“The bottom of the birth rate, like in the late 1990s, is already next year.” As Russia falls deeper into the demographic hole, the expert slows down
The share of unsold apartments in new buildings throughout Russia has reached 66%. This has never happened. This is the highest figure in the history of the modern housing market in the Russian Federation. Why don’t Russians buy apartments in 2022? You can check to see if something happened. But there are actually many reasons. The most important is demographics.
“Today the situation in the field of demography is chosen. Unfortunately it is so. In 2021, ten months later, he started a war in Ukraine. Thousands of Arabs at the front, hundreds of thousands who emigrated from countries after the start of the invasion and in the second wave after the announcement of mobilization. But the demographic consequences of the war are still on the way. We are seeing the impact of past years.
1 million 300 children. 1.44 children per woman. In the year when Russia annexed Crimea, the birth rate was high – almost 2 million children. like in the late 1990s.
The key factor is the demographic gap. This is a legacy from the 1990s. Year by year there are fewer women of childbearing age in the country, and the modern family calls children later and less often. As can be seen from these figures, the population of Russia has not been growing for a long time. In 1996 there were 148 million. Until 2007, the time of illness passed. Then the condition led to a significant deterioration in the condition and a slow recovery. But then covid, followed by war.
“Firstly, some psychological shock that we see from the data in Buryatia. A failure of ten days, the birth rate then returns. birth rate of two and three children,” says demographer Aleksey Raksha.
The expert also visits the departure of young men from Russia. And the rapid growth of public anxiety after the start of mobilization. These are unfavorable conditions for the protection of children. If you add up all the factors, the minus will be big. The birth rate at the end of the year may decrease by more than 10%.
To overcome demographic problems, each Russian family must have three or four children. This was stated by the chief freelance specialist of the Ministry of Health of Russia on women’s reproductive health Natalya Dolgushina. However, demographers do not improve the conditions for such growth.