Fear of losing. Is Russia going to mobilize and annex Donbass? What they say about it in Spectrum country
After the expansion of the entry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Russia, amendments to the Criminal Code were adopted, introducing the concepts “mobilization” and “military”, as well as the announced referendums in the captures of the so-called DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine. Spektr tells why the Russian authorities went “all-in” and whether it will help her decide “Ukrainian question”, and how the demarche was answered in Kyiv.
The game “all in”
Talks about referendums on joining Russia for the seizure of the territories of Ukraine have been going on since the beginning of the war. The self-proclaimed DPR and LPR, it was about the occupied police units of the Zaporozhye, Kherson and Kharkov territories.
Edition “Jellyfish” reportedthat in the first weeks of the war, the Kremlin was sure that the referendums could take place as early as the end of April. But the Russian offensive faltered, and in the end, the vote first before the arrival of May, and then in the fall. The discussion was about September 11, respectively, the day of voting in the Russian Federation.
However, it was at the beginning of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that they launched the most successful offensive during the war, completely liberating the Kharkiv region, and now they are de-occupying the territories of September, the incidence of the DPR, LPR and pro-Russian structures of the Kherson region.
Where does mobilization begin?
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation originally called him “extraordinary maneuverability,” in Russia they began to talk seriously about mobilization. Thus, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, said that the heads of the Russian regions should “self-mobilization” and send a thousand volunteers to Ukraine.
“There is no need to wait for the Kremlin to declare martial law, or vice versa, sit back waiting for the end of the NWO (“special military operation” – approx. “Spectra”) in Ukraine. The head of every point in Russia today must find his readiness to help the state.
Each leader of the region is able to prepare, train and staff at least one thousand volunteers. On a national scale, this is a mandatory military contingent of 85 thousand people – almost an army! Kadyrov wrote.
Prior to that, on September 13, the leader of the Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov declaredwhat “special operation” has grown into a full-fledged will, so it is necessary “mobilization of forces and resources”. Earlier, a member of the Duma Security Committee, Mikhail Sheremet, said: “Without mobilization, a free population on the rails, including in the economy, we must not fully achieve results.”
At the same time, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov still on September 13 declared journalists in Russia “we are not talking about the full partial mobilization of those liable for military service. Vladimir Putin himself, in public speeches, bypassed those present on this issue, however, 20 deputies submitted to the State Duma and immediately accepted the consideration, which involves the introduction of such concepts into the Criminal Code as “mobilization”, “martial law” and “wartime”. Attention to it first processed head of a human rights organization “Agora” Pavel Chikov.
What and why to legislate
On September 20, the deputies immediately in the second and first responses to emergencies – and unanimously – adopted package of amendments, leading to a massive mandatory appeal of Russians to war with Ukraine. Firstly, the deputies introduced into the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation an appeal “mobilization”, “martial law” and “wartime”. Secondly, they introduced a punishment for those who have already received at the front, refuses to fight.
Unauthorized abandonment of units during the period of mobilization and martial law (article 337 of the Criminal Code) will be punished more severely:
- from two to 10 days – up to 5 years of freedom, and not up to one year;
- from 10 to one month – up to 7 years in prison, and not up to three years;
- more than a month – from 5 to 10 years in a colony, and not up to five years.
In particular, in the article “Accusations delaying punishment (Art. 63 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation), paragraph “l” of the first part. The words “in conditions of armed conflict or hostilities” are replaced by “during the period of mobilization or martial law, in wartime, or in conditions of armed conflict or hostilities”. That is, the commission of an incident in conditions will be punished more severely.
Articles about looting now appear in the Criminal Code (Art. 356.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) and voluntary surrender (Art. 352.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) with penalties of up to 15 and 10 years in prison, respectively, as well as articles related to violation of the terms of a state contract for a defense order (Art. 201.2, 201.3, 285.5, 285.6 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). Also convicted from the current 5 to 10 years for leaving the unit during the period of mobilization and martial law (Art. 337 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).
“This is what the fear of defeat looks like”
September 7 Secretary of the General Council “United Russia, First Vice Speaker of the Federation Council Andrey Turchak declaredthat referendums on “joining Russia” in the self-proclaimed DPR, LPR, occupied parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson parts “it will be right and symbolic” to be held on November 4, the Day of National Unity.
However, due to the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, these plans have changed. As early as September 19, the public chamber of the self-proclaimed LPR appealed to the representative office with a call to immediately hold a referendum on joining Russia, stating that “Kyiv nationalists have crossed all red lines.” The public chamber of the DPR addressed the post office with the same appeal, and later representatives of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions joined them. At the same time, at the moment, pro-Russian forces do not completely control any of the regions, and the offensive of the Ukrainian army is successfully continuing in the Luhansk region and Kherson.
In the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR, as well as in the occupied territories in the Kharkiv and Zaporozhye regions, a referendum has already been chosen for September 23-27. The head of the self-proclaimed LPR, Leonid Pasechnik, said that he had already turned to Vladimir Putin with interests “make a decision as soon as possible on the entry of the LPR into the Russian Federation following the results of a referendum.
Following the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Control, Oleg Morozov said that the Duma was ready to convene for an urgent extraordinary meeting in order to “take all the necessary decisions to make new decisions in the Russian Federation”. “Behind the entry into Russia of new invaders to protect citizens, territories on them,” Morozov said.
In Kyiv, they reacted sharply to the events of recent days and called hasty actions “fear of defeat” and “naive blackmail”.
“The enemy is afraid, primitively manipulates. Ukraine will solve the Russian question. The threat can only be eliminated by resources. This is a naive blackmail with threats and horror stories of “referendums”, “mobilizations only” from those who know how to fight with children and civilians,” wrote Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak in his own telegram channel.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba declaredthat Ukraine has every right to use its territory. According to Kuleba, neither mobilization nor a “referendum” will change anything – Russia will remain an aggressor country, and Ukrainian territories will continue to be free for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In the Ministry of Defense declared: “Rashists-reenactors in the occupied territories do not get tired of repeating the Nazi referendum on the Anschluss of Austria. The results of 1938 are expected. In return, they get the result of 1945.”
In turn, Germany and the United States have already mentioned Moscow’s initiative. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Berlin does not recognize referendums on entry to the Donbass and other regions within Russia.
Independent political scientist Vasily Zharkov believes that the amendments provide an opportunity for mobilization in Russia, decisions on some referendums in the occupied territory of Ukraine speak of Vladimir Putin’s determination to go through this war to the end.
Russian military historian Sofia Shirogorova considers the announcement of referendums and recommendations in the Criminal Code as a response to the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine both near Kharkov and Kherson, where the situation is also noticeably worsening – the Ukrainians have wedged themselves into the Russian position and they have a chance to cut off the Russian group on the rights of the Dnieper bank : “Apparently, in the Kremlin, the possible loss of at least some of the saves. The loss of Kherson could be another heavy moral blow. One thing is Kupyansk, and another thing is Kherson. On the other hand, the amendments to the Criminal Code, introducing liability for evading mobilization and surrender, may also be a “trial balloon”, because in society this measure is not popular.”
According to Shirogorova, even if mobilization is announced, how it will help the Russian army is not very clear: “There is no infrastructure for transportation, training and formation of new units from millions of untrained conscripts. Suffice it to say that the Russian army simply does not have the required number of officers. It is impossible to replenish their number with the help of storerooms.
Opposition politician, co-founder “Schools of Local Self-Government” Natalya Shavshukova believes that the referendums on the seizure of territories and amendments to the Criminal Code are Vladimir Putin’s response to the statement about the significant situation by Kadyrov, a number of State Duma deputies and propagandists, who, together with the security forces and conservative circles, cover the suppression of the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine and Putin himself in the domestic and foreign political arena: “The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the myth of the invincibility of the Russian army. The tour of Putin’s favorite Yevgeny Prigozhin to regulate prisons is a blow to the legitimacy of the President of the Russian Federation himself: the top recruitment of criminals to the front for personnel military operations of rapid reaction uniform is allowed. At the same time, at the SCO summit, Vladimir Putin did not look like a winner and one of the world leaders dictating the agenda. An excellent illustration of this is the video where he sits in front of Recep Tayyip Erdogan on a low bench next to Alexander Lukashenko. Another symbolic blow for the Russian elite, the alleged heir to tsarist Russia, was the demonstrative unpretentious representation of the Russian Federation to belong to the queens of Great Britain.
However, according to Shavshukova, having played along with the security forces and conservatives, Putin finally destroyed the social contract with his exports – freedom in exchange for stability. There has been no stability since the beginning of the war, the rate of change is comparable to the end of the 1980s. Preparation of the region for the regulation of mobilization and the presence on this stable basis of the cross.
Former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov says that the Kremlin, which suffered a military defeat, has returned to its familiar environment for managing the authorities of the Russian Federation: “waving your fists in the State Duma is much better than on the battlefield.” According to Gallyamov, the Kremlin is met with a willingness to take decisive action. He also believes that the attempt to prepare the ground for mobilization is a concession to the security forces and breaks the regime’s social contract with its exports. The expert considers such a move by the Kremlin to be extremely risky: “If it is announced, mobilization will fail. It was not popular even before the successful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now, and even more so, no one wanted to go to certain death. In his opinion, mobilization measures, if they start, can lead to social instability and threats: “People will choose what is better – to get hit in the head by riot police or burn to ashes from the blows of Ukrainian HIMARS. And it is not yet known whether this riot police will beat them – they were also very battered at the front.