Pirates and prefects together. The future government of the Czech Republic is unlikely to be friendly to Russia
- Maria Evstafieva
- BBC Russian Service
The formation of the Czech government after the elections held on October 8-9 may drag on until Christmas – if not for a longer period. No party has a discernible community. But the point is also that the President of the Czech Republic Milos Zeman is seriously ill – and the last word in approving the composition of the government is his.
The Russian service of the BBC reports what is happening in the Czech Republic after the elections and the subsequent hospitalization of the president. And also about what to expect for Russia after the formation of a government in an official “unfriendly” country.
How the parliamentary elections ended
On October 8 and 9, parliamentary elections were held in the Czech Republic, in which three parties united in the “Together” coalition won. In second place, just 0.67% behind, was the ANO movement of incumbent Prime Minister Andrei Babis – although all polls predicted a victory for him.
According to Babis, rivals who fanned “untrue scandals” during the election campaign are to blame for losing his party. The Prime Minister specified that this is the “Pandora Dossier” – the scale of the investigation by an international consortium of journalists. It showed that Babis purchased a $ 22 million villa in France through an offshore company. He himself insisted that he had not done anything illegal.
In third place is another coalition “Pirates and Heads” – from the center-left Pirate Party and the movement “Heads and Independents” (STAN). The right-wing party of fighters against LDS migrants also entered the ward – its globet, a native of Japan, Tom Okamura.
This arrangement complicates the formation of a new government as much as possible. No party has a decisive vote. The struggle is intensifying due to the grave illness of Czech President Milos Zeman.
When will the new government appear
According to the government’s Constitution, it is the head of state who takes over the government and appoints the new prime minister and minister.
However, the very next day after the parliamentary elections, President Zeman was hospitalized – and the political process stopped. The parties and the movement can only wait.
The winning coalitions Together and Pirates and Elders have already signed a memorandum on forming a government after the first results were announced.
Prime Minister Babiš disagrees: on Tuesday, October 12, he gave an interview to CNN. In it, Babis stated that President Zeman had said an hour before his hospitalization.
Babish refrained from further details. He urged to wait until Milos Zeman “will definitely offer it to him.” Before the elections, Babis said that if his party was held in the elections, he would quit politics. Now, however, he does not rule out that he will go over to the opposition.
The intrigue is that, according to the Czech Constitution, the head of government does not have to be a representative of the party that won the elections. The prime minister will be the one who will approve the government, which suits the majority of the deputies.
The Czech media are now frozen in anticipation of news about Zeman’s health. They are confident that as soon as he can return to his duties, he will make a choice among the main candidates – this is his favorite Babis and the leader of the victorious coalition “Together” Petr Fiala.
According to political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, even if Zeman is nominated, Babis has little chances: “He will not enter a coalition with him personally. Babis prime minister is not an option for any coalition.”
Czech political commentator and publicist Aleksandr Mitrofanov is also confident that two coalitions will play a decisive role in forming the government. Together and Pirates and Headmen control 108 of the 200 seats in the lower house of parliament.
Petr Fiala himself said in an interview with Czech radio Radiozurnal that he was in no hurry and would wait for the president’s fortune. “The government is going to retire after the creation of the Chamber of Deputies. So we have time during which we can act without the active steps of the president,” concluded Fiala.
The new Chamber of Deputies must meet no later than 30 days after the end of the elections. Marian Jurečka, leader of KDU-ČSL, one of the parties in the Together coalition, believes that a new government may appear even before Christmas.
In the event of the death of President Zeman, power will pass to the head of government – this is still Andrei Babish – and the chairman of the Chamber of Deputies. And the new prime minister will be appointed by the new head of parliament, who has yet to be elected. As of the evening of October 13, Czech doctors did not report any news about the condition of Milos Zeman.
Who will enter the new government
Together is an alliance of three parties: the center-right ODS (Civil Democratic Party) with leader Petr Fiala, KDU-CSL (Christian Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People’s Party) led by Marian Jurečka and TOP 09 (Tradition Responsibility Prosperity “-2009) with Marketa Pekarova-Adamova at the head.
The informal honorary chairman of “TOP 09” is the former foreign minister and his policies, “the political scientist observes.
Together, a new government was formed with another coalition – the Alliance of the Left Liberal Pirate Party, armed by Ivan Bartosz, and the centrist Elders and Old Ones (STAN), under the leadership of Vita Rakushan.
Thus, the ruling coalition will include five parties at once. The Czech media write that the leaders are still negotiating specific posts, but the clear contender for the post of prime minister is still Petr Fiala. He is a former minister of education, academician and rector of Masaryk University in Brno. Ivan Preobrazhensky says he represents “the most critical wing of Russia in the ODS.”
What will be the relationship between the Czech Republic and Russia
The leader of “TOR 09″ Market Pekarova-Adamova told the BBC Russian Service: “The Czech Republic is not someone’s province. their sphere of influence. ”
She said the new government would adequately defend itself against hybrid warfare – like a conventional war. At the same time, the leader of “TOP 09” stated that the Czech Republic will try to make the relations with the Russian Federation “at least correct”.
“However, the terrorist attack in Vrbetica proved that it can be a rather difficult task,” Pekarova Adamova clarified.
We are talking about two explosions at ammunition depots in the Czech village of Vrbetice in 2014. In April 2021, the Czech special services announced that GRU agents were suspected of involvement in the explosions. Specifically, Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, whom Great Britain accuses of poisoning, and Yulia Skripal.
Foreign policy of the Czech Republic in education personally the Minister of Foreign Affairs. According to the Czech media, there are two candidates for this post. This is the mayor of Hradec Králové Martin Dvořák (STAN) or the head of the Prague-6 district Ondřej Kolarж (“TOP 09”). Dvořák worked for five years as the Czech Consul General in New York, Kolář is known in Russia as the initiator of the dismantling of the monument to Marshal Konev.
It is curious that it was during the reign of the cabinet of Andrei Babis that the Czech Republic was included by Russia in the list of unfriendly countries. Although in his government, says political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, there were no tough opponents of Russia.
The Czech authorities had to react rather to the information about the explosions in Vrbetica. For example, because of this, the Czech Republic excluded Rosatom from the tender for the construction of a new power unit at the Dukovany NPP.
In the new coalition of countries, dangerous people warn, there are people who are even less friendly towards Russia. “It is possible that relations will begin to deteriorate sharply – if there is still much else to go,” warns Preobrazhensky.
Publicist Alexander Mitrofanov says it is unfair to call the new coalition “anti-Russian”: “The neutrality that characterized the Babish government is likely to freeze. [В чешской политике] the line is clearly being traced: not to quarrel in any way with Russia and China, but also in no case to enter into close relations with them. People who will come to power sooner or later are not ideologists, not activists, they are pragmatists. “
How the Czech Republic will behave in the European Union
According to the leader of “TOP 09” Pekarova-Adamova, the “Together” coalition is clearly oriented towards the West, with an emphasis on the future of the Czech Republic in the EU and NATO. “However, its coalition partner ODS in the European parliament is part of the European conservatives and reformists, that is, the Eurosceptic faction.
Despite this, even ODS, according to Alexei Mitrofanov, is not discussing the option of the Czech Republic leaving the EU.
“ODS has two wings. Fiala is a rather pragmatic wing, but there is a Claus wing.” [Вацлав Клаус, бывший президент] are tough Eurosceptics. But I think that taking into account the fact that ODS will slightly balance TOP 09 and all the others, then, most likely, the attitude towards the EU will improve significantly, “says political scientist Preobrazhensky.
“In the end, you don’t have to deal with the prime minister, who, according to European auditors, was essentially stealing European subsidies (Babis is accused, for example, of illegally receiving EU subsidies totaling 2 million euros for the construction of the Stork’s Nest complex. The European Commission also believes that Babis has a conflict of interest, because he can influence the allocation of subsidies to his business, despite the fact that he transferred him to a trust fund in 2017. Babiš denies the accusations – approx. BBC) for Czech small and medium-sized businesses “, – political scientist.
“The line of the Czech government often did not coincide with the line of the president, and it was very expressive and did not take into account any protests,” Mitrofanov recalls.
“. with the same intensity as before” – sums up Mitrofanov.