Kazakhstan suspects that Russia is using environmental attacks. Comment by Georgy Bovt
In Novorossiysk, the activities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium were suspended for a month due to events. Why this technical suspension of the uprising against the entire space of the EurAsEC?
By decision of the Primorsky District of Novorossiysk, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium forced suspend the activities of the sea terminal for the shipment of oil for 30 days to cover those identified by Rostransnadzor.
On Monday, July 4, in a telephone conversation with President of the Council of Europe Charles Michel of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev informedthat his country is ready to use its potential to export from France and the European hydrocarbon market, while expressing vulnerability to the French security in the world.
Now there is a hitch in fulfilling this promise. the identification of the Novorossiysk terminal, where Kazakh oil is withdrawn via the pipeline from the Tengiz field, was closed by an open court for a month. Along the way, Kazakhstan will incur losses from the suspension of exports in the amount of 300-500 million dollars. In particular, the countries of Southern Europe may suffer in the short term. The Tengiz oil and gas field is one of the main ones in Kazakhstan. It is carried out by the Tengizchevroil company, 75% of whose shares belongs Chevron (50%) and ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Ventures Inc (25%).
Objectively speaking, there have been environmental violations by the CPC, and they are by no means the first. As not for the first time the consortium forced detection of cases of violation, suspension of the port terminal in a judicial proceeding as a kind of “secure justice”. Nevertheless, in the extended geopolitical connection of many countries in Kazakhstan and beyond, they accepted the court decision on the forecast of pressure from Moscow, especially since environmental and sanitary issues have more than once become a reason for clarifying relations with those countries, what is happening exactly at this moment at Rospotrebnadzor
The decision of the court – and it has been ready for several weeks and may not have been predetermined – coincided with the appearance of information that the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan published to discuss a draft order regulating successive cases prohibiting the supply of rare goods to Russia. Tokaev, speaking for August 2008 at a meeting with Putin, declaredthat Kazakhstan does not intend to recognize such “quasi-state formations” as the DPR and LPR. And also that the country did not become a victim of Russia to examine his collection. Even earlier, after the events in early January, Tokayev emphasized that “not Russia, but the CSTO” applies to its spiritual contingent for approximate situations. In case of occurrence, he never expressed gratitude to Moscow.
Also, in recent times, widespread Russians have already discovered in the republic the establishment of rules in the financial sector, in particular, the complication of the possibility of opening Kazakhstani cards for individuals. On the other hand, while the Kazakh logistics route for the delivery of goods to Russia is working, the republic does not greatly slow down parallel imports, receiving good customs fees. However, in general, the aggregate of Kazakhstan in terms of conditions can be characterized as neutral, but non-allied, as established by the former norms and concepts of the CSTO or the EAEU.
Up to 80% of Kazakh export oil goes through the Russian heap. The extraction of this oil, like gas, is built on Western technologies, Western investments and is controlled by Western corporations. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, however, hurried assureHe stated that Kazakhstan does not make decisions on supporting anti-Russian alliances. If necessary, what is a voice in general for memory.
In the global oil market, the temporary blocking of transit for Kazakhstan did not show that these volumes could be compensated by other producers. However, Nursultan will certainly intensify the search for options for diversifying energy exports, bypassing the “toxic” northern neighbor. This was certainly discussed during the meeting between Tokayev and Azerbaijan Aliyev at the recent Caspian summit. It is possible, theoretically, to use the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan route, oil can be delivered there from three Kazakh ports in the Caspian Sea – Aktau, Kuryk and CatRo. There is a Chinese branch for oil transit, pumping through it can be increased. There are plans to build a new pipeline and connect to the existing infrastructure that goes from Turkmenistan to New Delhi. During a recent foreign tour, Tokayev achieved from Iran, discounts on rail transportation by 44%, and from Turkmenistan, three times cheaper. In Kazakhstan, a complete restructuring of export routes, including energy carriers, is estimated in two to three years. This is approximately how Germany learned to live without Russian gas during this period.
In the case of a consistent development of Russian-Kazakhstani relations, several cases follow. First, behind Kazakhstan is China, which has great interests there and does not allow too much pressure on the partner. According to some reports, it is China that imposes on the speedy curtailment of the emotional operation of the CSTO in January. Second. Kazakhstan has become dependent on Western origin and the technological process to a large extent, it has not become even remotely substituted for secondary signs. Third. In the event that Kazakhstan’s interest in the CSTO, but especially in the EAEU, weakens, a second illness awaits an acute crisis. And finally, there is Baikonur.