Vladimir Putin went into self-isolation, apparently so as not to be present at the triumph of his party in the elections to the State Duma. But he is clearly being modest: the victory of United Russia is his victory.
The United Russia deputies have 324 mandates and a constitutional majority. It was even enough to let “New People” into the Duma – let there be deputies who say that they are new and therefore still for all the good and against all the bad. Nothing, a couple of votes – and they will not be distinguished. It’s like with white sneakers: put it on once – that’s it, you need to take new ones. It doesn’t matter, in 2026 – it has already been decided – the All New People party will go to the elections under the slogans “Long live Putin” and “Well, how many of the same are possible”, unless, of course, by that time the slogan will not be recognized as extremist … Not the first, which is about Putin, but the second, which is not about Putin at all.
51% is much more than 47% in the last elections. People take a responsible approach to the formation of parliament. In general, elections are a great holiday. Remember, we said: the Kremlin needs the main turnout above 50% – to get more than last time in 2016. The party did not get enough, but the turnout is even more important, because no matter how you vote, you still vote for the current government. This is nothing new.
In fact, the 50% turnout in the Duma elections, which the authorities are proud of today, is less than in the 2000s, and even more so in the 1990s. And it is also understandable why: why go and vote if this does not solve and does not change anything? Therefore, the fight for the turnout, and for the correct turnout, is half the battle for the Kremlin today. And the goal is known.
The 324 mandates received by “United” Russia are 72% of the State Duma, an overwhelming majority comparable to Putin’s rating in his best years and his own result in the presidential elections. And this is almost the same as five years ago, despite the fact that the rating of “United Russia” over these five years has fallen by more than one and a half times. In general, this connection drowns, and does not help in the elections. vote. On Friday morning he will wake up – oh, dear mothers! The elections have begun! Rather, we run to support our beloved party, but they will dismantle it by the evening, we will not be left. As if this is not United Russia, but the start of sales of new iPhones.
In fact, we already saw such very similar elections a year ago – during the voting on amendments to the Constitution. This is a vote where the customer determines the result. If Putin believes that the amendments will be supported by the absolute majority of Russian citizens – and this is what happens. And then it turns out that this is the most rigged vote in Russian history.
Almost half of the votes for the amendments are falsification, an anomaly is the conclusion of the expert on electoral statistics, Sergei Shpilkin. Approximately 65 million for 35 million votes in favor of the amendments, and not 78 million for 22 million, as in the aggregate of the Central Election Commission. This is a completely different story: this is not all for Putin, but a lot against.
The deputies from United Russia, of course, are not Putin’s amendments, they do not need the number of votes, but their victory is comparable to the achievements of the amendments a year ago.
Shpilkin concludes that United Russia gained 14 million votes in this vote, and this is exactly half of the 28 million votes that Putin’s party received officially. 32-33% of support for United Russia with a turnout of 38% – this is, according to him, a relatively real result with a relatively real turnout.
How does Shpilkin look at the deviation of the Gaussian curve, which is somehow true for all large data sets? If you flip a coin 100 times and write down the result (how many heads, how many tails), and then another thousand of such series by flipping coins a hundred times, and then plot the results on a graph where on the horizontal line you will have the ratio of heads and tails from 1 to 99, and vertically – how many times these ratios fell out, then you get an even bell with a top at about 50/50 – maybe 49 by 51, maybe 48 by 52, but about there. And if your peak is rectangular at the point of 80 tails for 20 heads, it means that the coin was not thrown, but simply placed on the table, tails up.
It’s the same with the turnout and voting. If they are honest, organic, then the turnout and votes “for” schedule will look like a bell – the winner will have a higher bell, the loser will have lower, because it cannot be so in real life, the more willingly they vote for United Russia. There should be a fairly even distribution. Here are the results for party lists in the Arkhangelsk region:
There is a suspicious green scion at 53% turnout and absolutely obvious stuffing at 100% turnout, but, in general, the vote count was relatively fair.
Official election results in the Arkhangelsk region: turnout – 41%, United Russia – 32%. This practically coincides with the same average real figures that Shpilkin called.
Or another example: the Babushkinsky single-mandate district of Moscow. There were Timofey Bazhenov from United Russia and Valery Rashkin from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.
A very even bump means that the polling stations were counting honestly, but everything is spoiled by this “Ostankino tower” on the right – electronic voting.
What does Shpilkin say? Here is our green comet “United Russia” – the same graph, only a top view: the results of all parties in all PECs are plotted on the turnout / result map.
The official result of 49.8% for United Russia with a turnout of 51% is almost in milk. Towards the end of the tail, it begins to darken again – these are the most “electoral sultanates”, where the turnout is over 80%, and for United Russia – over 70%.
Here’s the same sideways picture: the overall curve of the Duma elections across the country.
“United Russia” starts like a flat bell – with its left wall, – with such a tousled tail it goes sideways and stands up as a battle pipe, like a cat on a hunt, while the tails of competitors limply fall down and drag along the ground. What does Shpilkin do next? He draws the tail of “United Russia” in use with competitors – they were not credited with anything.
As a result, the shaded space between the two tails, plausible and official, is the volume of manipulation and falsification – 13 million 800 thousand anomalous votes.
That is why the Central Election Commission has coded data on PECs so that the protocols cannot be copied. This is temporarily said by Ella Pamfilova, because “unprecedented attacks” are being carried out on the Central Election Commission, according to her, she later reported to Putin about these attacks. Yes, the attacks are unprecedented: the CIA and MI6 were knocked off their feet, siphoning data on Kabardino-Balkaria, where United Russia gained 80% with a turnout of 85%. They made him grow a beard, they would tell everyone that it was Nicholas II, and then they bought him from Yakutia and the Magadan region. “My grandfather sold Alaska, and I am selling Siberia,” Medvedev would say in a bass voice. As Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said this week, “today the British want to build their empire under the new guise of ‘Global Britain’ using old methods.” It won’t work, madam Englishwoman.
But back to the elections. How does a comet have a lush tail and why does old Gauss turn over in a coffin? A typical example: two polling stations in Kazan – 166 and 167, adjacent, are located at the same address, there is even one entrance, and the same people and neighbors live there. Here are the results: in the 166th PEC the turnout is 13% higher, United Russia got 71.7%, the Communists – 11.8%, at the 167th PEC United Russia got 32.9%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – 27.3%. That is, it is either throwing and drawing protocols, or just drawing protocols.
All-Union competition “Drawing elections, choosing the future.” Why is there such a difference in results? Because there were independent observers at PEC 167, but not at PEC 166.
This graph shows all polling stations in Kazan. This is an even cloud of blue bubbles: from 70% to 80% for United Russia – obviously falsified election results.
This Thursday the Kazan court fined independent observers, writes Kommersant newspaper:
They were accused of interfering with voters and other PEC members, “provoking” them, rewriting personal data to voters. Opposition representatives insist that they did their job and tried to ensure control over the voting and counting of votes, claims against them are called far-fetched. At one of the polling stations, where three participants in the elections were subjected to sanctions at once, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was defeated.
Independent observation is the main topic of these elections: it is no coincidence that the CEC ordered to restrict broadcasts from election commissions. Back in May, in the same Tatarstan, they began to train correct observers: they are the ones who surround the commissions during the counting of votes. The main thing is that it is so everywhere. For example, in the village of Dmitrievka, 50 km from Tambov, the turnout is from 33% to 42%, for United Russia – from 32% to 35%. In neighboring villages: turnout from 65% to 95%, United Russia – mostly over 80%. They are protesting against the construction of a landfill, in neighboring villages not.
I understand: whoever does not have such a path, a difficult path, not an easy one, I agree, no one likes it. Unprecedented attacks on our electoral system began under Ivan the Terrible, the West wants to bring Russia to its knees, take away sovereignty, impose its values, punish its own point of view – I understand all this. But explain to me why in order for Russia to grow stronger, mature, go its own way, honor its traditions, be proud of its history, be strong and independent, it is necessary to falsify the election results and rewrite the protocols?
State Duma elections in 2021
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