The Guardian: Russia is approaching a war with Ukraine
Last week, a railroad car with a flatcar running through southwest Russia boded ill of averting a larger war with Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by The Guardian.
On board was the Buk-M1, a medium-range anti-aircraft missile system made famous in 2014 after the missile that shot down a Malaysian airliner, killing all 298 people.
For Russia to enter the war with Ukraine, it will still have to take a number of steps. …
Even when Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin were negotiating.
“These data allow us to conclude that, despite Russian troops in areas bordering Ukrainian-controlled territory, negotiations between Biden and Putin continue,” wrote the Conflict Intelligence Group (CIT), an online research group. Use social media, train schedules, and more to uncover details of the military build-up at the border.
Putin may still decide not to launch the invasion, as he leaves the troops at the front in the leverage for negotiations. Russian and Western analysts predict this military build-up – the second this year – heralds a series of future crises in Ukraine as Putin attempts to reverse his trajectory toward the West.
“Even if Putin gets something from the West, serious negotiations or discussions about a guarantee, will this be enough for Putin?” Said Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of the analytical firm R. Politik. “We are witnessing the emergence of a new geopolitical adventurism from Russia.”
Despite talks between Putin and Biden, the crisis is deepening.
On Thursday, Russia’s FSB reported that it had intercepted a Ukrainian vessel in the Sea of Azov near Crimea for not following orders. A day later, Russia closed almost 70% of the Sea of Azov. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia and the United States could seek a repeat of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. And Putin said that the situation in eastern Ukraine “looked like genocide” at a recent meeting, that he might be looking for an excuse to bring his troops into the country.
Given the military threat, the Russian Foreign Ministry released on Friday a list of demands on how to end the crisis. The main one was that NATO “officially disavowed the decision of the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008 that” Ukraine and Georgia are NATO members. “
Putin has spent the past two decades trying to fight NATO expansion.
The US tried to convince Russia that Ukraine would not join the alliance anytime soon, but on Friday Moscow demanded a more formal statement. NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said that this is not a reason to start. “NATO’s relations with Ukraine will be decided by NATO allies and Ukraine – no one else,” he said during a press conference with the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
In Ukraine, support for NATO membership has grown significantly in recent years, and for countries on the eastern flank of NATO, “allowing Russia to dictate Alliance policy towards Ukraine as a first step down the slippery slope of the Russian sphere of influence.”
“History shows that vows of neutrality by Ukraine or any other country in the region do not help reduce Putin’s appetite; rather, they feed it, ”Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote in an article published Friday by Foreign Affairs. “The best way to respond to such ultimatums is to ignore them completely.”
There are doubts as to whether Russia really wants to conclude any deal at all. Analysts note that despite the fact that Moscow has been building up its forces for several months, Russian diplomas until last week did not prepare official documents and did not even formulate the country’s requirements. And the idea is to gather almost 100,000 troops in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian border.
At the end of the article, they come to the following conclusion: “The clock is ticking. Putin may back down, but it would be embarrassing to do so without a solid victory. And Russia’s demands look impossible for the West: “Putin thinks that if Biden wants, he can move mountains, he can convince allies and convince Kiev.” [пойти на уступки]”, – said Stanovaya. “This problem can lead to the fact that Putin will demand the impossible and put on such a stake that everything will end in war.”