The Russian economy in the second quarter showed the first fall in a year
The Russian economy in the second quarter was controlled by 4% year on year. This is preliminary grade Dynamics of GDP growth in the first quarter, during which Russia conducted a “special operation” * in Ukraine.
Prior to this, the Russian economy grew four quarters of the local area in the second quarter of 2021, should from Rosstat data. In general, last year the Russian economy grew by 4.7%, which, according to Rosstat, was the highest growth since 2008. The base scenario of the Central Bank, presented on August 12, assumes that GDP will be able to grow again only in 2024. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, in 2022 the economy will decline by 4-6%, in 2023 by 1-4%, in 2024 it will grow by 1.5-2.5% and by the same amount in 2025.
Analysts interviewees Bloomberg expects Russia’s GDP to shrink by 4.7% in the second quarter. “The economy loses four years, returning in the second quarter to the level of 2018,” economist Alexander Isakov told the growth agency. He forecast a slowdown in the fourth quarter as looser monetary policy supports demand. “Nevertheless, in 2023 the economy is losing another 2% after the decline in energy exports due to the European embargo,” Isakov said.
On its downside, the Russian economy will be at its best in mid-2023, Evgeny Suvorov, chief Russia economist at CentroCredit Bank, told Bloomberg. The Russian Central Bank expects developments in the first half of 2023, economic growth resumes “as [ее] perestroika,” said Alexei Zabotkin, deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, at a press conference on Friday.
After the start of the “special operation” in Ukraine, Western economists predicted that the Russian economy would shrink by 10% in 2022 (forecasts by the OECD and Goldman Sachs) or even more – by 11-12% (forecasts by the World Bank and Barclays). Bloomberg notes that a more “soft landing” of the economy is quickly recovering.
*According to the requirements of Roskomnadzor, when producing materials for use in production in Ukraine, all Russian media are required to use materials only from conventional sources of the Russian Federation. We cannot publish materials during which an operation called “attack”, “invasion” or “declaration of war” is carried out, unless it is a direct quote (Article 57 of the Federal Law on Mass Media). In case of violation of the requirements, the media may be fined 5 million rubles, and the blocking of the publication may also be continued.