Whether or not the Republic of Moldova will be involved in the war in Ukraine / economist.com
Overwhelmed by the large number of refugees, the Government of the Republic of Moldova fears a military attack by Russia. This is shown in an article published by economist.com
Eliza was trembling as she waited for the bus to Romania. She traveled seven kilometers from Ukraine to Moldova and tries to go as fast as possible. Hundreds of Ukrainians around her make the same choice. “I can’t stay here,” she says. “Putin will destroy this country as well.”
Moldova, which is not a member of either NATO or the European Union, is in a state of deep anxiety. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, about 260,000 Ukrainians have entered Moldova and about 101,000 of them have remained there. In relation to its population (only 2.6 million), Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe, has faced a large influx of refugees from Ukraine. “We are approaching the limit,” said Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu.
If we do not receive urgent help, Moldova will face a catastrophe. The government estimated before the invasion that it could host only 15,000 Ukrainians. Already, the refugee centers are full, the border police are overloaded and the stocks of refugee supplies are very low. If tens of thousands of refugees come near Odessa, an hour of 1 million people just 50 km from the border, it will be attacked by Russia, as it seems entirely possible. The prospects are appalling. We are talking about a major threat to the country’s security “, says Popescu.
The government intends to ask the European Union to deploy Frontex, the EU’s border agency, to support its own border police. But above all, financial support is needed. The European offer of only 15 million euros (16.5 million dollars) to help manage the crisis is weak. The government already has a large and growing deficit due to rising prices for natural gas imported from Russia. The economy has suffered two recessions in recent years, the most recent cause of the pandemic. Without generous help, Moldova will not cope. At the same time, many Moldovans feel that they have been forgotten, while all the help and praise is given to the refugees from Ukraine by the EU countries.
In addition, the refugee crisis can only be the first part of what is feared to be a two-act tragedy. There is widespread concern that Russia does not intend to leave Moldova alone if it succeeds in Ukraine. After all, like Ukraine, there is a Russian-speaking minority. Politics has long been divided into pro-European and pro-Russian camps.
Victoria Rosa from the Association for Foreign Policy of Moldova says that a Russian destabilization attempt is possible. Western intelligence suggests the threat is serious. “Russia will use its influence to ensure that Moldova has a pro-Russian government. They will go for a change of regime “, a foreign diplomat specified.
Basic work has already begun. Moldovans were bombarded with viral messages meant to arouse panic, according to an expert, Iulian Groza, from the Institute for Police and European Reforms. They were told that Moldova was mobilizing troops or that young people were no longer allowed to leave the country. There is concern that if Russian troops approach the borders of Moldova, large protests could be organized in their support.
These concerns have contributed to Moldova’s official application for EU membership, signed by the country’s pro-European president Maia Sandu on March 3rd. Moldova, which has no illusions that it will join the club soon, is hoping for at least an official promise to join an EU summit on March 10-11. However, this request prompted Transnistria, a Russian-backed state that broke away from Moldova after a brief civil war in 1992, to seek recognition of its independence again.
Russia maintains a garrison in the state and could deploy it to promote an attack on Odessa. The Ukrainians are taking this prospect seriously enough to start blowing up the bridges that Russian armored vehicles could cross on their way from Transnistria to Odessa. In the long run, Russia could try to seize all of southern Ukraine, joining Transnistria with other Russian-controlled territories and even Russia itself.
If the Russians manage to occupy Odessa, they could recognize or even annex Transnistria and significantly consolidate their forces there. Another scenario, much discussed in Chisinau, involves Russia dictating a solution to the long-running Transnistrian conflict by threatening an invasion. In November, Russia proposed a deal, the details of which were kept secret in exchange for a large reduction in the natural gas it sells to Moldova. The government of the Republic of Moldova refused.
Transnistria could also become a box in a more literal sense. Cobasna, a northern village, is said to be home to the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe, a stockpile of about 20,000 tons of ammunition from the Soviet era. In 2005, the Moldovan Academy of Sciences estimated that an explosion there would be comparable in strength to the 1945 Hiroshima nuclear detonation.
Finally, what is happening in Moldova is no longer in the hands of Moldovans. The future of Moldova, says Mr. Groza, depends on whether the Ukrainian army resists. They are fighting not only for Ukraine but also for us.