Estimated probability of default in Russia
A large number of reserves have been identified in Russia, despite their partial blocking of Western countries, said Gleb Pokatovich, First Vice President of the Center for Statistical Research, writes RIA News.
According to the expert, the probability of default on public debt is now extremely low. “The total amount of public debt at the beginning of the collection year is slightly above 21 trillion rubles (15.8 percent of GDP),” he said. According to him, a number of large reserves have been revealed on a Russian scale, even despite their partial blocking by the West.
Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves are located in France, Japan, Germany, the USA, Great Britain, Austria and Canada. The volume of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) as of February 1, 2022 amounted to 13.6 trillion rubles (10.2 percent of GDP). Pokatović recalled that even if the assets affected by the sanctions are observed from the fund, “a significant amount of funds” still remains in it.
“530.6 billion rubles were placed on deposits with VEB.RF, 138,434 billion rubles were placed on subordinated deposits of VTB and Gazprombank, 226.7 billion yuan in small accounts with the Central Bank, 405.7 million gold in depersonalized form and 266.1 million rubles, ”the expert noted.
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In addition, there are resources in treasury accounts in the form of accumulation, as well as a reserve fund. Pokatovich called the probability of default in Russia.
“Thus, a significant supply of liquidity and recovery from the situation with the financial market, the probability of a default on the debt of the Russian Federation is objectively extraordinary,” the expert assessed.
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation, in connection with which the start of the event in Donbass was announced.