Muscle play. How often does Russia assemble groups comparable to the current ones?
- Pavel Aksenov
- BBC Russian Service
The tension over the crisis in Ukraine, caused by the concentration of Russian forces in the border regions, as well as the exclusion of exercises in neighboring Belarus and the Black Sea, has been ongoing for the first week. In telegram channels and other social networks, there is video filming of the movement of military equipment in the regions.
Estimates of the number of troops gathered in border camps and during exercises vary greatly – official data from Moscow and Minsk are not connected, only estimates by Western and Ukrainian special services and journalists appear in the press and blogs.
According to various estimates, Russia has concentrated between 100,000 and 130,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. In addition, about 30,000 may be concentrated in Belarus for the Allied Resolve-2022 exercises. Officially, the number of detachments is not disclosed, but at the end of January, the chief of the general staff of the armed forces of Belarus, Major General Viktor Gulevich, officially announced that scientists would not exceed the “threshold threshold” – that is, 9 thousand people.
In addition, in Chernoye, Russia planned to increase maneuverability; large landing ships were pulled into the sea. According to Interfax, company tactical exercises are starting in the Southern District with reinforced companies from the battalion tactical groups of the combined arms armies, the Caspian Fleet and the army corps of the Southern Military District, to attract more than 30 Mi-8AMTSh transport and attack helicopters.
On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the unit of the Western and Southern military districts had already begun returning with exercises to their military garrisons, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
The investigation of the agency for the dissemination of the word of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who, along with Vladimir Putin, said that some exercises in Russia would be completed. “Some of these scientists are coming to an end, some will be completed in the near future,” Interfax quoted him as saying.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose department has nothing to do with military planning, also announced the completion of the exercises at the scene of the incident. However, he stated that the maneuvers were coming to an end, and this was planned in advance.
Thus, even the largest figures that appeared in the assessment of the size of group studies in Germany are not a record for the Russian army, which, over the time the aggravation of relations with Ukraine began in 2014, conducted several major scientific studies.
This is not the first crisis in the last seven years. Fears that Russia might launch an invasion of the Land of Ukraine have already arisen.
Last year in 2014 – before the annexation of Crimea, which involved military personnel – Russia conducted a massive surprise readiness test: an unscheduled exercise on the border with Ukraine. Now, many in Europe believe that these exercises were then closed to the upcoming commercial operation on the continent.
Major exercises
Since 2014, international maneuvers have been held in Russia, in which more than 200,000 people officially participated.
From September 11 to 17, 2018, the Vostok-2018 exercises were held in the Eastern District of Russia, which became economical expenses in the entire post-Soviet history.
On the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense, citing a statement by Minister Sergei Shoigu, it is said that about 300 thousand military personnelmore approaching aircraft, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, up to 80 ships and ships, up to 36 thousand tanks, armored personnel carriers and other vehicles.
the total population of the Russian armed forces is about one million people, it can be considered that almost a third of the army took part in the exercises. This figure also included 3.2 servicemen and military personnel of the Mongolian army, the number of which was not officially disclosed.
Announcing the holding of the Vostok-2018 exercises, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu compared them with the Soviet Zapad-81 maneuvers, specifying that the current ones are “in some ways, perhaps even larger.”
In 2020, the Kavkaz-2020 exercises were held in the Southern District, in which, according to records, 80,000 people were involved.
Last year, in the West-2021 exercises, a choice was made, including 200,000 military personnel, more than 80 aircraft and helicopters, up to 760 units of military equipment, including over 290 tanks, more than 240 guns, multiple launch rocket systems. and mortars, as well as up to 15 ships.
How to count
A comment was posted on the NATO Review page on the NATO website in December 2018. Its author, Dave Johnson, an employee of the NATO Defense Policy Control Unit and the calculation of the NATO computing base, in particular, said that the data on the alliance could differ greatly from the declared one.
“Russia, on the one hand, systematically underestimates the presence of troops (forces) in exercises west of the Urals, primarily requires compliance with treaty requirements on expected and non-compliance (avoiding such official observation); and on the other hand, gives accurate or even inflated figures on exercises east of the Urals, due to non-compliance with the requirements for an expected or observable reason, “- in the article.
According to Vienna Document 2011, if the number of detachments in the exercises exceeds 9 thousand people, it is necessary to notify the rest of its participants about them. If it exceeds 13 thousand, then foreign observers should be invited to the exercise.
According to NATO data, set out in an article by Dave Johnson, 12,700 participants were announced in the Zapad-2017 exercises, from 60,000 to 70,000 people were actually involved; in the exercises “Kavkaz-2016” in total taken 12 500but in fact – 120 thousand people.
At the same time, 297 thousand people officially participated in the Vostok-2018 exercises, which took place in the Asian part of Russia – but in order to consider that in fact there were from 75 to 100 thousand.
True, the Russian Ministry of Defense sometimes itself reports discrepancies, explaining them by the ratio of combat and rear units. So, at the exercises “Kavkaz-2020”, the total estimated share of 80 thousand people, in hostilities at the training ground 12,900 troops were involved.
“Trojan horse”
In addition to the above, smaller-scale exercises took place in Russia, which nevertheless caused an aggravation in the areas where they took place.
From September 14 to 20, 2017, the West-2017 joint strategic exercises, already mentioned in this article, were held on the territory of Russia and Belarus. Officially, about 12.7 thousand military men of the two countries took part in them. From the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus – about 7.2 thousand people, from the Russian army – about 5.5 thousand, out of those deployed on the territory of Belarus, only 3 military men are involved, Russian Defense Ministry report.
About 70 aircraft and helicopters, up to 680 units of military equipment, including about 250 tanks, up to 200 units, multiple launch rocket systems and mortars, as well as 10 ships were also involved.
These maneuvers raised fears in Eastern European countries – they considered that the exercises could become a cover for preparations for possible real military operations against the Baltic countries and Ukraine. Western experts then claimed that in fact we are talking about more than 100 thousand military men, a reasonable scale of preparation for maneuvers.
The situation was also exacerbated by the fact that two days before the start of the “West-2017” in the south of Russia (in the Krasnodar Territory, Adygea and Stavropol Territory), assessments of the teachings of the 49th combined arms army, including, on detainees, detainees, about 700 detainees and detainees 200 units of military equipment.
April Crisis
Another crisis is suspected a year ago. In early April, ordinary trains were bought in the southern regions of Russia. On April 8, the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) published an investigation alleging that Russian troops were “concentrating in a field camp at a training ground south of Voronezh, where equipment is being transported from at least two railway stations.”
Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran, speaking at the European Parliament, said that we are talking about 110,000 mobile military. In Washington, they said that with the Russian border, the number of troops has increased dramatically since 2014, when there was the most acute stage of the armed conflict on the frequency of Ukraine.
On April 16, the press service of the Southern District of Russia reported about the educational institutions of the 58th Army discovered in Crimea, and on April 19 about those detained at the annexed aviation educational institutions of the peninsula, which involved 50 aircraft of the air force, air defense and the Black Sea Fleet.
In addition, a large Russian naval group has gathered on the Black Sea, including large landing ships – four of them came from the Baltic and Northern fleets. In addition to them, landing craft of the Caspian flotilla were transferred to the Black Sea.
The United States and European countries are expressing concern about the movement of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. The leaders of Germany and France, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, are calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops.
This escalation ended on April 22, when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the troops to return to their permanent deployment point.
The exercises in the spring of 2021 were held to exacerbate the situation in the production of Ukraine and the hidden concentration of detachments near the Ukrainian border. They are similar to the current escalation, while Russian forces have also been loaded in some regions.
Accumulations of equipment were found on satellite images of territories near the village of Klimovo in the Bryansk region, which is located near the Belarusian and Ukrainian borders, in several places in the Voronezh region, in the annexed Crimea.
As for 2017, Zapad-2017 was the first major movement of its kind in the Western District since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea – the opposite Zapad exercise took place in 2013.