International volleyball ranking quirks: Russia climbed to 3rd place without playing in the Nations League!
Let’s explain how it happened.
Last weekend, a historic event took place: the Brazilian men’s team for the first time since 2001 lost its leadership in the world rankings, and Poland rose to the first line, which had never happened before.
But what is most interesting is that the Russian team has moved from fourth to third place, which is now suspended from international competition. It’s all about the specifics of the new system for calculating the rating of the national team.
THE RANKING IS BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE “EXPECTATION – REALITY”
Finding the calculation of the national team in the ranking of the International Volleyball Federation (FIVB) was as easy as shelling pears. Each of the tournaments – the Olympic Games between the World Championships or the League of Nations – had certain rating points, which were adjusted by the teams depending on the place taken. The rating changed only after major tournaments, and the changes were often cosmetic, as much was based on the achievements of previous years.
Everything changed in anticipation of 2020, when a new calculation of France’s rating is expected in the system. “In every match, every time matters. It will reflect the real strength of each team. We will spend a lot of time testing the new rating and it will make our sport fair,” said the FIVB. Ari Graça.
The rating has become more difficult to understand. The essence of the new system is in the register of the algorithm, which determines the probability of the probability of all six-fold analysis results (3:0, 3:1, 3:2, 0:3, 1:3, 2:3). There is a high probability that in the match there will be a meeting with an opponent in the rating and statistics of personal preferences between them. The algorithm determines the favorite and what “should be” the score.
The number of accrued and calculated points depends on the calculation of the calculated and actual results. The closer the actual score is to the predicted score, the fewer points will be found and deducted from the body. The further the actual result is from the intended result, the more points will be calculated and deducted accordingly.
The algorithm also includes factor values. At the Olympics, this is a coefficient of 50, at the World Cup – 45, in the League of Nations – 40, at the continental championships – 35, and so on.
Obviously, in the match Brazil – China, the algorithm most likely predicted a score of 3:0 using the South Americans. But they are sensationally pronounced 0:3, which is why they lost the first line. The Chinese also received a lot of points and immediately rose from 22nd to 17th place in the ranking.
The winner of the match gets the number of points, the loser gets the same number of points. Poland in the last matches of the League of Nations in Ottawa beat France (3:1) and thus helped Russia to rise to 3rd place. Russia’s rating froze at 352 and its movement became more aggressive only from rivals. The peculiarity of the impact of the rating is that it is updated daily.
RANKING IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF QUALIFICATION FOR THE OLYMPIAD
This year, the International Volleyball Federation has increased the coverage of the international ranking, making it a very important factor in the Olympic selection. In October 2023, the top 24 teams in the world (for the exceptional Olympic hosts France) will be split into three groups. Based on the results of the round-robin tournaments, the team from first or second places receives tickets to Paris 2024.
The remaining five remaining Olympic tickets will be distributed after the completion of the first stages of the League of Nations-2024. And here the world ranking will be key. First of all, the strongest rated teams from those continents that are not yet represented at the Games receive tickets to the Olympics. But if by this moment there are already representatives of Europe, North America, South America and Africa among the participants of the Olympiad, then the Olympic license becomes simply the best rating of the national teams of Asia without reference to the continents.
This innovation should expand the delegation of European national teams to the Olympics and reduce the number of weak teams from South America / North America. For example, at the 2022 Olympics, Venezuela is used from South America, since Brazil and Argentina use direct trips to the profession. Four years earlier, Mexico entered the Olympics because the license had previously been taken over by the US and Canada.
The format of the Olympic tournament itself has also changed. In Paris, 12 teams will be divided not into two groups, but into three. The strongest teams from each quartet will advance to the quarter-finals, as well as the two teams with the third best results.
Then everything is standard – quarter-finals, semi-finals and medal matches. Previously, to win the Olympic Games, you had to play 8 matches. Now the medalists will play only 6 games.
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