VZGLYAD / Russia expects three main words from Le Pen :: Politics
Marine Le Pendala understands Vladimir Zelensky: if France is president, then she can significantly cut her needs in Europe. But what are the chances of Le Pen defeating Emmanuel Macron? And how has her attitude towards Russia changed in the five years that have passed since the last election of the owner of the Elysee Palace?
“Zelensky asks for more than what can be given,” said Marine Le Pen. He really asks for a lot: closing the skies over Ukraine (in fact, nationalism in an air war with Russia), the status of an EU candidate, the rejection of Russian energy resources, heavy consumption and at least seven billion dollars a month (this is for now, then there will be more – general the fall in production in the country to date has amounted to 270 billion dollars, that is, Ukraine has lost half of its economy).
it is found that Zelensky needs exactly dollars, although the request was requested to the head of the European Commission, where the euro operates.
You can see from Le Pen’s face that she won’t give the French the money themselves. And this is the basis of one of the two fragile hopes that you will be able to overcome the power of President Emmanuel Macron in the second round of elections scheduled for April 24th.
The second hope is to raise the retirement age from 63 to 65, which Macron promises to implement after his victory. More than three-quarters of the French are against the reform, however, for those who are already retired, this is not such a fundamental issue. They are one of the “cores” of Macron’s electorate, while middle-aged people prefer their competitor.
But back to Zelensky, because the most remarkable thing about Le Pen’s statement is her tone. It is no longer customary to speak in such a tone as the president of Ukraine in the EU – they either admire him, or sympathize with him, or, when he becomes especially impudent, they express confusion and regret, as in the case of the scandal around German President Steinmeier.
It is important for Russia not to take this personally: Le Pen is not a “pro-Russian candidate”, as her sympathizers here and enemies in the EU say, but the candidate of French national egoism.
Those who have their own skin closer to the body. Those who do not want rising prices for gas and gasoline as a consequence of the economic war with the Russian Federation. Those who are not happy with migrants from Africa and from Ukraine because of the lack of jobs. Those who believe that priorities should be tied to a foreign policy to improve living standards.
She is the candidate of the “deep people”, who does not like that France is working out the US foreign policy economy in Europe to the detriment of its own economic interests.
As for the Russian theme, it openly imposes – it covers issues that you don’t want to talk about. Due to the forced nature of such comments, they turn friend to friend.
“When the law ends, I will propose a strategic rapprochement between NATO and Russia.”
Le Pen said so. But Le Pen also demands that he withdraw France from the unification of military command in the event of his victory. And this is also not directly related to Russia.
In this position, Le Pen has not changed for many years, but in many other cases it has become much more moderate than predominant. For example, the leader of the “National Rally” was no longer discussed for his withdrawal from the EU, instead he discussed reform to transform into a union of sovereigns – “Revisiting the European Commission’s attitude, which has failed in its European design.”“.
In general, her campaign is based on two messages. The first is taking care of people and solving their problems (in this it is a bit like Angela Merkel’s campaign). The second is association (for the sake of justice, for the sake of the future, etc.), aimed, among other things, at taking to the polls those who are skeptical of Le Pen, but hate Macron.
This tactic works well in the provinces, especially in the northwest and southwest of France, but does not work at all near Paris. The metropolitan bourgeois snobs are ready to significantly increase the self-esteem of Eric Zemmour with his image of a subtle intellect, but not for the “upstart” Le Pen. Since the elections five years ago, her result in Paris has not increased, however, Macron’s result there is also much lower than the national average, the winner in the Eastern city of France was unexpectedly the ultra-left Trotskyist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, gaining more than 30% of the vote.
Parisian journalists are the very people who regularly arouse suspicions of terrorism. Le Pen understands that public opinion is on the side of Ukraine, because almost all media without exception are on the side of Ukraine.
At times like these, it’s good to hear that Le Pen still considers Crimea part of Russia, emphasizing that the Crimeans stepped up their will in the referendum. As, perhaps, the fact that she categorically does not like the idea of imposing any sanctions on Russian energy resources, which the EU is stubbornly pushing the US with satellites like Poland.
However, she is not at all the “friend of Russia”, as she is used to be considered according to the model of 2017. “In general”, the leader of the “National Association” supports anti-Russian certificates and condemns the special operation in Ukraine. They call it “genocide”, as Joe Biden refuses, but Macron also refuses, for this reason, for now.
In other words, against the pan-European and pan-French background, Le Pen is now also “moderate” on the Russian issue – not a “pro-Russian candidate”, but “moderately anti-Russian”. But what is very important, it matters, and understanding the objective benefits in the expected future is of great importance seasonal emotions.
“If Russia chooses to cooperate with China” Le Pen says. But this is not the view of a Russophile, but of a housekeeper.
Previously, Germany acted as such a “housekeeper” at the pan-European level, now being urged on the surface from the USA to Ukraine. There are no more “special relations” between Moscow and Berlin (and are not expected), but if Le Pen wins the elections, “special relations” can be expected between Moscow and Paris.
Moreover, Berlin is suspected of terrorism, accuses Brussels of terrorism, promises to cancel joint projects with the Germans in the field of the armed forces and does not give them a grudge against the French nuclear industry (the “greens”, which now flooded the German M., really attempted on it) .
Another thing is that Russia and Macron in some (but not bad) sense have “special relations”, and Le Pen still considers victory extremely unlikely.
The campaign rolls to a result of 45% to 55%, and in the best case for Le Pen – 48% to 52% when using Macron. Sociologists talk about this, using this electoral geography and the logic of French domestic political processes.
She won half a million more votes in the first round than five years ago, but he is risking his result by more than a million and should be re-elected for a second term without any problems, which his fears, Hollande and Sarkozy, failed to do.
By the way, Chirac was also re-elected in 2002 only because Le Pen’s father came out with him in the second round – unbearable and radical, now at odds with his daughter in politics and in life.
The current second round is in some sense a battle between TV and representation: all the mainstream media are discovering Macron and fighting “fascism” in the person of Le Pen, but the growth of the alleged and alleged transparent hints that something needs to be changed in the sample of the president’s liberal economic policy .
In this regard, a split is expected among the electorate that supported the Trotskyist Melenchon (21.95%, third place and 7.7 million votes): he himself categorically votes “against Madame Le Pen”, but some of his voters will vote against Macron’s reform . However, this part of the leader of the “National Rally” in the presidency is not enough: almost 70% of Mélenchon’s voters are Muslims, hence his victory in Paris and Marseille.
But if, nevertheless, the nature of the miracle comes from what is happening in Trump in 2016 in the White house, the totality of Le Pen’s views on the world order allows Russia to decide that the new leader of the future will affect three main words.
No, not “I love you”, but “let’s be selfish.” Such a marriage of convenience can become truly strong.