Energy divorce between Europe and Russia
In the Danish city of Esbjerg, which hosted a summit of the heads of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Estonia, the consequences for the European energy of the one that Russia unleashed against Ukraine were discussed. One of the decisions of the meeting was the decision to collect wind and solar energy – the summit participants, in particular, decided that it is essential to increase the capacity of wind and solar power plants by 2030.
Efforts often come with support and application guidance: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, also present at the Esbjerg meeting, said the Commission intends to “consume quickly from North America, depending on the required target of increased demand for wind power generation by 2050 up to 300 gigawatt years”.
“REPowerEU” as a way to get rid of addiction
On the same day, May 18, the European Commission presented the REPowerEU plan for European energy reform, the development of which was accelerated precisely in connection with the Russian war against Ukraine, but was already underway in Greece. Russia, which has been used by Moscow since the early 2000s and has clearly manifested itself both before and during the aggression, must be blocked forever.
The indicator of consumption of energy consumed in the EU for the full year, in 2020, consumption imported 57.5% of the total consumption of energy consumed, while imports from the Russian Federation amounted to almost 25%. This is the addiction that Europe has been sinking into for the past 20 years, until it became obvious that the habit of waiting for a gas pipe from Russia is dangerous to health.
A document published by the EU says that 85% of Europeans think: “how can we reduce dependence on Russian oil and oil in order to support Ukraine.” This means that the vast majority of Europeans are morally prepared for the serious difficulties that Europe may face when weaning from the Russian oil and gas needle.
The REPowerEU lists many of the actions for the reform that is being mandated, all packed into a compact 21-page document. Among them are energy conservation, diversification of energy supply sources and natural resources that replace the use of fossil fuels in everyday life, industry and electricity generation. All this in the future will reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supplies to a minimum, possibly to zero.
The “lightness of thinking” of the West in the issue of Russian oil and gas
However, at present, Russia continues to invest in its hydrocarbons by Europeans in conditions of acceptable stability: the norms of some European countries are not ready to discuss not only the rejection of Russian gas, but also an embargo on Russian oil. The sixth detention package was not discovered this week because the disagreement is primarily about the oil embargo, especially the one that has been hard on Hungary.
According to the French publication Les Echos, Europe, which voiced the Russian war against Ukraine, actually continues to finance it: “Despite the war in Ukraine, the Europeans finance the Russian army day after day, buying gas at the price of gold. Despite the appointment, the hype and the promise of an embargo, the application sends $200 million a day to Gazprom, the state-owned company that has a monopoly on Russian gas exports via pipelines, according to estimates by Thierry Braud of the Pau Institute for Research in the Sciences of Paris. That’s enough to open up Russia’s defense budget, which is estimated at $180 million a day based on past spending by the Center for Atmospheric and Energy Research.”
Eva van de Rakt (Eva van de Rackt), director of the office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation for the European Union, speaking May 18 at the world around the table at the British Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chetham House), said that now everyone is clear about the miscalculation that was built in Germany last two years:
“The aggressive war of Russia against Ukraine is an attack on European democracy and freedom. This war brought to the fore the geopolitical risk due to Europe’s dependence on fossil energy sources from Russia. No one can deny that this huge dependence on energy imports from Russia has guaranteed the Putin regime a huge opportunity to blackmail and destabilize Europe, while at the same time automatically funding the Russian military. In this case, it should be mentioned that the incidence of cases of cases of cases of ignoring the magnitude of the outbreak emanating from Putin’s authoritarian regime, despite cases of exclusion of cases of infection by countries and other partners in the EU in Central and Eastern Europe.
The director of the Brussels branch of the Heinrich Böll Foundation bitterly states that “citizens of Ukraine are subject to a terrible price for ignorance, laziness of thinking and observation of the opinions common among the population of Western countries.”
Member of the European Parliament for Germany Viola von Kramen-Taubadel (Viola von Cramon-Taubadel), a member of the Green/European Free Unions, recalled during a discussion at Chatham House that her colleagues in the green movement in Germany, the ruling parties do not cover Russia much in energy supply, but to the last 16 years have not been particularly listened to: “From the very beginning it was clear that Russia used energy as a weapon – literally since 2004, every time one of these countries did not behave in the way Russia would. This manifested itself during the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine, and all other neighbors faced similar situations at one time when Russia intimidated them using energy carriers.”
“Now it is extremely difficult to reduce the energy dependence (of Germany – D.G.) on Russia from almost 55 percent to zero. We understand that Ukrainians are asking us for this, and there are very good reasons for such a beautiful one, but it will be very difficult. It will be difficult not only for Germany, but for Germany in particular. However, the discussion of this problem in Berlin is in the correct appendix,” concluded Viola von Kramen-Taubadel. The position of her compatriots Ursula von der Leyen clearly meets the justice of such a presence.
Russia: political bravado in response to European steps
Moscow does not believe that Europe will be inclined to give preference to Russian energy resources. They do not believe so much that there was even a possibility of reviving projects whose death was officially declared. In particular, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who spoke about the energy sector, said on this Severnaya Zemlya that “the Potok-2 gas pipeline will be in demand on the European market,” although the project has been frozen for the time being for scattered reasons.”
A little earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again warned the Europeans how bad it would be to live without Russian oil and gas injections: “Rejection of Russian energy resources means that Europe systematically, for the expected future, becomes the region with the highest share of energy resources in the world … And this is in the most serious way , according to some experts, it could irrevocably undermine the implementation of part of the European industry.
The press secretary of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, also noted the topic of energy resources, saying that “Russia is actively increasing the infrastructure for exporting coal, oil and gas to the east”, and “energy consumption in the world, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, will grow steadily, therefore, regarding the demand for there is no doubt about Russian energy resources”.
However, one of the most respected experts in the oil and gas field told Voice of America that this was not the case, and that a more severe crisis could begin in the Russian energy sector – and therefore in the Russian economy as a whole – in the foreseeable future.
Mikhail Krutikhin: The European plan has every chance of being implemented
Founder and partner of the consulting company Rusenergy Mikhail Krutikhin believes that the Europeans have decided to zero out their dependence on Russian gas quite seriously:
“The German federal government is 3 billion euros to build (or rent) and supply terminals for receiving liquefied gas off the coast of Germany, the plan includes the capacity of all these terminals at 58 billion cubic meters per year – this is a complete replacement of Russian gas. Two terminals are already on the way, they should be installed by the end of the year. I see it everywhere – in Italy, Croatia, in Greece, where a second terminal is already being built, one is being expanded. Latvia is going to rent a terminal, Finland together with Estonia will install a small terminal. These are no longer just announced plans, but quite competitors are coming to rent these floating terminals.”
With oil, Mikhail says Krutikhin, the same thing is happening: “Germany is ready to give up oil right before the end of this year. Finland is refusing right now, and even Bulgaria is refusing. Every country understands that the alternative is blackmailing Russia, arm-twisting with gas and oil supplies.”
The founder of Rusenergy assesses the European plan as promising: “Unfortunately, they have been going on for a very long time, they have different documents, starting from 2006. And in very rare cases, where significant opportunities were found, what needs to be done: expansion diversification (included in the new plan), development of liquefied natural gas terminals (included in the new plan), establishing cooperation between European countries, increasing zones in Europe to if necessary, to transfer energy from one zone to another, not to use the same Russia, to dictate one’s will. I think that it has every chance of being implemented in some form.”
Usually there can be an “active turn to the east” for Russia, what is Maria Zakharova talking about? Opinion of Mikhail Krutikhin: “This is absolutely unrealistic”: “In order for gas to go to China instead of Europe, it is necessary to build an infrastructure capable of providing access to at least 100 billion cubic meters of gas per year. There are three deals: first, China did not agree on such a volume, and it does not have such plans to purchase such gas from Russia; the second – Russia is faced with this gas “shove” in China through Mongolia, meets with categorical rejection in Beijing; the third – in order to build such an infrastructure, such a “Power of Siberia – 2”, named for at least fifteen years, or even more.”
The expert concludes that in the coming years, Russia’s energy sector will grow breathlessly: “According to various indicators, up to 25 percent, and next year, perhaps up to 50 percent of all oil produced in Russia may be left without buyers at all. On May 15, Russian oil is widely distributed by all major traders.”
“As for gas, if the European market is sharply reduced for Russia by 2027, and there is nowhere else to put gas, then the time will come for Russia when it will reduce its total production. As a result of such income, fields are closed, wells are liquidated. Gazprom alone has half a million employees, and if we take into account the companies that serve Gazprom and its work, then there will be one and a half million. A significant part of the people left without work,” Mikhail Krutikhin warns.
The Rusenergy expert believes that Europe will get rid of oil and gas consumption before Russia can at least partially compensate for the consumption of the European market, if it happens at all. This will be, according to Mikhail Krutikhin, a powerful blow to the Russian economy, the causes of which lie in the beginning of Russia itself.