Alexander Razuvaev: “Add an order from the summit in Kazan to the same forum as SPIEF, only to the East”
The economist believes that Russia should take into account the possibility of more active cooperation with Muslim countries
Two weeks left before the opening of the XIII economic summit “Russia – the Islamic world: KazanSummit 2022”. This year, the main topics of the business program are the sharing economy, the introduction of financial and partner banking services, the halal industry, export development, entrepreneurship and investment. “The idea of Islamic banking will become very relevant in the near future. In 30 years, due to the Russian-Turkic economy, Russia will be very similar to the Golden Horde,” said Alexander Razuvaev, a convinced member of the Supervisory Board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers. On the eve of the forum, in the column for Realnoe Vremya, the expert talks about the problems of banking supervision in the healthcare sector in Russia and the prospects for cooperation with Asian countries.
“The idea of Islamic banking is very relevant in the near future”
In fact, Islamic banking in Russia is underdeveloped. I probably know that the introduction of mortgages has become one of the Tatarstan banks, perhaps some other financial institutions – just as a feature, a highlight in the product line. Of course, this is due to the fact that we still do not have proper legislation.
Western investment banks wrote five years ago that in this sector you can request from 10 to 15 billion dollars. Why not? The first recipients will be the Muslim republics – Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and the North Caucasian regions.
But these services will be in demand not only among Muslims. If applied, the viewpoint will be used. That is, if you are a Muslim, among the significant quantities you will definitely use the consumption of products. But, relatively speaking, if I am not a Muslim, but every day I buy ayran in a store, there is halal. And if I need dumplings, when choosing, I will take halal, because I think that this is a higher quality product. Therefore, I believe that Islamic banking will be in demand among many.
Now such a trend is the number of representatives of the Turkic peoples, Muslims continue to grow. If we look at the demographics, then Russia is in the worst position than in Europe, but than in many other countries in Asia. And if you take a breakdown, then the Turkic peoples give birth, but the Russians do not give birth. If we look at how demographics have changed over the past 30 years, after the collapse of the USSR, then the Slavic republics – Belarus and Ukraine, like Moldova, the Baltic states, are in the red. All Turkic republics, Central Asia are in the black.
I believe that in 30 years, due to the Russian-Turkic profits, Russia will be very similar to the Golden Horde. We will remain a multinational, multi-confessional country, and, of course, Islamic banking has a very good prospect. Another thing is that some officials still have a feeling of uncertainty about terrorism. Uno speaking, there are 70 mosques in Beijing, there are only six in Moscow. I believe that our federal government is a little lost this moment, although there is still time.
“The potential of Islamic countries is very, very large at the moment underestimated”
It is customary for us to consider that in May-June it was the main international economic forum in St. Petersburg (SPIEF). This year it will probably be canceled, because it is clear that no one will simply come. So let’s make the same kind of economic forum out of the Kazan summit, only tied to the East, Eurasia. I do not understand why our central government does not come out with this initiative. And the Russian blue chips, and above all, of course, Turkey – ideally Erdogan invited both Mr. Aliyev and the monarchs from the Middle East. The organization of such an international summit showed that there is no international Russia.
If we talk about the observed situations, with the exception of cases of the use of financial instruments, the eastern countries can close the issues of sanctions products. The case, of course, is export, and above all, companies from Tatarstan to Turkey or other Islamic countries.
Many Westerners leave, they put their business up for sale. This is due to the fact that it can lead to undesirable consequences. Let me remind you of 1985-86, when the Americans pushed through Saudi Arabia without any problems and it brought down oil prices. As I understand it, now they wanted a repetition, but the Arabs did not cave in. Accordingly, if they want to buy something, it should only be welcomed. Again, it will be a suitable color, moreover, the fast food niche is used. For example, in Moscow there is a teahouse at every stage, but these are restaurants for the middle class, maybe even for the upper strata of the middle class. And if there was something like that instead of McDonald’s, it would be good.
It can be said that the economic potential of using countries is very, very large in the world economy at the moment is underestimated. There are 1.5 billion Muslims in the world. Of course, there are very rich countries, but there are countries that are promising in terms of development, raising living standards and GDP growth. Uzbekistan stands out here, they competently carry out the transformation, they do not repeat Russian mistakes. The pandemic really knocked them down, because world trade has stopped, but in principle, the Uzbeks have a very good potential, and the possible entry of Uzbekistan into the EAEU from the point of view of their development is a very big plus. Uzbekistan has a peculiarity – 700 thousand people a year meet in their labor market every year. This is a lot. In 2019, they were recognized by The Economist as the discovery of the year. I believe that Uzbekistan is the most interesting country on the world map in terms of economy.
“I hope that Azerbaijan and Turkey will join the EAEU”
The share of the oil and gas sector in Russian GDP is 20%. Accordingly, if we are talking about investments, it can be anything. We sell quite a lot of things in Islamic countries, for example, chicken eggs, ice cream, but above all, of course, this is shown by the example of Turkey – weapons. Russian weapons are very high quality and cheap. Our country is the second largest exporter in the world, with an average sales of $15 billion. But American allies must buy weapons voluntarily-compulsorily, no one asks for them. And we work on market conditions. We have off-market supplies in Kazakhstan and Belarus, but these are the CSTO, our allies, and so on. Perhaps in the future the export of civil aviation.
If we talk about countries, then as an optimist I really hope that Azerbaijan and Turkey will eventually join the EAEU, and Russia will join the Union of Turkic States. We have Turkic republics, but the Turkic component in the Turkic language itself is strong, the nobility appeared from the representatives of the Golden Horde.
Besides, it is Azerbaijan, because trade with India will grow, as well as with Iran. Azerbaijan is a transit country, moreover, a military special operation closed everything, but on February 22, Putin and Aliyev signed official documents in Moscow, there are a lot of interesting things there. Further, of course, cooperation with Iran. And he is under sanctions, and so are we. In Uzbekistan, because these are cheap and high-quality agricultural products on our market, they will be in great demand. These are migrants who, I think, after the displaced persons of Uzbekistan in the EAEU will be here with sufficient rights. Uzbekistan also opens up on the part of tourist trips, which are not expected everywhere now, I think that this republic can accept Russian tourists. So far, Belarus is in first place in the CIS, but I think the Uzbeks will soon be able to bypass them. Moreover, everything is quite cheap there.
“I don’t expect devaluation”
The IMF believes that the Russian economy will fall by 8%. I think actually 3-5%. It is possible that it is a joke, or maybe not, perhaps the territory of Russia will be larger on January 1? I mean the DPR, LPR and some other territories, then if you count, there will be no recession at all. But if you look at Russia as it is now, 3-5% is not tragic.
I think Kudrin is right – it will take two years to adapt. What is important is not only imports, but also inflation in general, and social stability – many things happen in our country on the ruble exchange rate. If the reserves unfreeze, our shots are all dates. If they don’t defrost, we will live in the regime that we have now. But I don’t expect any devaluation. The key point is 19 million private brokerage accounts on the Moscow Exchange. It’s all the savings of the middle class. Money will blow away, inflation costs negligible money. Perhaps so, you can sell and get funds, although papers are, of course, cheap.
It is a pity that there will be no international financial center, but still the main thing now is the savings of the middle class and consumer confidence. Because if the savings are not burned out, people have the right not to become poor, they go and spend money. If, accordingly, savings have burned down, people have the right to become poorer, they do not spend money, this is fraught with a recession.
I think the only real problem is the brain drain. IT specialists and engineers are leaving. And they leave Russia not because they are not patriots, but because these are the requirements of their employers. But some of them will happen sooner or later. Yes, we will have a worse choice of goods, we will be similar to Belarus, but we will have similar imports. In fact, there will be no disasters!
Alexander Razuvaev
Reference
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors of Realnoe Vremya.
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