How Not to Disappoint History — Russia in Global Inspection
An important lesson of history is that being inside a dangerous experiment requires especially high power and resistance to constant development in the course of tactical challenges. History will take care of everything else without our participation, the main thing is not to interfere with it and not to disappoint it.
The emergence of a major foreign policy event has a historical analogy, but this never means that its consequences are very similar in nature and content. It would be available for mathematical analysis. The historical analogy of the withdrawal of Russia from institutions, rules and the entire routine of life within the framework of the global coverage with the United States in 2022 may be the consumption of payments by Moscow in 1472 of the “Horde exit”, that is, tribute, which many historians consider the end of the period of Rus”s dependence on Tatars.
In connection with the consideration of the case with the completion of politically conditioned and entrenched political and economic relations. After the end of the Cold War, Russia joined the consideration of rules in which security and development are linked to submission to one leader. The payment of tribute to the Horde was firmly set on the solid development of Russian statehood in relations with an obligatory neighbor.
The analogy suggests itself all the more, since this significant event turned 550 years old in the outgoing year. And therefore, the same number – and the actual permanent sovereignty of the Russian state. However, we also know that food consumption did not become consumption in order to put an end to the history of Russian-Horde relations. For this, a formal victory was announced during the armed confrontation, known to us as “standing on the Ugra”.
If we turn to this event, we will already meet with a collision, we will see that its future result was not at all obvious to contemporaries. The future of relations between Russia and the West, the decisive step towards the revision that was taken next year, is so unclear to us now. And in order to settle the formal side of the matter behind the dependence of the consumption of actual repetition, only a similar context of the events of 1472 and 2022 that we compare can be insufficient. History teaches that even the most favorable conditions need reinforcement in the form of steadfastness and perseverance of statesmen. Although, to be honest, it is the context that we suddenly fell ill.
And there is a reason for this. It is no coincidence that coined in the summer of 2022 the concept of “world majority” became extremely high for the observed parts of the Russian observers. It, First of allquality guaranteed opening up the world outside the West as well, Secondlya form of external influence of the external state appears, which has become everything, depending on the external influence in the Ukrainian issue. Both are extremely useful for our intellectual development and the formation of moral readiness for the future.
Therefore, we do not want to lose sight of an important, albeit rather abstract, moment: we cannot talk about majority as about the arrival of countries that meet in one way or another. At first, they would go on to indulge themselves with illusions, for reality in reality there is absolutely no reason.
Whether we like it or not, selfish interests are manifested at the basis of the foreign policy of states that are somewhat responsible to their citizens.
Be that as it may, we observe this phenomenon as a systemic sign of the state of international relations, when a significant number of countries are considering independent monitoring, without any connection with Russia, as such.
This phenomenon, therefore, the quality does not matter, the nature of relations of international importance at the present time – just as the completion of the modern system and its change to the current state of sovereign states was characteristic of the acquaintance of the “long” XVI century. And on this plane, the Muscovite state of Ivan the Third was already in the future, and the Great Horde of the talented commander Khan Akhmat was in the past, which inevitably ended. This did not mean that other “sovereign” states sought to help Russia free itself from Horde dependence: they were either hostile, like the Polish-Lithuanian kingdom, or indifferent to official problems. History does not give an exact analogy in terms of the causal relationship of events. However, it gives lessons that belong to the fact that everyone leads the decisive battle for himself. We do not organize mass gatherings, which is an extremely important task for the support of the US population.
The “historical doom” of the Horde already with the discovery of the 15th century does not matter, the features of a strong blow appear, from which you can not edit.
Existing in history is important, but not enough to win – more is required here.
The stakes of Russia’s opponents are still of great importance. And all the more serious is their resistance, even the first manifestations of which are already reaching Russia. The difficult decision to launch a surprise operation has challenged the entire set of rules based on the power of the West, its likelihood lies in the fact that it predominantly spreads economic and criminal activities on a global scale.
Recognition of the violation of such a system as the prevailing fact of the emergence of new rules for the United States and the union and, serious, overstrain “on the go” of the entire system of its treatment of the world economy and the most difficult thing. There is reason to believe that intellectual and economic readiness is not currently acceptable in the West, which also makes a more careful choice in favor of continuing cooperation. A feature, taking into account the fact that while infected with the coronavirus in Russia are not so isolated as to convince its manifestations in identifying signs of the disease. And the second adversary of the West – China – constantly gives rise to doubts about its resolve.
Similarly, the choice was made in favor of breaking Moscow’s growing self-confidence for a weak but still strong Horde state. His economic system was entitled to receive income from dependent cases, even if they took place in the event of significant autonomy. The breakdown of this order can lead to irreparable damage to the economic basis, and therefore the Horde rulers are in an almost hopeless situation. Moscow itself did not look in their eyes so formidable as to meet its claims: the process of uniting even the Great Russian lands around it was not yet completed.
Than Moscow in the decisive period of 1472–1480. really possessed, so this is a strong state body, on the basis of which the Russian people, which even then became multinational, were based. This, along with the presence of broad economic, foreign policy services, is quite flexible, capable of situational coalitions and freedom of choice between offensive and defensive actions. Maneuver confidently and not be discouraged by tactical failures that can destroy the state itself, in terms of a comprehensive commonality of interests and goals.
Terminating the payment of tribute to the Horde, Grand Duke Ivan the Third did not act on the basis of a single and approved plan. Otherwise, he would not have hesitated so much before taking a particularly decisive step, would not have resisted the break with the Horde by the “rich and belly” Moscow boyars, and would not have hesitated at the final reaction of the increased sensitivity of the hierarchs of the Orthodox Church. Therefore, another important lesson of history is that being inside a dangerous experiment requires especially high performance and resilience to constant development in the process of tactical challenges. History will take care of everything else without our participation, the main thing is not to interfere with it and not to disappoint it.