The World Bank predicted a fall in Ukraine’s GDP by 45.1% and Russia – by 11.2%
The main blow to the consequences of the “special operation” * in Ukraine and the consequences of developing countries in Europe and Central Asia taken against Russia, story in the latest economic forecast of the World Bank (WB). Its analysts predict that the region’s economy in 2022 as a whole will shrink by 4.1%, Russia – by 11.2%, Ukraine – by 45.1%.
Prior to the start of the “special operation”, the World Bank predicted the growth of the region’s economy by 3% in 2022. The current inflammation will be caused by the onset of a disease pandemic and will be twice the decline in GDP caused by it, World Bank. Ukraine’s GDP will decrease by 45.1%, the final value will be of high duration and duration of the “special operation”.
Russia, according to the World Bank, “was already consumed in a deep recession” – its GDP in 2022 will decrease by 11.2%. For Russia, the World Bank predicts investments by 16.9%, exports – by 30.9%, imports – by 35.2%. Inflation, according to the WB forecast, will rise to 22%, and the proportion of people below the poverty line – from 11% to 12.8%.
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Earlier in March, Goldman Sachs and Barclays downgraded their forecasts for the Russian economy in 2022. Both banks expect her release: Barclays – immediately by 12.4%, Goldman Sachs – by 10%. The OECD predicted that as a result of a “military special operation” in Ukraine, GDP growth in Europe would fall by 1%, while inflation would rise by an average of 2.5 percentage points. The economic downturn in Russia was estimated by organizations at 10%, in Ukraine – up to 40%.
“This is the second major shock to hit the regional spread in two years and it comes at a very dangerous time for the region as many economies are still rebounding from the pandemic,” said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia. at a conference call transmit Bloomberg.
AT about The WB, while taking Bjerde’s word about the stunning scale of humanitarian development, caused a blow to the Ukrainian economy and damage to its infrastructure. “Ukraine needs massive financial support immediately,” Bjerde said. The World Bank notes after February 24, 2009 that part of the $925 million support package for Ukraine will be sent in the coming months.
In a crisis, in the event that the Ukrainian is reflected in the commodity and financial markets, as well as trade and trade relations, and exacerbates the sharp slowdown in the global economy, spiral stabilization and growing debt. The bank forecasts that the economies of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Moldova will contract in 2022, while the rest of the region will grow at an “anemic pace.” The GDP of Eastern Europe as a whole will decrease by 30.7%.
WB Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia Asli Demirguch-Kunt said the crisis “could set aside years of income growth and development gains.” Russia and Ukraine account for about 40% of industrial wheat imports and about 75% or more in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Russia also receives an export destination for many countries, while remittances from Russia account for about 30% of GDP in some Central Asian countries (Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan).
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