Tired country: with what sentiments Russia enters 2022
Russian society is entering the new year 2022 not in the best condition. Summary assessments of the situation in the country, which shows the social sentiment index, today is worse than in 2013, before their sharp improvement after the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014. Expectations are at the level of a difficult 2018, when the retirement age was raised.
The assessments of one’s own family are more stable, however, they have also been slowly declining over the past few months. Consumer optimism and assessments of the economic situation have been systematically falling since the end of spring. There is not enough good news, and it is not clear what could fundamentally improve the situation.
Doping ratings
So far, the work of the president, prime minister, and governors is highly appreciated, but these indicators went down in the second half of 2021. At the beginning of the rating of the first persons, especially the president, the pre-election payments to pensioners, to security officials, their families with children slightly spurred: the respondents who received the money became relate to the president and the authorities in much better. However, the positive effect turned out to be short-lived, also because various increases do not keep pace with inflation. Focus group participants reason like this: “When they start to raise pensions, all kinds of minimum wages, people right away: how much will the price of bread rise? And what about gasoline? Therefore, by November, the ratings went down again. This trend is likely to continue in 2022.
Advertising on Forbes
A similar situation is with the attitude to the party in power. The rating of “United Russia” is smooth. went down the last five years. And only before the Duma elections in September 2021, he grew slightly under monetary payments. However, immediately after the fall, the elections resumed. The electorate of the party in power continues to slowly disintegrate and keep an eye on other parties. The main beneficiary of this process become “New people”, but the voter of “United Russia” also goes to the Liberal Democratic Party, “Fair Russia” and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (although fatigue has accumulated in relation to the old parties), is spreading over small parties. Irritation by officials, disbelief in the ability of the authorities to change the situation leads to the fact that citizens are beginning to look for an alternative.
Legal opposition
By and large, there are two alternatives left in the legal field – the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and New People. The communists attract the sympathy of the most implacable critics of the government. Their electorate is rather motley: it became noticeably “younger” in the last elections, about half of their supporters attend themselves as democratic parties, leftists are ready to call themselves less than half of the supporters of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. “New people”, on the contrary, attract those who are disappointed in the government, but not ready for a tough confrontation with it; they want renewal and are ready to give a new chance – literally, to new people. Overcoming the 5% barrier and getting into the State Duma automatically focused the hopes of those who had previously voted for small parties on this party. The number of supporters of the “New People” after the elections increased almost doubled (from 3% to 5% of all respondents and from 5% to 8% of those who are ready to vote, which puts her in fourth place after United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party).
Note that the active parties have new popular politicians. The “New People” – Sardan Avksentyev, the Communist Party – the deputy of the Saratov Regional Duma Nikolai Bondarenko, video blogger Nikolai Platoshkin and the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in the presidential elections of 2018 Pavel Grudinin, sympathies for which remain. However, the future prospects of dependence on the Kremlin. Bondarenko and Platoshkina in 2021, there were problems with the law.
It is also important how successful or unsuccessful the efforts of the authorities to solve problems are the majority of those concerned about the population.
Reasons for protest
Shows that people come first worries rising prices for basic necessities and the associated decline in living standards. For the past year and a half, anxiety has grown despite the government’s best efforts. Remains high fear of unemployment, stratification into rich and poor, insurance of further economic conditions. As before, in the top three most acute problems – dissatisfaction with corruption, bribery, unwillingness to power of ordinary citizens.
A sign of the new era is the high susceptibility to the coronavirus epidemic and the resulting difficulties in obtaining routine medical care. Solutions to these problems are expected from the authorities in the first place; tangible progress in these areas could support the falling ratings. Efforts are being made, but people do not yet feel the result.
In these conditions keeps rather high protest potential. It is lower than at the beginning of 2021; nevertheless, every fifth respondent declares his readiness to participate in protests with economic demands, slightly less with political ones. And this despite the harsh dispersal of protest rallies at the beginning of the year, which did not go unnoticed.
It’s another matter that today in Russia there is no political force that can become the organizer of an all-Russian protest action – the supporters of Alexei Navalny have been declared extremists, and most of them have left politics or left the country. The CPRF is unlikely to risk incurring the ire of the Kremlin with serious rallies. This means that in these conditions, local spontaneous protests on a specific problem are most likely – for example, against distance education in Moscow or Yekaterinburg, against QR codes on transport in Yekaterinburg, Kazan and other cities. About the readiness to go out to such protests declares every fourth, consider them possible – 43% (probably, such figures forced the Duma and the government to postpone the introduction of QR codes). Until the authorities manage to remove the accumulated social tension in society, such protests will continue.
Unique Crimea
In the absence in the past of experiences with the West, they strengthened against the background of conflicts with the West, Kosovo and Iraq, the “coercion to peace” of Georgia, the annexation of Crimea. However, today Russian society looks tired of confrontation with the outside world. Yes, most are ready agree The United States and NATO want to drag our country into what is happening on the Belarusian-Polish border, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and is preparing new sanctions against Russia. However, there is no enthusiasm for this.
In other words, although the Russian government is already responsible for exacerbating the situation, it is hardly worth waiting for the consolidation of public opinion around the government, comparable in strength to the mobilization of 2014 or 2008. For Russian public opinion, the settlement of differences, the relaxation of tensions in relations with the United States and Europe today seems to be a more desirable development of events.
Not the time of the young
It is highly likely that in 2022 the pressure on the active Russian society will continue, which manifested itself in full force in the outgoing year: the actual elimination of the most irreconcilable opposition from the legal field, the assignment of foreign agent labels to many independent media outlets and journalists, and the Memorial show trial. foreign agent) – the list goes on.
Urban youth turned out to be one of the targets of the Russian authorities. Young people read news on the Internet and know that they can get a fine or a term for reposting a message on social networks. A symbol of pressure on young people was the claims of the security officials against stand-up comedians, Russian video bloggers, and Russian rap performers. This trend of suppression by the aging elite of the younger generation is likely to continue into the coming year.
Polls show that all these processes are taking place against the background of widespread indifference the mass of the population, therefore it is not clear what can stop the political reaction today. At the same time, the pressure on the active part of society to sympathize with the authorities is also not sir. Moreover, in five years, the number of people who qualify what is happening as a fight against dissent, doubledand this opinion is starting to prevail.
It is fair to say that such a policy cannot stop the placement of ratings. This means that the alienation between the government and society will only grow. A way out of this situation will have to be sought in the coming year.
The opinion of the editorial board may not coincide with the point of view of the author
Advertising on Forbes