Russia cuts off the main gas pipeline in Europe. Temporary for now, but the EU fears it will be forever
- Alexey Kalmykov
- BBC
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Russia’s gas supplies to Europe to a minimum: on Monday night, Gazprom blocks the main route – the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. So far, 10-day prophylaxis, but Europe fears that forever, and probably to the unpleasant.
In Germany, hot water is already being rationed and lights are being turned off. Planned for this week.
“The situation is very serious, and the crisis may further intensify. It is possible that Russia has stopped cutting gas supplies,” European Commissioner Kadri Simson admitted, who had not been identified until the Nord Stream was prevented.
Three years ago, Gazprom supplied Europe with up to 500 million cubic meters per day. In May of this year – only 250 million per day. At the beginning of July – 140 million, and at the time of the maintenance of the less powerful Turkish Stream, exports fell to about 100 million cubic meters per day. In the next 10 days, Europe promises only 75 million people.
“We need to prepare for limiting interruptions in gas supplies and even for a complete shutdown by Russia,” Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, warned the European Parliament to a significant extent.
The 27 EU countries cannot protect 450 million of their citizens, according to the second probability in the world, from a large-scale crisis. The time for action has passed. Therefore, the European Commission (in fact, the EU government) will present a prescribed crisis security plan by the end of this week, der Leyen said.
Details of the plan have not yet been revealed, but two main ideas are already clear. First, solidarity in the distribution of reserves and the availability of supply, so that all resources are at risk, the rich help poor countries, and those who have gas would not be on it if others completely ran out. And secondly, solidarity consumption: to agree on what to save on and whom to turn off first, if there is still not enough gas for everyone.
Putin threatens energy “catastrophe”
The Russian monopoly has been gradually screwing on the gas valve for a year already – since last summer. Last winter statistics turned into a shortage in Europe and a record jump in prices – first for gas, and then for everything else. This was even before the crimes in Ukraine.
And with the first invasion, the Kremlin chose mainly the weapon of the energy war against the EU, since Europe still cannot completely give preference to Russian gas, since in recent years it has increased purchases in order to replace “dirty” coal and nuclear energy, which is unpopular in Germany, with cleaner fuel. radiation with climate change.
The Kremlin’s gas noose around the neck of the EU has led to the collapse of the European gas market, prices for which have soared 8 (eight) times since the beginning of last year.
The only real alternative to Russian pipeline gas is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is shipped by sea in tankers. The main suppliers are the USA and Qatar, but the supply is limited. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Europe will double its LNG imports by 2026 and be able to open 40% of its needs, but this will still not be enough.
“The potential for replacing Russian gas with liquefied gas is practically exhausted,” analysts at the Brueghel Research Center agree.
If we reduce consumption in the next 10 months by 15% compared to the average forecast for 2019-2021, then we can assume that Europe consumes without Gazprom.
At the same time, in a number of countries (mainly in the west and south) it will not be possible to save consumption, while others (mainly in production and the north) will somehow cut down to 50% of gas consumption. This imbalance requires a pan-European approach to problems, Bruegel experts write.
Inventory volatility by technical means. The Kremlin denies involvement in the crisis and the consequences of the reform of the EU energy market and Western sentiment against Russia.
Gazprom says that they interfere with the scheduled repair of the turbine of gas compressor engines, so supplies are reduced. And foreign exchange withdrawals occurred to the fact that the Kremlin obliged the European participants to pay for gas through a Russian bank and a transit account in rubles. Everyone who left turned off the gas – including Poland, Finland and Bulgaria.
“Further use of the sanctions policy may seem even more difficult, without exaggeration, even catastrophic consequences for the global energy market,” he said.
Cold pools and dark streets
Europeans have no doubt that Putin is not joking. And preparing for a woman.
They do not believe in the technical reasons for the reduction in demand, because Gazprom can increase supplies through Ukraine, but does not.
We went through this recently, when, at the end of June, Gazprom appointed a planned preventive maintenance of one of the three gas pipeline routes to Europe – the Southern one, through Turkey. Then he did not begin to supply pumping either through the Nord Stream or through Ukraine.
The Europeans gasped – and began to prepare for a complete gas blockade.
It is fraught with a crisis, fan meetings and a recession in the European economy, which has barely recovered from the covid recession. Probably, with such volumes of gas consumption from Russia, it will be impossible to fulfill underground reserves by October-November, when the winter heating season begins.
They are 61% hidden is slightly better than last year, when Gazprom decided to leave its European storage facilities empty. If the sensor does not reach 80% in the remaining three months, prices rise to prohibitive levels, and growth slows down by itself.
In other words, people will stop heating, factories will stop, the authorities will nationalize energy supply at the expense of tax payers, switch to rolling consumption and quotas for the supply of light and heat.
The first to prepare for the apocalypse were the organized and prudent Germans, who buy a third of their gas from Russia. Germany is the only one in the EU to declare a second level of energy danger. The next and last – the third one – is already of great energy importance, when the state operator of the power grid allows you to limit and turn off consumption.
Not expecting this, the Germans save in advance. The German press is full of sensations.
In Berlin and Munich, the water in the prestigious swimming pool has increased by 2 degrees, in Cologne they dim street lighting to 70% after 11 pm, and in Europe they rent residential premises Vonovia warned residents that from now on, the heating will be at a maximum of +17 ° C at night.
If Russia completely cuts off gas, with economic activity in Germany could reach 13%, Prognos economists, hired by the Bavarian association of industrial enterprises vbw, came to the emission. Taking into account intermediaries and large transactions, they estimated the total damage at almost 200 billion euros in the second half of 2022 alone.
Not only the flagship automotive industry will be affected, but also the glass, ceramics and food industries, as well as the steel and textile industries. More than 5 million people may lose their jobs.
“We made a terrible mistake when Germany put one country in the import of energy resources to such a country.
“We are seeing an increase in the incidence depending on the demand for gas, and now we are trying to get rid of dependence in just a few months,” he describes the scale of tasks.