Russia paved the gas route to China through Central Asia
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan ended up in countries transiting Russian fuel
The head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Roman Sklyar, signed the road map. Photo from www.gazprom.ru
Kazakhstan and Gazprom signed a roadmap for cooperation in the gas industry. Astana is interested in expanding its gas transportation system, gasification of northern and east African countries, as well as in ensuring the volume of transportation of Russian energy carriers to third countries, as well as in limiting Kazakh gas at the Orenburg GPP. The “Gas Union” of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan finds contours. It’s up to Tashkent, the acute occupation continues.
Two gas-producing countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan this winter faced a shortage of fuel in the market. If Uzbekistan does not have enough of its own gas, then Kazakhstan, ranking third in terms of gas reserves, is nevertheless forced to purchase fuel from the Russian Federation.
According to Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov, 4 billion cubic meters. m of gas will be imported this year, up to 10 billion cubic meters. m of gas – until 2024. Fuel consumption will rise. This is due to the conversion of Alma-Ata thermal power plants and some industrial enterprises to gas, the launch of gas chemical complexes and, in general, the gasification of the country. In addition, plans for gasification of the northern and eastern Pacific territories.
In addition, under the obligation to cancel the contract with China, upon request, Kazakhstan is obliged to supply at least 10 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year. But, as the chairman of the QazaqGaz company, Sanjar Zharkeshov, gas exports will stop already in 2023, since all the fuel will go to close consumption.
The situation could be corrected by the creation of a gas union of three states: Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Each side has its own interests. It is important for Russia to redirect its gas from Europe to Asia. In this case, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan act as transit countries. Astana and Tashkent can get the missing volumes of fuel for the domestic market. The allies, fearing dependence on Russia, temporarily refrained from the proposal of the President of Russia because of the conditions of Gazprom (see NG from 01/16/23). But they continue to develop. And there is already the first result.
On January 18, St. Petersburg hosted a working meeting between Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Kazakh First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar, which resulted in the signing of a roadmap for a conference in the gas industry. Details of the document are not being used, but experts say it is the first step in discovering the gas compound that everyone will benefit from.
“The signing of an agreement between Kazakhstan and Gazprom is one of the steps towards the formation of a large project, which is commonly called a tripartite alliance,” Andrey Grozin, head of the department for Central Asia and Kazakhstan at the Institute of CIS Countries, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told NG. Thus, Russia has begun to implement a new energy strategy, which will be reoriented from the west to the south. “This is already a new state course of Russia, and it is obvious that neither Astana nor Tashkent require participation in this project. Experts agree that by the middle of the middle of the century, Southeast Asia will become an energy-consuming region. Expansion of the gas pipeline network. Therefore, it is necessary today to promote our raw materials to the southern markets,” Grozin believes.
Kazakhstan, occupying a central position on the Eurasian surface, will only benefit. “It is no coincidence that Nursultan Nazarbayev promoted Kazakhstan as a transit territory for trade flows and energy resources from East to West. Today, due to the changed situation, not only in terms of prevention of movement, but also in purely economic terms, the republic will become a transit territory for the movement of the same flows, but in the opposite direction. Based on our ideas, an interesting geo-energy picture has emerged, in which Kazakhstan can fit in,” the expert believes.
Uzbekistan, looking at Kazakhstan, has changed its position on the formation of a gas union, the director of the Man’o Center and Research Initiative Bakhtiyor Ergashev is also pulling himself up. “Proved gas reserves in Uzbekistan are not explained. Moreover, a gradual decrease in gas volume was recorded. At the same time, the consumption of the population, respectively, and the consumption of gas consumption, and this is a long-term perspective. Under these conditions, Tashkent will have to make a strategic decision on gas. For two years already, Uzbekistan has had gas in Turkmenistan (see “NG” from 12/18/22). But the fact is that this is a very capricious supplier. In addition, all Turkmen gas remains in China, which is entering the practical assessment of the fourth pipeline of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline. Therefore, Uzbekistan will always be in repetitions. It is important for Uzbekistan to find new sources of gas with the possibility of increasing it. The only option is Russia,” says Ergashev.
Russia, according to the expert, has a constant dependence on Russian gas, offering cooperation on its own terms. In particular, take on the obligations of Tashkent to export gas to China, and redirect these volumes for food needs. “Gazprom” is also ready to take ownership of the gas pumping capacity of Uzbekistan, we are talking about the Uzbek section of the gas pipeline Central Asia – Center. “Tashkent, as it turned out, is not ready to transfer them. One option could be co-ownership. It is to be expected that this will be a stumbling block in the negotiation process. Uzbekistan needs gas. Therefore, Tashkent will negotiate. The second such winter of the population will not survive. Already now there is a serious surge of negativity, and all the results achieved during the reform of the last five years will be canceled if the gas issue is not resolved,” Ergashev believes.
Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS, noted that if a gas union is organized in Astana and Tashkent through a geopolitical prism, because of the dangers of falling under the Western Court, then there will be no winners. Such a position is counterproductive in itself, because initially it creates conflict and plays against the interests of the participants.
“The beginning of the year in Uzbekistan showed that there are neither external sources nor external players who are ready to become a guarantor of the country’s energy security. There are small volumes of free gas in Turkmenistan, but in the force majeure regime they froze. If we evaluate the energy balances of the region, then only Russia can become a source of energy resources in Uzbekistan, where electricity consumption is exceeded. To do this, it must export gas to China through Uzbekistan and take the republic’s gas distribution system into balance, especially since Gazprom already maintains the balance of the Kyrgyz gas transmission system, which is connected to Uzbekistan. Accordingly, additional opportunities are suspected for the Russian company to expand work on the ground and distribute gas to the population,” Stanislav Pritchin told NG.