A hard winter is coming in Moldova – the winter of real independence from Russia Moldova | DW
The significant increase in current will generate chain reactions. Moldovans already pay three times more to see than, for example, consumers in Romania. Even so, there is gas shortage. Starting from November 1, Moldova is electro-energetic without Russia. Russian gas is still coming, but less and less despite the contractual commitments assumed by “Gazprom”. At the present time, Russia delivers only 44% of the volume of gas needed by Moldova. In order to save this amount of gas for households that can only heat on gas, the state switched the thermal power plants, which ensure centralized heating, to fuel oil. To those who heat themselves with stoves, the Government sells them firewood at the state price (affordable) and offers them the monthly aid period, in order to receive a monthly aid of 700 Moldovan lei (equivalent to 35 euros).
Romania helps, but the price is suffocating for Moldovans
On November 1, the Cuciurgan Power Plant, subordinated to the pro-Russian separatist regime in Tiraspol, completely stopped supplying electricity to Chisinau, and the Republic of Moldova began to gradually import electricity from Romania. It continued to buy, in parallel, energy from Ukraine as well until November 15, when the first massive attack by the Russian occupiers on the Ukrainian energy system took place. Ukraine found itself with a large power deficit and could no longer deliver electricity to Moldova, so Chisinau began to buy expensive Romanian energy on the OPCOM exchange. This was possible after, in the first days of the war (February 2022), Moldova and Ukraine synchronized their energy systems with the European one, disconnecting from the Soviet system. If he had not done that then, today Moldova would be in the dark and without solutions.
However, the energy delivered to Chisinau by Romania is very expensive – five times more expensive than the Moldovans were paying until now. In “peak hours”, Chisinau buys energy from the European grid even for 351 EUR/MWh. However, the current rates paid by consumers were calculated based on the price of $55-70/MWh – price agreed with the Cuciurgan plant (controlled by the Russians), which provided, until November 1, 80% of the electricity needed of the right bank of the Dniester (Chisinau). Even at this price, for many consumers the bills were a heavy burden. But now it will be unbearable. In order to cover the tariff deviations, energy distributors asked the National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) to increase tariffs by 33%. The agency will make a decision on November 29.
Natalia Gavrilița: “A very hard winter is coming”
The government has identified 5 billion Moldovan lei (50% of external donations) to help, in November-March, families depending on the level of energy vulnerability. This aid will compensate approximately 15-20 percent of the gas, electricity and heat beneficiaries’ deeds.
All those responsible for the energy sector in the Chisinau Government, including Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița, warn that “a very hard winter is coming in Moldova”. “Since November, the situation on the electricity market has worsened. We do not have energy security. We have a few small quantity contracts and buy most of it from the OPCOM market in Romania. It is a daily market, where the prices are much higher than the contract that existed previously”, explained Prime Minister Gavrilița.
There is only one cheap solution – to worship Putin
From an energy point of view, Chisinau has no room for maneuver. All the non-political solutions Chisinau has are unbearably expensive for the population. The only cheap solution would be for Maia Sandu to go to Moscow and worship Putin, to get a lower price at. She said she would never do that, which has drawn harsh criticism from the pro-Russian opposition. That would be to justify Putin’s war against Ukraine. The stake of the pro-European government in Chisinau is external support – not in the form of credit, but grants. In order to irreversibly escape the Russian energy blackmail, Moldova needs money to be able to buy expensive energy. In order to last, this aid must come constantly in the next three years, during which it will be energetically interconnected with Romania. The electro-energy projects have already started, and the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas main is already operational.
In November, Moldova was left in the dark twice due to the Russian occupiers’ bombing of critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Ever since the Soviet period, the energy systems of Moldova and Ukraine are interconnected and automatically disconnect, in emergency mode, when out of balance. Certain political-oligarchic groups in Moscow and the separatist regime in Tiraspol are extremely irritated by the fact that Chisinau has identified energy solutions without the Cuciurgan Power Plant and is consuming less and less Russian gas. Russia and the Tiraspol separatists lose the main tool of blackmail and pressure on Chisinau, and oligarchic groups in Moscow lose money, because Chisinau no longer pays anything for energy produced by the Tiraspol separatists.
Russia’s odious plan, easy to anticipate if we don’t look at the energy map
If we analyze Moldova’s energy, they can be easily anticipated after strikes from Russia. The energy systems of Moldova and Ukraine are connected by two high-voltage overhead lines: the 330 kilovolt line from the north of Moldova (Balti NHE Dnestrovsk), which, from Ukraine, reaches the energy hub in Chisinau (at CET-1) and another line, to the south, of 400 kilovolts Isaccea-Vulcănești-Chisinau, which first passes through the energy node at Cuciurgan (controlled by separatists from Tiraspol) and then comes to Chisinau. Certain today Chisinau receives current from Romania through this voltage line. Under current conditions, this is a doubly vulnerable line. First, because of the Russian missiles falling into Ukraine, and second, because the pro-Russian separatists in Tiraspol can turn it off at any time with the flick of a switch. By the way, the exponents of the separatist regime are already demanding Chisinau to pay for the fact that they accept that Romanian electricity passes through this energy hub to Chisinau.
Having this technical reality and taking into account the fact that a delegation from Tiraspol recently visited Moscow, where they specifically discussed these energy aspects, we can assume that Russia will try, in the next period, to increase the stake of the Isaccea-Vulcanesti-Chisinau power line, which passes through Transnistria. More precisely, he will try to make Chisinau exclusively energy dependent on this power line, in order to put the Moldovan authorities, in the middle of winter, in a position to accept any condition of Tiraspol in exchange for electricity.
There will be a separate one through which Russia can try to create the Tiraspol regime “corridor” of negotiations with Chisinau – the decommissioning of the Northern Balti NHE Dnestrovsk line by bombing Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The map of the massive Russian bombing of Ukraine on November 23, 2022 perfectly illustrates this possible scenario.