The Secretary of the Democratic Party Enrico Letta likes to win easy. There is no doubt about this. The former premier who became famous for the phrase “Enrico, stay calm” pronounced by Matteo Renzi is about to win the supplementary school in the Siena Chamber of the Chamber, on 3 and 4 October, in the single-member college Toscana 12, which includes the province of Siena ( with the exception of Val D’Elsa) and five municipalities of Aretino, to compete for the seat vacated by Pier Carlo Padoan, who resigned last year following his entry into the Unicredit board of directors.

In the Democratic Party, but also in the Center-right, rigorously with the microphone off, they are certain that Letta’s success is obvious. On the other hand, the secretary who returned from Paris to replace Nicola Zingaretti toured the college house for a month, mobilizing the center-left electorate. Not only that, while hiding the symbol of the Democratic Party, he managed to put together the 1-Mdp article and above all both the 5 Star Movement and Italia Viva (a real miracle).

Speaking with the parliamentarians Dem and the Center-right, the victory of the secretary is given for sure, but be careful because to talk about real political success, Letta will have to exceed at least 60%, if it remains below this threshold it would still be a disappointment and a political flop . Because? The challenger of the Center-right, Tommaso Marrocchesi Marzi, is essentially unknown compared to a national leader of the caliber of the Democratic Party secretary and, apart from Matteo Salvini only once, the big players of the Center have essentially deserted the electoral campaign in the Sienese college.

It goes without saying that if Letta stayed a month touring all the municipalities and on the other side there was practically no propaganda, if not at the local level, the Center-Left mobilized its electorate but the Center-right did not, in an election like the supplementary where on average only 30% of voters go to the polls. There are also five other candidates in the running – Communist Party Secretary Marco Rizzo, Angelina Rappuoli (Italian National Movement), Elena Golini (Potere al Popolo), Tommaso Agostini (3V) and Mauro Aurigi (Italexit For Italy with Comparison) – but it is clear that, despite the Monte dei Paschi dossier shaking the sleep of the Dem leaders, the election of Letta appears to be taken for granted.

But for all these reasons, both in the Democratic Party and in the Center-Right, they are convinced that under 60% for Letta it would in fact be a flop.