Demographic development of hundreds of thousands of cities – Prague, Brno, Ostrava, Pilsen, Liberec and Olomouc
The demographic development of cities in the Czech Republic with more than 100,000 inhabitants has changed over the last 10 years. Let’s see how only some important indicators appear, not only within one city, but also in comparison with each other.
In the last 11 years, ie between 2010-2020, only six Czech cities regularly exceed the limit of one hundred thousand inhabitants, in the established order of 1. Prague, 2. Brno, 3. Ostrava, 4. Plzeň, 5. Liberec and 6. Olomouc. But the differences between them are considerable. As of 31 December 2020, once the most populous Prague had a total population of 1,335,084, the second Brno had more than 2/3 fewer inhabitants. Ostrava then had 4/5 fewer inhabitants compared to Prague, etc. In the graphic representation, the curve would have a decreasing tendency, and in general it can be said that the size of cities in the Czech Republic according to the number of inhabitants corresponds to Zipf’s rule[1] size order of cities. Between 2010 and 2020, the population decreased in Ostrava only by 6%. In the other five cities, the population has increased in the last ten years, most in Prague (+ 6%) and Pilsen (+ 4%).
Average age of the population in six hundred thousand cities in 2020 ranged between 42.0 years in Prague and 43.2 years in Pilsen. In the last 11 years, the inhabitants of these six cities have aged 1.2 years in age. Most in Ostrava (+2.2 years), Liberec and Olomouc (+1.4 years), None in Prague (+0.4 years). Significant changes were also recorded in the age index, ie how many inhabitants aged 65 and over per 100 children under 15 years of age. In 2020, it was the lowest in Prague (118.9) and the highest in Pilsen (138.6). Since 2010, it has increased in Ostrava (+ 23.6 pp), Liberec (+ 16.1 pp), Olomouc (+ 5.3 pp) and Pilsen (only very slightly by +0.2 pp). On the contrary, it decreased in Brno (-2.7 pp) and Prague (-8.7 pp).
Numbers of marriages increased in all cities between 2010 and 2019, both in absolute terms and, with the exception of Pilsen, and per 1,000 inhabitants. In 2019, the gross marriage rate, ie the number of marriages per 1,000 middle-class inhabitants, was over five per mille in Olomouc (5.7 ‰), Brno (5.4 ‰), Ostrava (5.3 ‰), Prague (5, 2 ‰) and Liberec (5.1 ‰). Only in Pilsen was its value 4.7 ‰. Pilsen was also the same city where between 2010 and 2019 there was a decrease in gross marriage rates by 0.1 per mille point. The year 2020 brought a change in this respect. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of marriages decreased in absolute and relative terms. In Prague, even very necessary (by -3.2 per mille point). The marriage rate in Pilsen decreased the least (by -0.6 per mille point). One of the reasons for this reduction was the restriction of weddings as a result of measures taken in response to the Covid-19 epidemic.
We need to increase the number of marriages slightly between 2010 and 2009, and it fell in 2020, number of divorces on the contrary, it decreased in the same period. The gross divorce rate also decreased, as a result of 0.9 per mille point. In 2019 it was the highest in Liberec (3 ‰). In Brno, Ostrava, Pilsen and Olomouc it was at the same level (2.2 ‰), and the last one was in Prague (2.1 ‰). Divorces also decreased in 2020, both in absolute terms. However, the decline was less careful than for marriages and also corresponds to year-on-year fluctuations in other years of the period 2010-2019. Anti-epidemic measures do not have such an effect on the divorce situation as in the case of wedding ceremonies.
In terms of birth rate It can be said in general that in hundreds of thousands of cities it suffers from its stagnation, resp. moderate risk. Compared to 2010 and 2019, the number of live births increased in 2019 only in Prague (+141 children), Brno (+131) and Pilsen (+33). In other cities there was a risk – in Ostrava by 231 live births, in Liberec by 98 and in Olomouc by 40. In terms of 1,000 middle-class inhabitants, the largest decrease was in Liberec (-1.3 per mille point), then in Prague ( -0.5 prom. B.), Olomouc (-0.4 prom. B.), Ostrava (-0.2 prom. B.) and Pilsen (-0.1 prom. B.). Only in Brno did the gross birth rate change between 2010 and 2019.
You can set the year 2020 in the set trend. This year, too, the number of births per 1,000 inhabitants decreased. The largest decrease in the gross birth rate between 2019 and 2020 took place in Liberec (by -0.6 percentage points) and Pilsen (-0.5 percentage points), the lowest in Olomouc (-0.1 percentage points) and in Prague. (-0.3 prom. B.). The downward trend in the gross birth rate began in the monitored cities as early as 2018.
Over the last 10 years, the proportion of live births out of wedlock has increased. The smallest share of children born out of wedlock was in Prague in 2019 (40.3%). It was no different in 2010, when they were born, but 5 percentage points less. The second place in 2019 is occupied by Brno (40.5%), which has improved by one place since 2010. On the other hand, Ostrava had the largest share of children born out of wedlock both in 2010 and in 2019 (56.5%), where the highest special (+7.8 pp) occurred over the years.
Mortality rate and its development varies from city to city. In Prague, in 2019, the gross mortality rate was reduced (9.3 ‰) from six cities and, moreover, it has decreased over the last 10 years (-0.5 prom. B.). In Liberec, the gross mortality rate was the second lowest in 2019 (9.9 ‰), but unlike in Prague, its value has been supported since 2010 (+1.2 pp). In the remaining cities in 2019, the gross mortality rate was already higher than 10 ‰, in Olomouc 10.1 ‰, in Brno 10.6 ‰, in Pilsen 10.7% and in Ostrava even 12.0 ‰. But it was only in Olomouc that it arrived between 2010 and 2019 (by -0.2 tons. Points).
Based on data from 2020, it can be said that mortality per 1,000 inhabitants compared to 2019 is observed. In all cities, it was the highest in 2020 for the entire eleven-year period. When comparing the ten-year impact of 2010-2019 with the value of 2020, the highest increase in gross mortality rates was in Ostrava (by 2.3 percentage points) and Liberec (by 2.1 percentage points). The most frequently observed mortality was known in Prague (by 0.6 prom. B.) and Pilsen (by 0.9 prom. B.)
In terms of the causes of death in cities of hundreds of thousands, deaths from diseases of the circulatory system have long prevailed. In second place are deaths related to neoplasms. The third place is no longer entirely clear. In Prague, Brno, Liberec and Olomouc, these are diseases of the respiratory system. In Ostrava, in 2019, there were also diseases of the respiratory system, but in 2010, diseases of the digestive system were in third place. On the contrary, in Pilsen, respiratory diseases were in third place in 2010, but in 2019 they were external causes of morbidity and mortality. The fourth and fifth place in the cities of hundreds of thousands was divided between the external causes of morbidity and mortality and diseases of the digestive system. Data on causes of death for 2020 will be available in June this year.
Increment by moving shows the difference between immigrants and emigrants in the territory concerned. The data were recalculated per 1,000 inhabitants, because due to the different population size of cities, it is not appropriate to compare absolute numbers. From 2010 to 2020, the number of immigrants in all six cities increased. The largest application was known in Pilsen, where when calculated per 1,000 inhabitants, there was an increase of 8.9 per mille points. In other cities, increases were much lower. In the second Brno by 5.3 prom. b., and I can’t in Liberec (by 0.5 prom. b.).
The highest number of immigrants in 2020 was in Prague (30.6 ‰) and then in Pilsen (28.1 ‰). This was followed by Brno (27.0 ‰), Liberec (24.2 ‰) and Olomouc (23.9 ‰). The lowest values will be reached by Ostrava (14.2 ‰). In 2020, compared to 2019, fewer people immigrated (per 1,000 inhabitants) to all cities with the expectation of Brno.
In 2019, compared to 2010, there was a slight withdrawal in Pilsen and Liberec emigrants. This trend safely in 2020 in Brno (down -2.6 per mille points) and Olomouc (-1.8 per mil. B.). In other cities, on the other hand, the number of emigrants per 1,000 inhabitants increased.
In 2020, per capita per capita, most inhabitants emigrated from Liberec (28.0 ‰), Pilsen and Olomouc (both 24.5 ‰), followed by Brno (23.9 ‰), Prague (23.3 ‰). ) and Ostrava (21.0 ‰). The number of emigrants is constantly growing in Ostrava, and since 2016 also in Liberec and Prague.
The increase in migration per 1,000 inhabitants was positive in most of the period 2010-2020 in Prague, Pilsen and Liberec. In other cities, the development of the increase due to migration fluctuated and Ostrava always achieved a decrease in population due to migration (from -7.5 ‰ in 2010 to -6.8 ‰ in 2020). The rate of increase in migration over the last 11 years has been maintained in all cities (except Liberec). Most significantly in Pilsen (+10.7 prom. B.) At 3.6 ‰ in 2020 and Brno (from purchase -2.0 ‰ in 2010 to 3.2 ‰ in 2020).
To find out the development of only the increase in population, it is necessary to look at the measure natural increase. In the years 2010 to 2019, it was always positive in Prague, Brno, Liberec and Olomouc. In 2020, you will achieve a positive natural increase per 1,000 inhabitants only in Prague (+0.8 ‰), in other cities there was a decrease in population in natural currency from -0.4 ‰ in Brno to -3.6 ‰ in Ostrava.
Gross rate good increment in three hundred thousand cities over the last eleven years. Most in Pilsen (+8.8 degrees B.) At 2.2 ‰ in 2020, which is due to the ever-increasing rate of immigrants. Ten years ago, however, Pilsen still had a total population decline. In other cities, the overall increase is no longer so important. In 2020, the rate of increase exclusively in Prague was 8.1 ‰ (+1.6 percentage points since 2010) and in Brno 2.8 ‰ (+2.8 percentage points). Another violation of the law occurred in three other cities. In Ostrava, there was a decrease in population throughout the 11-year period, and in 2020 the total decrease in population was -10.4 ‰. Thus, it increased further (in 2010 it reached -7.9 ‰).
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Terms used:
Gross rates: births, deaths, marriages, divorces, natural growth rates and migration rates are the number of a given demographic indicator per 1,000 middle-class population. The recalculation is proven in order to ensure the comparability of indicators between unequally large cities in terms of population.
Natural increase / decrease is the difference between several live births and deaths.
The increase / decrease in migration is the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.
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Contact:
Mgr. Lada Lebduskova, Mgr. Jana Podhorská
Information Services Department
Regional Administration of the CZSO in the capital Prague
Phone: +420 705 698 131
By e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
[1] Zipf’s Rank Size Rule says that the frequency of a phenomenon is inversely proportional to the order. In a simple (specific) expression, then, that the number of inhabitants of the nth city in the order corresponds to the number of inhabitants of the largest city divided by the order n.