“Russia receives drones from Iran, and in Ukraine it occupies 50 countries”
Retired General Ben Hodges commanded the US Army in Europe from 2014 to 2017. He currently holds the Department of Statistical Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington DC. In an interview with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service Hodges, Ukraine answers questions about how deliveries of new military vehicles from abroad could change the course of the war and analyzes the consistency in the Russian operation.
RFE/RL: The Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Soledar are under incessant fire from Russian troops, more precisely, Wagner mercenaries. Why is Bakhmut so important in the production of Ukraine? What experience in Bakhmut Yevgeny Prigozhin, the basis of Wagner PMC?
Ben Hodges: It seems to me that the time to understand why Russia, especially captures Prigozhin’s troops, pays great attention to Bakhmut. And I really see some symbolism here – for him [Пригожина] it’s almost like a vanity project. He obviously doesn’t care how many people die. They have been fighting for five months now, but they still cannot take Bakhmut. And they continue to throw untrained, mobilized soldiers there.
It is also possible that there are large salt and gypsum mines in production. Prigozhin even talked about the desire to get resources there. I don’t know how comforting it will be for the families of the thousands of those killed that it will be revealed that the essence of Prigozhin was not a very important crossroads, but gypsum mines are being pursued.
I think that this whole operation around Bakhmut takes place in the absence of a combination of Russian actions. I don’t think Prigogine obeys orders [генерала Сергея] Surovikin, and certainly he does not obey the order of the general [Валерия] Gerasimov (who on January 11 became a professor of the Joint Group of Russian Forces in Ukraine). So, who is in charge here?…. They do not have a clear and consistent plan. Fortunately, they have not yet studied and confirmed all those institutional manifestations that were revealed in early March.
RFE/RL: Maybe they are betting on the familiar to the buyers, according to which, if you throw as many people into battle as possible, then sooner or later there will be results?
Ben Hodges: The Russians have always been on the assumption that whoever has the most people wins – I mean that’s been their way of warfare for centuries – that in the end they’ll just overwhelm that Ukrainian army by numbers. But, obviously, they did not succeed, because the Ukrainians turned out to be very professional and experienced. We see that in fact accuracy can reduce mass if you have enough skill and if you prosecute him. And Ukraine constantly, when providing assistance in a variety of ways, pursues the logistics of detection – transport networks, catering warehouses.
RFE/RL: A large proportion of Western countries have announced that they will give Ukraine higher marks, including Bradley armored vehicles from the United States, Marder fighting vehicles from Germany, and lighter French infantry fighting vehicles. What damage has Ukraine suffered without them, and what can Kyiv achieve now?
Ben Hodges: Of course, I would like to see decisions on the supply of Bradley, Marder, AMX-10RC and other systems made earlier. The good news is that they are still accepted. So, the main thing that I heard from the significance is the basis for the armored brigade. Basically, you have a self-propelled artillery battalion from the Czech Republic; The AMX-10RC from France is an excellent wheeled vehicle with high mobility and a large gun; the Marder Battalion is a very good system; and also the Bradley battalion, which is the best infantry fighting vehicle in the world.
If you have all this in your hands, and then you put a Ukrainian tank battalion with engineers in the middle, you have a deadly combined arms unit that can properly support a steel fist that will help break through these endless lines of Russian trenches. That’s what I see. I don’t count the machines, I look at the possibilities… They will spend several months getting the equipment, training, practicing, for a few logistics. And I think when the Ukrainian General Staff is ready, it will use it as a real force.
RFE/RL: Some Western security experts we spoke to are more skeptical. They talk about how the deliveries are good news, but they are not strongly perceived problems, that real tanks like the M1 Abrams are actually very important, and such systems are proving to be useful. Do you agree with this assessment? And if so, do you believe that such a weapons package is also under development?
Ben Hodges: Well, of course, it would be better if they also had Abrams and / or Leopards. It seems to me that they are also on the way, but I do not know …. However, I would also not begin to assume that what we have seen of our situation occurs in a vacuum, from scratch. There are other things that the Ukrainians are doing to increase the upper phases for their possible counter-offensive, high frequency. I think this is the liberation of Crimea.
RFE/RL: We will return to the topic of Crimea, but first the question of tanks. It seems that several countries, including Poland and the UK, are almost ready to provide tanks to Ukraine. It is unlikely that this could become important for Ukraine and how could this affect the course of the war?
Ben HodgesA: It is important in terms of observing the small opportunity, if necessary, that they are related to maintenance, consumption and the ability to train. Then it can become a reality. But more importantly, such decisions signal that Western decisions are taking the next step, they are less and less connected with the fact that Russia can somehow escalate, since this is already unlikely. And although these decisions are made late, I think that it is not too late to change something. And, of course, this is not the end – after Ukraine restores the Crimea, it was built for a long time. So even if this new effect isn’t there right now—and I wish it was—in a few months, it’s still coming. So I’m all for these things…
RFE/RL: You said that you do not pay much attention to the amount of weapons provided, but nevertheless, if you look at what was provided and what the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny requested, then this is a rather significant difference. He requested 700 armored vehicles and 300 tanks. Ukraine is hardly close to receiving them?
Ben Hodges: I do not know. There are a lot of things going on that are not being talked about in… Russia is getting drones from Iran and winter uniforms from Europe, that’s it. 50 countries. Did we make it as fast as they needed? No. Have we done enough? No. Will there be more help? Hope so. If I were sitting in the Kremlin now, what would I hear? The Germans give Marder and another photo of the Patriot. There is talk of Leopards. This must be discouraging for the Russian side.
RFE/RL: Earlier, you predicted that the Ukrainian infected, perhaps by the end of 2022, would have thrown back the Russian force to those positions that they occupied before the start of the second day on February 24. Why didn’t this prediction come true?
Ben HodgesYes, obviously I was overly optimistic about that because I didn’t expect that we weren’t planning longer range systems like ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems). I thought they would be provided. It was my miscalculation. And I also did not expect Russia to sacrifice so many people in and around Bakhmut. Obviously, I miscalculated, not much, but miscalculated. The important thing is how Ukraine has adapted to the fact that Russia is working with the extremely mobilized. And it is also important that it needs the Ukrainians to be able to carry out attacks on Russian logistics and command?
I think they will liberate Crimea. Only two roads lead to Crimea: the Kerch bridge and the land bridge. One is already seriously damaged, the other will be hit. That’s what should have been in the next few months. We must eliminate the conditions for being able to do so.
If we limit what we give them in terms of range, like the GMLRS, a missile to launch from HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), to 90 kilometers, if not more, then we are essentially creating favorable conditions for Russia. Thus, Russia can strike with impunity from the Crimea or from the territory of Russia and Belarus itself. And this is expected of the innocent inhabitants of the Ukrainian world. Therefore, we must give them long-range weapons systems and ATACMS, which must hit every single target on the Crimean peninsula.
RFE/RL: So, there are chances for success in any future, a more serious Ukrainian confrontation, which will depend on the future support of the West?
Ben Hodges: Necessarily. That is, a big and bold nuance is that the West must observe in Ukraine, on this occasion, at the level of everything that we have already ordered to do.
RFE/RL: If it does, how is Ukraine likely to act?
Ben HodgesA: Hey continue to block its production in Russia after the capture of Bakhmut and the surrounding area. She needs to keep an eye on Belarus on the northern border, north of Kharkov. But here I can, although, again, be wrong, a serious attack is unlikely. The Russians are gathering part of the troops there, but they do not have the opportunity to create another serious guard for Kyiv, I do not believe in this. However, the General Staff is watching this.
I think the Ukrainians are going to build up their armored forces that they are receiving, as well as the forces that they have already trained and are saving, in order to have a greater power capable of deciding to decisively give up Crimea. But before that, they will be able to spend several months continuing to sabotage the Kerch bridge, developing a transport network that goes through Mariupol and Melitopol in the Crimea.
So, there is a lot of work to be done on possible conditions. However, I believe that this will not be just a big attack across the Isthmus of Perekop (a strip of land connecting Crimea with mainland Ukraine. – Red.) You have to create conditions with long-range fire, special forces, and then, in the end, it is easy for them to send infantry. But I think the General Staff is smart enough; The Ukrainians impressed me with how well they did everything possible to bring the loss closer and be firm and methodical.