? New talks in the Austrian capital, while the Israeli Defense Minister Gantz and the head of the Mossad arrive in the US one
Faced with the “strong force” of Western powers towards a new nuclear deal with Iran, Israel has a single message for Iran: “Iran is susceptible to pressure; not to lift the sanctions and not to accept a bad agreement “. It is that of the prime minister Naftali Bennett and the Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. What the defense minister Benny Gantz and the head of the Mossad David Barnea they are bringing in these hours to Washington.
Words from a diplomatic source quoted by Jerusalem Send which seem to confirm two things: there is frustration in the Israeli government for the efforts of some Western countries (a question that Gantz will reiterate to his US counterpart Lloyd Austin and to the Secretary of State Antony Blinken); Israel will not allow Iran to have the nuclear weapon, as Barnea recently reiterated – “it is my mission, the Mossad mission” – which should provide updated material on Tehran’s commitment in that direction to the director of the CIA Bill Burns and the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
It is difficult to point out a single target for the visit – Israel will be the US viceroy in the Middle East, and enjoys special relations with Washington – but the contingency is there. While Gantz lands in the US capital, negotiations resume in Vienna to try to recompose the JCPOA, the agreement for the freezing of the Iranian nuclear program.
Sources informed the situation “now or never”, Because an injection of pragmatism could lead the conservative president Ebrahim Raisi to release the stalemate that arose after (and partly before) his election. Last week there was a first approach, the negotiators of the new Iranian presidency are sitting at the table for the first time; they showed their points of view (aggression and weakness together); in return they received a severe position from both the European Union and Russia and China (corners of the negotiating table on which Tehran is aiming to achieve something more).
They also talked about Jcpoa Joe Biden And Vladimir Putin in their virtual meeting on Tuesday: the Islamic Republic could be a field of friction, it is possible that (beyond the rhetoric and tactical positions) in the long term Iran will become a terrain useful of contact between the two leaders. At the moment everything is pushing to recompose the agreement, because the stabilization that could emerge is useful for everyone. This is a reality that Israel has to deal with.
Jerusalem has now reached the double awareness that the agreement will be put back into operation and that the line completed (the activities to sabotage it) therefore do not have the desired result. At the same time, the Jewish state realizes that there is no operational plan B, that is – as far as is known – there is no agreement on proceeding with aggressive actions against Iranian nuclear plants if Tehran does not return to the agreement with the United States. However, this does not mean that such an option will never be there.
Indeed, the Israeli objective could also be to take time to build in order to find a synthesis on a similar level; an aspect that could also be in the US interest in front of an Iran that seems to want to move from positions of strength almost underestimating the possibility of this kind of plan B. The line on how to manage the practice with Washington is part of the internal debate of Israeli politics.
Indeed, as he told Axios.com, the Israeli government has begun to split over the handling of the Iranian nuclear dossier. He can be satisfied with the stalemate in Vienna, as long as it leads to more sanctions on Iran and offers time to prepare Plan B. But Gantz and Lapid’s fear is that this phase could be more dangerous than a return to the 2015 agreement. On the one hand, there are the two of them, convinced of the need to keep the tone with the United States down. On the other hand, there is Bennett, who, reneging on his promises to start a government, has a clear and declared opposition to any talks with Iran against Washington. Ministries fear confrontation. Also for personal reasons, with Lapid trying to keep the feeling with Washington while waiting for the alternation with Bennett.
(Photo: Twitter @gantzbe)