Germany, Ukraine | Olaf Scholz pushes to give tanks to Ukraine
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The play from Poland’s President Andrzej Duda sounded almost believable when he sent out a message on Wednesday last week that the country now wants to give away 20 armored personnel carriers for the Ukrainians’ defense struggle.
It was about tanks of the Leopard 2 type, and precisely in this fact the political stumbling block of the Poles was built in.
The Leopard 2 is manufactured in Germany, and it is clearly stated in the contract between the two countries that German approval is required before Poland can hand over the equipment to another country.
Trainer
Well, the Poles wanted to arrange a “round swap” between several NATO countries, so that their decommissioned Leo2 vehicles could be used in the neighboring country’s defense battle. And that Germany joined as one of the players in such a trade, Doda thought, must be a good idea. (The Green Minister Robert Habeck’s immediate reaction was that «we Germans cannot stand in the way if other countries want to contribute in this way.»)
Ever since the beginning of the war, Chancellor Scholz has been under intense criticism from other NATO countries and his own coalition partners in the government. Both the Greens and the Liberals (FDP) have constantly pushed to pick up the pace – and to send armored vehicles and heavy artillery.
Read also: SPD skeptical of giving German tanks to Ukraine
And although Scholz has always claimed that he is on the ball day and night, no one can doubt that it was he personally who for long weeks and months needed measures by leaving the final export permits without the necessary approvals from the chancellor’s office.
No “alone time”
Scholz does not hide that he is more concerned with avoiding a situation where the Russians can react with an open war against Germany. (He started talking about the fear of nuclear war even before Putin had time to threaten to install such weapons.)
There are also mutterings in the Berlin circles that Scholz’s long-term strategy is for Germany – sometime in the future, when the war is over – to become the central peace broker in a process between Russia and Ukraine. That, too, must be an explanation for his being so reluctant.
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But with the Polish president’s gift package, the dream of the Nobel Peace Prize probably got a shot in the arm.
Until now, one of Scholz’s main arguments for scrubbing has been that Germany should at least not make a point of breaking out of the EU and/or Nato pack by sending Western weapons before someone else has done the same.
This is precisely the main argument that Scholz has used all along against discussing deliveries of Leopard 2.
Meets himself at the door
The Saturday before, however, President Emmanuel Macron stepped out and declared that France will now contribute with self-produced stormtroopers – and just as afterwards there was a message from London that the British will do the same. From Washington it is reported that the Americans have also changed their minds and are going to send 50 heavy armed assault vehicles.
Olz Scholz thus finds himself in his own trap. Because by refusing export permission for Polish – and eventually also Finnish – Leo2 machines, it will be him who breaks out.
On Friday, the Nato defense ministers and senior militaries from many countries will meet at the American base in Rammstein, Germany, where Lloyd Austin will discuss developments in the war and present American positions.
Asbjørn Svarstad
Asbjørn Svarstad started writing in the local newspaper Dagningen, for some years was linked to VG. From 1987 Dagbladet’s stringer in Copenhagen. Since 1996, lived permanently in Berlin and worked for various Scandinavian media. Works mostly with historical feature articles, political commentary and is an authorized guide in Sachsenhausen.
It will suggest to Olaf Scholz that the Germans are expected to pursue their opposition to Leo2 to Ukraine – and not to contribute any dozen either.
Austin will also push for Europeans to increase the speed of ammunition production – something the Germans have already done to some extent.
Fly?
It is expected to be a member of the “group of friends” who are told in plain text that it is no longer possible, because precisely the lack of heavy weapons and to defend themselves with will actually drag out the war into the long haul – and thus cost even more lives on both sides .
Therefore, there is much to be said for – as quickly as possible – enabling the Ukrainians to bite back strongly.
The real camel that Olaf Scholz and other top European politicians may have to swallow is if the Americans have also decided to support Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets to take back air supremacy.
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With political backing from Washington, Poland will then deliver all 40 of its Soviet-made M-29s – and it will also have other former Eastern Blocs.
Should this occur, the Germans will be expected to contribute clearly in both barter deals and deliveries of anti-aircraft artillery for defense against attacks on Ukrainian cities.
The defenders of the German Social Democrats say, against fierce criticism from all sides, that the government is actually behind extensive arms shipments, humanitarian aid – and not least billions of euros.
Farewell to the Minister of Defence
It has also not helped the situation that Defense Minister Christiane Lambrecht (56) is obviously unable to walk past a single dog litter without stepping in the middle of it.
Within a year, Lambrecht was poised to be named the most unpopular defense minister since the Federal Republic was founded. The long series of small and large scandals was topped on New Year’s Eve by Lambrecht’s homemade video greeting, in which she stood in the Berlin rocket rain and talked about how great the previous year was – and how many huge exciting people had met his journey.
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Before the weekend, Lambrecht finally decided to throw in the cards when she informed her closest employees that she will be resigning one of the next few days.
Without such a major in the head of this important department, Olaf Scholz is now forced to point out a person with experience from – and knowledge of – the military. Thus, he also has to fear that the new minister cannot be steered around the manege at will, as was the case with Lambrecht.
In the future, Scholz can therefore risk that his own defense minister also takes a positive stance towards expanding arms aid eastwards.
Nobel Peace Prize?
German commentators are anxiously waiting to see if the chancellor will bow to Leo2 pressure from near and far even before the Rammstein meeting on Friday – or if Scholz will first get American backing.
But few doubt that sooner or later he will have to say “yes”.
And thus he can probably also bury any visions of the coveted peace prize.