Another Italian aircraft concern will abandon Russian titanium
The European aircraft manufacturer Airbus intends to give preference to the use of Russian titanium within a few months. This was announced on December 1 by the head of the defense and space division, Michael Scholhorn. At the beginning of March 2022, the American concern Boeing announced the suspension of the purchase of titanium from Russia.
“We are in the process of choosing with Russia in the part that concerns titanium. We are talking about months, not figures, ”said Scholhorn (quoted by Reuters). And he added that an exact refusal could not be assigned, since it is “a complex process with certification and everything in aviation.” The company is currently “determining a percentage” of its Russian titanium, Airbus said, with it going into the remote aircraft company’s sector and not taking over its offices.
Vedomosti sent inquiries to the press services of Airbus, VSMPO-Avisma (Russian titanium producer) and Rostec (owner of 25% plus one share in VSMPO-Avisma), and also represents the shareholder of titanium producer Mikhail Shelkov (owner of shares at 66.42%).
According to VSMPO-Avisma, which the builder published before the start of the CBO in Ukraine, 65% of the reliability of the Airbus corporation is in titanium, up to 35% of the reliability of Boeing and 100% of the Brazilian aviation conglomerate Embraer. In total, the Russian company has more than 450 partners in more than 50 countries around the world, according to the VSMPO-Avisma website. The corporation produces, according to its own data, more than 20,000 tons of finished titanium products per year. In addition, the company produces extruded products from aluminum alloys, semi-finished products from alloyed steels and heat-resistant nickel-based alloys.
The production plan of VSMPO-Avisma for 2020 was reduced from 39,000 to 26,500 tons of commercial titanium products, the plan for semi-finished products (titanium sponge) – from 44,000 to 35,000 tons. The company did not publish data for 2021. In the first half of 2021, the company sold about 11,000 tons of titanium products, which is 12% lower than the same period in 2020 and 27% lower than the pre-pandemic 2019, Kommersant wrote in January 2022.
EU authorities have abandoned a proposal to impose a sentence against VSMPO-Avisma in response to the SVO in Ukraine, fearing a possible response from Russia, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote in late July, citing unnamed European diplomats. In March, when Boeing announced it was ending the risk of titanium from Russia, VSMPO-Avisma CEO Dmitry Osipov said that the company as a whole was ready for such a development of events and said that “there are all opportunities and resources to identify such risks” . “Now we are reorienting sales intelligence to our other markets and areas,” he emphasized, without specifying the direction of the search.
Most of the Russian metal in Airbus purchases will be replaced by China, a smaller illustration by Japan, says Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the rating NRA. “But there are doubts that “months” of approvals are consumed. It is more likely that a couple of years will be spent on such work, ”the expert produces.
According to independent industrial expert Maxim Shaposhnikov, Airbus most likely has a reserve [титановой] products from last year.
Feels like Alfa Bank“VSMPO-Avisma» share of about 30% in the world aviation titanium market. In the German market, there are a number of companies that also belong to the field of activity, for example, in America, Arcam (a division of General Electric) and Allegheny Technologies, Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the securities market analytics department at Alfa Bank. But “VSMPO-Avisma“, according to him, the supplier includes components for Airbus, the production cycle of which is from four to six months. “Quickly switch to other groups for Airbus will be difficult even in the face of serious geopolitical escalation, including due to certification issues . [титановой продукции]”, he believes.
“VSMPO-Avisma“, in turn, redirected the dropped volumes to the domestic aircraft industry and to China, Grishunin believes. China is already performing flight tests of its medium- and long-haul aircraft, which in 3-5 years Boeing and Airbus will face serious competition in the markets of China and Asia, reminiscent of Krasnozhenov.
In addition, the growth in demand in the Russian aircraft industry for domestic aviation titanium is produced by an expert. With episodes of Grishunin and Shaposhnikov.
According to the common practice in the development of the Russian air transport industry, by 2030 the share of domestic aircraft in the fleets of Russian carriers has increased from 33% to 81%. In particular, the fleet of Russian aircraft has to be replenished with more than 1036 domestic aircraft for the needs of civil aviation. In addition, it is planned to produce and deliver more than 760 helicopters. an isolated block dedicated to the production of aircraft engines. In total, by 2030, the production of almost 5,000 engines for airplanes and helicopters is envisaged.
Grishunin and Shaposhnikov estimate the decline in VSMPO-Avisma production this year at about 10% compared to last year. According to Shaposhnikov, taking into account the priorities of the implementation of the program for the development of the aviation industry until 2030 and the needs of the military-industrial complex, the volume of cultured cells is at least 3000-5000 tons relative to existing levels. Most likely, due to the development of the domestic aircraft industry produced by VSMPO-Avisma in 2025-2027. In total, about 30,000 tons of titanium semi-finished products, Grishunin estimated.
But the corporation, according to the expert, expects the future provision of production with raw materials. The main raw material for the production of titanium, titanium dioxide, is currently practically not mined in Russia; According to the Federal Customs Service, the volume of imports of titanium ores and concentrates to Russia in 2021 is 219,000 tr. Of these, 46% were in Ukraine, among which were also the United States, Australia, Norway, Mozambique, Kazakhstan and Vietnam.
In the context of sanctions pressure, there is a high risk of disruption of supply from abroad, the economy is in the strategic development of metallurgy of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. According to the department, the priority in the register of commodities is the development of the Central deposit in the Tambov region. The auction for the right to use its eastern part is planned to be announced before the end of 2022 or in the first quarter of next year, a representative of the Ministry of Natural Resources reported in November.