Russia has already lost 90% of the European oil market
Sanctions naturally come into force in just two weeks, and Russia has already lost more than 90% of the market in the northern countries of the bloc, which were previously sent to search from the Baltic and Arctic terminals.
In the four weeks leading up to Nov. 18, Russia was supplying Rotterdam — the remaining European destination for trade outside of Mediterranean/Black Sea use — with just 95,000 bpd. In early February, more than 1.2 million barrels per day were sent to the ports of the region every day. Countries like Lithuania, France and Germany import in bulk a few months ago, with Poland repeating them in September.
Now three-quarters of the oil requested in Russia’s Baltic ports is destined for Asia, with Indian refineries buying oil to meet the grace period proposed by the US and the UK, which is expected to be backed by the EU. It is likely that delivery decisions will be made by January 19th.
It is expected that the G7 countries will announce marginal prices for Russian oil already in the environment. In the case of buying oil at prices above the level, it will not be possible to transport it on European and British ships, insure and use other services.
In the seven days to November 18, total probability volume from Russia fell to a weekly low of 2.67 mb/d, while the less volatile four-week average also declined, albeit to over 3 mb/d per day for the sixth week. The ongoing downturn has sent the Kremlin’s random picks from the oil trade to its lowest level since early January.
In the four weeks to November 18, the volume of oil on board ships bound for China, India and Turkey, the three countries that have become consuming Russian oil, as well as the volume of cargo on board ships, the as-yet unused final destination, increased to a record 2.45 million barrels. barrels per day.
The diversion of Russian oil to Asia is changing trade flows and extending the life of tankers that could be scrapped.
At the same time, tankers carrying Russian oil most often do not disclose their final destination. There has been a significant increase in the number of ships that depart from the Baltic region and have Port Said or the Suez Canal as their destination. It is quite probable that most of the ships begin to give signals of investigation in Indian ports as soon as they leave through the channel.
Oil from Murmansk was delivered to China via the Northern Sea Route through Russia’s Arctic coast. The oil tanker Vasily Dinkov arrived at the port of Rizhao on Friday, where it is now at anchor awaiting unloading.
Oil deliveries to destinations
On a four-week average, total offshore exports declined during the second week to an average of 3.07 million bpd. Over the next week, flows were still above 3 million barrels per day. Shipments to Asia reached a new high, while shipments to Europe continued.
Calculations do not include shipments identified as Kazakhstani KEBCO grade. These are the cargoes of KazTransOil JSC, which are in transit through Russia for export through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.
Kazakh oil is matched with oil of Russian origin to produce a uniform export grade. After the start of the military conflict in Ukraine, Kazakhstan rebranded to distinguish Kazakh oil from cargoes shipped from natural resources. Transit oil is exempt from EU acceptance.
Asia
In the seven days before November 18, shipments to localities, as well as shipments to ships without a final destination, which usually arrive in India or China, increase by the fourth week. Asian production reached 2.1 million bpd in an average of four weeks, with another 75,000 bpd coming from tankers, where offloading is unclear. Cumulative Reached a new high for the year.
All tankers carrying oil in an unknown Asian name, owned by Port Said or the Suez Canal, with the endpoints of offloading unlikely to be discovered until they have at least passed a waterway in the Red Sea. Most ships end up in India, some go to China, and sometimes to other destinations such as the UAE or Sri Lanka.
Note: unknown destination in Asia includes those bound for the Suet Canal from western Russian ports. Unknown vessels include tankers with no clear destination, as well as vessels that have transferred cargo to unidentified vessels.
Europe
Russian oil exports to European countries by sea fell to the highest level in a year, averaging 569,000 bpd in the 28 days to November 18. Compared to the period up to November 11, deliveries decreased by 131,000 barrels per day, or 19%. These figures do not include deliveries to Turkey.
Supply volume from Russia in the Nordic countries hit a low, with Rotterdam remaining a popular destination for supply in the region for the ninth week. In the four weeks to November 18, supplies to the region fell to 95,000 bpd, compared with more than 1.2 million bpd before the Ukraine conflict broke out in late February.
In the four weeks to Nov. 18, exports to Mediterranean countries fell to an average of 631,000 bpd, compared with 693,000 bpd in the same period through Nov. 11. Flows in the region including Turkey, which is likely due to the calculations in the Top section, in the Assembly from the second week. Deliveries to Turkey should be more than 300,000 bpd in the sixth week. This was usually observed before conflict on the ground. The country is expected to become an important destination for Russian oil once EU recognition comes into effect on Dec. 5.
Combined deliveries to Bulgaria and Romania were unchanged and increased to 146,000 bpd, less than half of the perceived peak. Almost the entire volume sent by users to the Black Sea coast is absorbed by Bulgaria. The country secured a partial exemption from the EU ban on oil imports to Russia by sea, which should have supported inflows after the ban due to a ban on supplies to other EU countries.
Prepared by Profinance.ru based on materials from Bloomberg
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