“The export duty on gas is 30% of its selling price. If we assume that the sales price in Europe is $ 310 per thousand cubic meters (slightly higher than Gazprom’s conservative forecast of $ 270 per thousand cubic meters), and the volume is 183 billion cubic meters, then the volume of export duties from the European direction alone will amount to about $ 17 billion. “- said Kaufman. He recalled that in 2020, the volume of duties on sales to non-CIS countries, including China, amounted to 422 billion rubles, or $ 5.8 billion at the current exchange rate.

“Increased income tax. It should be noted that the relatively low selling price of Gazprom is associated with partial pegging to more distant contracts than spot contracts, as well as partial oil pegging, ”the expert added.

Thus, even deliveries under long-term contracts will not give huge revenues to the budget from exports to Europe.

Marcel Salikhov, director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the ISMU National Research University Higher School of Economics, confirmed that the price of $ 1,200 per thousand cubic meters on the futures market does not mean that Gazprom sells gas to European buyers at the same prices.

“Gazprom’s contracts are tied to a greater extent to long forwards, rather than spot prices. Although the EU is a key market for Gazprom (about 80% of pipeline gas exports), there are other markets, ”Salikhov added.

He cited the example of Belarus, which receives gas at prices below the current price level in the EU. A similar situation is observed with shipments in China. According to the Federal Customs Service, in July 2021, the average export price of Russian pipeline gas was $ 245 per thousand cubic meters, and the TTF spot price was $ 466.

“Thus, the effective export price is lower than the spot price level. We estimate that in 2021 the average price for Russian gas exports is about $ 280-300 per thousand cubic meters (in 2020 – $ 124). This will lead to an increase in the duty, amounting, according to our estimates, to about 1.1 trillion rubles, that is, 2.3 times more than last year and 60% more than the proceeds of 2019 ”.

According to him, another channel will be the growth of Gazprom’s profits, which means an increase in income tax.

“In 2020, Gazprom’s net profit amounted to RUB 135 billion. Income tax payments amounted to RUB 29 billion. “That is, the effective income tax rate was 21% (29/135),” Salekhov said.

In 2021, against the background of record high prices, the expected profit of Gazprom reached 2 trillion rubles. Accordingly, the tax payment for the size is about 420 billion rubles, the expert added.

Putin on gas prices

In early September, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that countries that have signed long-term gas contracts with the Russian Federation may “rub their hands”. He explained that such states receive Russian blue fuel cheaper in terms of world energy prices.

“On the free market in Europe – $ 650 per thousand cubic meters. It was the clever guys who invented the market pricing for gas in the last European Commission. And here is the result for you. But our approach is different, we also have market pricing, this price is tied to the price of oil. Nobody regulates it, the market is regulated, but the fluctuations are softer, ”Putin said.

He recalled that in the same Germany, Gazprom sells gas at $ 220 (at that time) per thousand cubic meters. The price will rise in line with the rise in oil prices.

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