Stress and loyalty: what kind of reworking of Russia is Putin on September 30
When experts comment speech by Vladimir Putin and the addition of “new events”, then speak volumes. In particular, about the problems of the borders of the regions, which, unlike the Crimea, are far from being completely controlled, and about the uniqueness of such situations for the history of Russia. It is consensual – but with emotional feelings – to consider that after such a step of escalation with Ukraine it is potentially impossible (however, even before that, less and less inclined to agree – even Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoganil has lost an exceptional part of demonstrative optimism, the properties of a mediator). They discuss the transcription of a symbolic break with the Western world and the desire of the President of Russia to become an exporter of Western foreign trade (including appealing to traditionalists in Europe and the USA, spreading himself as a stranger in the global world). They are talking about the next Western sanctions, just introduced and upcoming – although the sanctions pressure should be such that growth, but now growth, for example, will lobby for the rejection of tougher measures.
Finally, they speak about the next identification of general assessments – so far at the verbal level, without the right to ultimatums and specific decisions (and this means that the sociological society is not yet fully “readable”), nevertheless, with increasingly clear hints of the possibility of reactions , which even in the summer seemed unthinkable.
But in public opinion, the main topic at the moment remains partial mobilization, which was discussed the day before, when correction request all the mistakes made in the course of it. So the current annexation of new cases to Russia looks completely different than the inclusion of Crimea in 2014. At that time, euphoria prevailed in society, bloodless accession looked like a miracle. In the summer of that year, many Russians defiantly went to rest in the Crimea to support their people, and patiently stood in line for the ferry to return back, because the bridge across the Kerch Strait had not yet been built. Now there are many photos of other queues on the network – at the Georgian and Kazakh borders. And the feelings that remain in Russia are much more pronounced than eight and a half years ago.
What sociologists say
The prevailing conflicting picture shows fresh research “Levada Center” (recognized by the Ministry of Justice of Russia as an external agent). On the one hand, Ukraine, attention to the situation around after the announcement of partial mobilization has increased sharply – “very” and “quite” closely follow it 66% (in August – 51%). The level of attention slightly exceeded the March record figure of 64%. 88% say they are conditioned by the Ukrainian events (in August – 74%; naturally, the rise is not very big, but the number of those who are “very worried” about them has grown more sharply – from 37% to 56%).
The predominant feelings about the announcement in Russia are partly the mobilizations of “anxiety, fear, horror” (47%), “shock” (23%), “pride for Russia” (23%) and “anger, indignation” (13%). Only 9% of respondents said about indifference. For comparison: February poll showedthat the beginning of the “special operation”* caused a feeling of pride in Russia in 51% of respondents, anxiety, fear, horror in 31%, shock in 12%, anger and indignation in 8%. It is noteworthy that the triad “anxiety, fear, horror” prevails even among viewers 55+, the traditional mood is the most patriotic (47% is the same level as the national average), Russians also have children and grandchildren.
Let’s add to these data the research of the Public Opinion Foundation. On September 18, 35% said that in their environment (environments of relatives, friends and acquaintances) an anxious mood prevails. A week later – already 69%. This is higher than during the most severe pandemic times.
it would have been destined, everything is clear – a turning point has come in public opinion. But not everything is so simple. Let us turn again to the research of the Levada Center. People continue to support their own – the level of support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces has decreased by only four points – from 76% in August to 72% in September. Among the youngest (18-24 years old), called in connection with the lack of patriotism, 55% of their own meet the respondents. You can, of course, talk about self-censorship, but let’s note that the answers to the “neighboring” question about mobilization show that there is not so much of it.
Approval of Vladimir Putin’s activity was controlled from 83% to 77%, but its level is still very high – in comparison with the ratings before the “special operations” and with the support of other politicians. In response to an open question about the trust in politics (despite the fact that the respondents themselves give names – they believe that this technique takes them to guess a “socially approved” answer), compared to August, the level of trust in Putin increased by 4 points, but still stands at 40% . In December last year, it was at the level of 29%, in January – 33%. By that time, the sharpness of foreign policy was growing, and the effect of “rallying around the focus” was already gradually manifesting itself, acting in crisis phenomena – when laws to power (usually of an economic nature) fade into the background, because the refusal to support is automatically accepted as support for strangers in a tough bipolar confrontation. Therefore, support for the authorities in such a situation is perceived by the majority of the population as the norm. The current poll shows that this effect of success – and in his speech he sought to strengthen this power of Putin, which for him is existential.
Mobilization resources
Before the announcement of the partial mobilization of the population for “special operations”, it was mostly aloof, “sofa”. Moreover, the state does not intervene somewhat in the private life of ordinary apolitical people. At present, the rules have changed dramatically – many observers of sudden events (or significant ones, through relatives and well-known ones) that are associated with a traumatic effect. But this does not mean that those mobilized do not go to the army – the remaining ones who have received access go, and do not return secretly. The queues at the border crossings are mainly made up of recruited, and not allocated, mobilized – although, they pay attention, not from the notorious metropolitan hipsters, but also from provincial small businesses and middle management. And yet, for the most part, Russians believe that “this is how it should be” not even from Soviet, but from pre-Soviet times, when universal military duty was introduced under Alexander II.
Quite predictably, in small towns and villages, ordinary conscriptions are much more successful, since the “Soviet” attitude towards military service has been preserved there – but the resource is close to an urbanized country, which is modern Russia, not as large as in the agrarian-industrial Russian Empire or even in the industrial-agrarian Stalinist USSR. Already the post-war Soviet Union quickly ceased to be a great peasant country – village writers grieved about the breakdown of village life, and in the post-Soviet period, after the restrictions on movement were lifted, the influx of people in large cities increased even more. As for the resources related to important issues in Russia, here it is also necessary to be careful in assessing – you can talk a lot and fairly about the properties of their paternalistic culture, but if you go too far, then another factor can work – alienation from Moscow.
What is significant with the appearance of people is also expected here. Some of these people proceed from the premise that they need to live “in parallel” with the state, advancing due to their qualities – even if you work in affiliated (formally or informally) with a rigid structure. The other part of the allergy went specifically to the civil service (including the security forces), but did not count on a quiet life with a stable well-being – and on nothing else.
A society of severe stress and at the same time remains loyal to the authorities – what happens next will largely depend on the dynamics of the coming months.
The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the point of view of the author
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