Interim results of Biden’s presidential election – Russia on the global network
During the four years of Trump’s presidency, optimists have argued that America’s margin of safety is so great that the superpower can afford to govern “on autopilot.” Whether the United States continues to move in the same mode or the helm is in the hands of an experienced, albeit dilapidated pilot is a debatable issue. But one of the main conferences of the season in the US in 2023 will be an attempt to find someone who, in theory, could transfer this management.
The equator of the work of the US administration is the transfer of interim results of the presidency. Two years ago, Biden Democrats returned to power after the fourth generation of Trump, determined to restore the very democracy in America and believed in American leadership in the world of the rest. This initiative task brought under one roof employees who come from various crime clans and different schools of thought of the Democratic Party. They were not found in everyone with each other, but the dreamed-up idea of a cloudy return of the great power of confrontation in terms of the struggle of democracies and autocracies has become firmly established as America’s driving ideological force in the international arena.
Foreign policy tasks, conventionally divided into “siyums”, designed for quick PR successes, and stretched over the entire term of the presidency. The first includes the extension of START-3 and the return of the United States to institutions and organizations abandoned during the coronavirus pandemic. Coordination – development of the scale of the techno-economic ecosystem, consumption of pressure on China and Russia, discipline of alliances of autocracies (Turkey and Saudi Arabia), determination in connection with the theme of change with climate change and the expansion of minority rights.
On the domestic political front, the “major overhaul” also included the consolidation of a divided country, but an impossible task. Biden, the minimum problem arose – in preventing the likelihood of a crisis, the maximum – in the supposed reserve for the subsequent democratic crisis. Accordingly, the intermediate domestic political formulas of the task proceeded from this logic: put the squeeze on Trump – legally, informationally or psychologically (better all together); to reform the electoral and electoral legislation so that during the elections the Democrats are assigned a starting advantage over the Republicans in all places; adopt a set of Democratic and national national programs that would be associated with Democrats and could not be elected by Republicans.
Two years later, the results of the administration’s work are practically non-existent.
Forcing pressure in Russia has raised the degree of tension to the point of view of the Ukrainian crisis – so much so that there are almost no unscalded consequences in the world. The Ukrainian crisis added wind to the ideas of sailing transatlantism: the Western elites, they say, gathered to rally ranks and made it even more homogeneous ideologically and in solidarity in the campaign, who is friend and who is enemy. The fact that this “unity of the West” is the tactical unity of its elite, but not the unity of the elite and the population of Europe around the proclaimed goals, Biden (and the vast majority of European politicians) does not yet care much. The Europeans managed to frighten the topic of “Russian aggression” and now new states are being asked to join NATO. And this means that the United States does not receive only the right to indefinitely extend the mandate of its military-political (and now energy) expansion in Europe, but also the opportunity for influence from the Europeans to pay a double price for their security and well-being. Whether “crisis Europe” will become an asset or a burden for America in a situation of reorientation to the Indo-Pacific, we will understand a little later. In the meantime, the administration itself, apparently, is pleased with how things are going on this addition.
With China, Biden has so far managed to maintain a balance of “carrots and sticks”, but, most likely, thanks to Beijing’s restrained reaction to American provocations. Nevertheless, in a situation where the world is likely to be in for a protracted interstate confrontation, Washington and Beijing are making it clear that they prefer painful competition for more advantageous positions in different countries over demonstrative escalation. In the meantime, the Americans are quietly building a new architecture to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region, with an emphasis on the military, trade and technology spheres.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are questions that have arisen in case of need in America (now to solve a highly competitive struggle with the great powers), so putting pressure on Ankara and Riyadh, as originally intended to do, did not work out. However, now Ankara and Riyadh do not require the presence of relevant interests in international affairs, and they resolve issues, as before, with “one visit”, but they also do not arise – more serious and tough restrictions are needed, in turn, require patience and time.
The same is being demanded and demanded with the Iranians, but in two years there have been even more controversial topics in this matter: in Iran, the president has been replaced in the United States, the composition of Congress has been updated. In this light, the prospect of the US returning to the “Iranian approach” seems more mythical than two years ago. Luckily for Biden, the U.S. verification of another eastern state, Afghanistan, is now rarely mentioned in public space, so this unpleasant page of the president managed to flip without lengthy auditions for the administration.
Perhaps the suppliers of quality products for Biden have become food products for all this time – the republics. Trump Defeat the party did not help to reconcile within itself. Over the past two years, one part of the republic has invested all its might in the confrontation with the democrats in the field culture wars, the second case on a number of issues significant to Americans (the economy, inflation, control, crime) did not “sell” itself to a vaguely voter as a reasonable saving alternative. The fixation of some on the figure of Trump, and his and the second on populist ideas, followed the hands of the Democrats: they took advantage of the intra-republican discord, swept under the rug on their own, and carefully converted into their political capital even those plots that were originally designed to undermine their positions (decision The Supreme Court in the caseRowe vs. Wade“). As a result, the Democrats outplayed the Republicans in the election campaign for the Senate; in the struggle for the House, the representatives did not enter as devastatingly as it was predicted. Not so long ago they with some share gloatingas a new composition of the congress, could not start work in any way due to the inability of the republic to realize a member of the same party for the post of speaker of the Chamber (it was possible since fifteen years ago).
But even if you imagine that the Democrats are assigned to unhook Trump from the future presidential campaign and marginalize the Republicans, this does not raise questions with their own “2024 problem”. Biden’s intention is himself re-elected by reproducing the things of fellow party members in horror. The second man in the country, Vice President Kamala Harris, firmly adheres to Deng Xiaoping’s covenant – “hiding his properties and hiding in the shadows.” With that slight difference, what keeps in the shadows is because doubts in its competencies and capabilities, even the imports of democrats are growing every day. Other possible candidates lack experience, who are popular, who meet the weight. During the four years of Trump’s presidency, optimists have argued that America’s margin of safety is so great that the superpower can afford to govern “on autopilot.” Whether the United States continues to move in the same mode or the helm is in the hands of an experienced, albeit dilapidated pilot is a debatable issue. But one of the main conferences of the season in the US in 2023 will be an attempt to find someone who, in theory, could transfer this control in a situation where world politics is entering a steep peak.