Growth data favorable, equilibrium indicators deteriorate – Debrecen news, Debrecen news | News of Debrecen and Hajdú-Bihar counties
Favorable growth data worsened equilibrium indicators
Budapest – According to analysts, this year 6, final, next year 4, 7 full lives in the Hungarian economy.
The Hungarian economy is expected to grow by 6.7 this year, which is very much due to the crisis caused by the epidemic, and then the growth may slow to 4.7 percent in 2022 – GKI Gazdaságkutató Zrt. Informed. latest forecast of the MTI.
It was pointed out that, in addition to the favorable growth figures, the equilibrium indicators were worse than expected:
Inflation and the cash flow deficit of the state budget jumped, the forint weakened and the external balance turned into a significant liability.
The discrepancy can be attributed to the economic policy stimulating demand, the escalating conflict with the EU, as well as the global economic processes, such as the rise in energy prices and the related deterioration of the terms of trade, global supply disruptions, they explained.
Improving the equilibrium situation requires curbing demand, including less painful investments for the population, they emphasized. The government has already taken some steps to do so (progress on some investments) and the tightness of monetary policy is starting to become more meaningful, he added.
According to GKI, substantial corrective steps will be taken, which may lead to slower growth and a more favorable equilibrium situation than at present.
They also pointed out that Hungarian growth is expected to be at the forefront of the region in 2021, but will be only weak in 2022 due to the need to address balance problems.
The economic researcher forecasts that this year the average real earnings will be 3.5 healthy, the real pension 4 healthy; population consumption is 3.5 full women. Next year, gross earnings will rise below the minimum wage by an average of about 14 in total, which will require a 8-9 per cent rise in real earnings, and the real value of pensions will be 6 healthy women; consumption 4.5 to expand.
According to the GKI, the general government deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to be around the planned 7.5 per cent, and the 5.9 per cent of GDP deficit projected for 2022 may be met.
Inflation will be around 5 percent in 2021-22, and the key interest rate could still reach 4.5 percent by the fall of 2022, GKI said in a statement.