If Kolyada misses Semenenko to the first place in the Russian Grand Prix, both will reach the final. Do you think everything will work out? – Cutting – Blogs
Before finals of the Grand Prix in figure skating just one stage – the competition in Sochi next weekend will finally determine the six participants in each event.
We are figuring out how Yevgeny Semenenko can get to the final together with Mikhail Kolyada, who can prevent Alena Kostornaya and how many Russian couples will go to Osaka?
Let us briefly recall the selection format: participants have the right to perform at a maximum of two stages and collect points there for occupied places (winner – 15, 2nd place – 13, 3rd place – 11 …), in pairs and dances, points are given only for first 6 places, for singles – for the first 8.
If the points are equal, additional indicators are included (for example, a comparison of points for programs) – it will probably come to an in-depth calculation in a week.
Men: if Kolyada misses Semenenko to the first place in Sochi, there will be two of ours in the final
Top-6 after five stages (those who have already reached the final are highlighted):
Yuma Kagiyama (Japan) – 30 points
Shoma Uno (Japan) – 28
Vincent Zhou (USA) – 28
Nathan Chen (USA) – 26
Jason Brown (USA) – 24
Shun Sato (Japan) – 22
Who can qualify through Sochi:
Mikhail Kolyada (Russia) – 13
Evgeny Semenenko (Russia) – 11
Matteo Rizzo (Italy) – 7
Before the French Grand Prix, it seems that of the Russian guys only Mikhail Kolyada is seriously counting on the final. But the solid results at the stage in Grenoble changed the situation, and now Evgeny Semenenko has chances. Hypothetically, even the Italian Matteo Rizzo is fighting for the final. Four skaters secured their entry to Osaka. Thus, applicants for two places, three will perform in Sochi.
Kolyada: passes exactly if it takes a place in the top 2 (that is, gains 15 or 13 points). If Semenenko wins, then Jason has two stages – 523.75). If Semenenko is second, and Kolyada is third, then he needs to overtake either Evgeny or Brown in total.
Semenenko: passes exactly if he wins in Sochi. If Kolyada wins, then Evgeny needs second place and the amount is higher than that of Brown (remember Jason’s total, Zhenya still has 256.01). Third place will allow reaching the final under two conditions: the amount is higher than that of Sato, and Kolyada will take fifth place or lower.
Rizzo: passes exactly if he wins lower in Sochi, while Semenenko will drop to third place or lower, and Kolyada – to fourth or lower. In general, close to fantasy.
They have the opportunity to discuss the alignments and go to the final together – such a legal agreement. Eugene’s gold, Mikhail’s silver – and then they knock Brown out for the top 6. Do you think they will go for this?
Women: Only Hendrix’s breakthrough will prevent Kostornaya
Top 6 after five rounds:
Anna Shcherbakova (Russia) – 30
Kaori Sakamoto (Japan) – 24
Alena Kostornaya (Russia) – 24 (Alena is lower than Kaori, since she has a stage victory)
Yoo Yeon (South Korea) – 22
Mai Mihara (Japan) – 18
Wakaba Higuchi (Japan) – 16
Who can qualify for Sochi:
Kamila Valieva (Russia) – 15
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (Russia) – 13
Maya Khromykh (Russia) – 13
Luna Hendrix (Belgium) – 11
For women, the situation was confused by withdrawals – due to injuries, Sasha Trusova and Daria Usacheva, who took gold and silver at the US Grand Prix, were left without a second stage. Therefore, even Mariah Bell and Rino Matsuike with sixth places in the asset had hypothetical chances for the final. Moreover, Ekaterina Ryabova and Madeleine Skiza also get to Osaka. But this requires completely unrealistic dealings with these skaters and the simultaneous failure / removal of all the leaders.
In fact, the four, which have already been on the podium this season and will perform in Sochi, have real chances. Moreover, in certain situations, they can come out as four, leaving Kostornaya without a final. But this is only at the level of imagination: the victory of Hendrix + 4th place by Valieva + the one from the Tuktamyshev-Khromykh pair who takes 3rd place will overtake Alena in points for the programs.
Valieva: In order for all the main rivals to get ahead of her, it was possible either not to reveal below the fifth place, or to get ahead of them.
Tuktamysheva and Khromykh: will definitely pass if there is a Russian podium at the sixth stage. If Valieva and Hendrix are in the top 2 (no matter in which order), then third place is required to enter. The one who takes the fourth position is eliminated.
Hendrix: passes exactly if it gets into the top 2 together with Valieva. If Tuktamysheva or Khromykh wins, and the second of them will be in third place, with Kamila slipping to 4th or 5th place, then you will have to count the points between those who scored 24 points. If Hendrix wins and top-3 with Tuktamysheva and Khromykh, points are again counted between Maya, Lisa and Alena.
Couples: we are waiting in the final 4 duets from Russia (2 are already there)
Top 6 after five rounds:
Wenjin Sui – Cong Han (China) – 30
Evgenia Tarasova – Vladimir Morozov (Russia) – 28
Alexandra Boykova – Dmitry Kozlovsky (Russia) – 26
Riku Miura – Ryuichi Kihara (Japan) – 24
Yulia Artemieva – Mikhail Nazarychev (Russia) – 24
Alexa Knierim – Brandon Fraser (USA) – 20
Who can qualify for Sochi:
Anastasia Mishina – Alexander Gallyamov (Russia) – 15
Daria Pavlyuchenko – Denis Khodykin (Russia) – 13
Nicole Della Monica – Matteo Guarise (Italy) – 9
Three duets will perform in pairs from real applicants in Sochi. Moreover, the alignment will definitely not work in which five Russian pairs will be selected for the final. If in France Yulia Artemyeva and Mikhail Nazarychev had scored 25.5 points more, then this could have happened. In the meantime, we are analyzing the conditions for those who participate in the Russian Grand Prix.
Mishina – Gallyamov: pass if they get into the top 3. If Della Monica and Guarise win, and Pavlyuchenko and Khodykin finish second, then 4th place is enough for the world champions. If Daria and Denis win, and Mishina and Gallyamov win 4th, then it doesn’t matter what the Italians will be.
Pavlyuchenko – Khodykin: definitely pass if they get into the top 2. If Della Monica and Guarise win, Mishina and Galliamov will be second, then Daria and Denis need third place and the amount is higher than that of the Japanese duo Miura-Kihara.
Della Monica – Guarise: will definitely pass if they win. The second place will suit only if Mishina and Gallyamov fall below the fourth, and Pavlyuchenko and Khodykin will arrange in the top-3.
Dances: Stepanova and Bukin, most likely past the final
Top 6 after five rounds:
1. Gabriela Papadakis – Guillaume Sizeron (France) – 30
2. Madison Hubbell – Zachary Donoghue (USA) – 28
3. Piper Gilles – Paul Poirier (Canada) – 28
4. Madison Chok – Evan Bates (USA) – 26
5. Alexandra Stepanova – Ivan Bukin (Russia) – 22
6. Olivia Smart – Adria Diaz (Spain) – 20
Who can qualify for Sochi:
Victoria Sinitsina – Nikita Katsalapov (Russia) – 15
Charlene Guignard – Marco Fabri (Italy) – 13
Laurence Fournier Baudry – Nikolai Sorensen (Canada) – 11
Sarah Hurtado – Kirill Khalyavin (Spain) – 9
The dancers also have many applicants – all the top participants of the stage in Sochi have chances for the final. With this position of the Americans, Chock and Bates with 26 points looks quite strong – there are too many conditions for three couples in Sochi to score 26 points and outstrip Madison and Evan in places and in the amount of programs.
Sinitsina – Katsalapov: world champions will arrange a place in the top 3. If the Spaniards win, the Canadians finish the second, the Italians finish third, then all the duets will have 24 points and Vika and Nikita will still pass as stage winners. Even with the fifth place, Sinitsina and Katsalapov have more chances to reach the final than Stepanova and Bukin with equal points.
Guignard – Fabri: just pass if they win or second after the Russians. If Fournier Baudry and Sorensen win, and Sinitsina and Katsalapov win in the third ways, then the Italians need second place and the amount is higher than Chock and Bates.
Fournier Baudry – Sorensen: just pass with a victory. If Sinitsina and Katsalapov win, and Guignard and Fabri are third, then the Canadians need the second place and the amount is higher than that of the Italians.
Hurtado – Khalyavin: the Spaniards need a victory, while if Sinitsina and Katsalapov enter the top 4, then Guignard and Fabri should not be in second place. If Hurtado and Khalyavin take second place, then two pairs of favorites did not make it to the top-3.
The Grand Prix Final will take place from December 9 to 12 in Osaka, Japan. Sochi will host the decisive stage next week. We will find out very soon who will perform at the main start of the first half of the season.
Photo: REUTERS / Ciro De Luca, Denis Balibaus; RIA News/ Alexander Wilf; globallookpress.com/ Raniero Corbelletti / AFLO, Kenjiro Matsuo / AFLO