The 3 scenarios of political developments in Greece – The Government of national purpose against eavesdropping… and anarchy
In political circles, there are 3 scenarios that show small or greater chances of confirmation…
Early April – April 9, 2023 – or the May that will hold the elections in Greece.
The trends have been recorded in the opinion polls and the order of the parties in the electoral contest with New Democracy (ND) first, SYRIZA follows and PASOK in 3rd place… is a new development…
What is not expected and remains unclear is who will govern…
In political circles, there are 3 scenarios that show small or greater chances of confirmation…
Who will ultimately rule will depend
1) From the percentage that New Democracy will receive.
If the New Democracy gets 32% in the first election, then the possibility of self-reliance is zero.
With 32%, it will be a serious political deterioration of the ND and a political defeat for Mitsotakis.
If the ND receives 36% – an unlikely scenario – then the chances of self-reliance in the event of a second round increase sharply for the New Democracy…
2) The percentage that PASOK will keep after starting from 15% finally seems to land at 10% to 11%
3) The number of parties that will enter the Parliament, as there is a high probability that it will be 7 parties parliament good development for parliamentary work bad development for Mitsotakis plans.
4) The entry into Parliament of the Greek National Party of Ilias Kasidiaris.
Entry into the Hellenic Parliament will be the biggest blow for New Democracy.
It will remove at least 8 MPs from the 10 that Kasidiaris’ Greeks will receive from New Democracy.
It will be a political defeat for those who decided to convict Kasidiaris since he remains in prison on charges of hate speech.
It will highlight in the political scene that the imprisonment of Kasidiaris was a political trick.
The three political scenarios
Scenario of co-government of ND with another party or group of MPs
A scenario that is circulating and should not be underestimated is the co-government of New Democracy or with the Hellenic Solution party of Velopoulos, a not improbable scenario but it requires a second electoral contest.
The speculations that they will pay Velopoulos to form a government with the ND are unfounded since politically the Greek Solution is over, but not Velopoulos who will be integrated into the ND.
The rumors that the PASOK MPs under Loverdos will leave and cooperate with the ND, we consider that there are no chances since it is a political immorality of manipulation of a kind…
If Loverdos wants to cooperate with ND, he should not be a candidate with PASOK.
National purpose government script for wiretapping
A scenario that has been considered – also in business circles – is to form a government with SYRIZA, PASOK, Hellenic Solution and Mera25 (sum of 155 to 158 MPs) who will investigate the wiretapping case.
It is clear that the Maximos Palace is responsible for the wiretapping and it is a matter of major importance for the functioning of the Republic.
The scenario of the government of the National purpose for the wiretapping that personally targeted Mitsotakis and his environment and will create tremors in New Democracy.
This scenario scores political points in various circles…
Anarchy scenario
The scenario of anarchy is based on the following assumptions
A) That the ND remains far from self-reliance and the goal of 38% with a 5-party parliament.
B) That the parties that could potentially cooperate with the ND, ie Hellenic Solution and PASOK, refused to cooperate.
C) There is also a second round of the electoral contest and the political way out remains…
The scenario of non-governance should not be underestimated…
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