«Whoever wins in Zurich also wins nationally»
In the canton of Zurich, government and parliament will be re-elected on February 12th. The political scientist Claude Longchamp talks about the electoral chances of the candidates.
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the essentials in brief
- On February 12, the people of Zurich will re-elect their government and parliament.
- The political scientist Claude Longchamp shares his forecasts and assessments with Nau.ch.
- According to the expert, not much will change in the government council.
Mario Fehr (former SP) will easily come back to the Zurich government council: That’s what the political scientist Claude Longchamp said in an interview with Nau.ch as well as the latest poll from Tamedia and the Sotomo Research Institute.
“Usually you know successful non-party executive politicians from the country,” Longchamp said. In a highly urban canton like Zurich, Fehr’s likely election emerged from a rupture: “It didn’t do him any harm to leave his party. A wide spectrum of people will support him, even in the red-green camp.”
Additionally, Longchamp says none of the governing council members have served the informal maximum of four full legislatures. And nobody backs down. So there is a lot to be said for the “clearly set favourites” being chosen.
Existing board members have a clear advantage
In general, the “previous bonus” plays a major role in these elections. New candidates such as Benno Scherrer (GLP) and Peter Grünenfelder (FDP) are given low election chances without resigning. Only the scandal surrounding the director of justice Jacqueline Fehr (SP) could potentially overturn the advantage of a former government councillor. “But she will be re-elected,” Longchamp is certain.
The previous bonus from government councilor Silvia Steiner (middle) could have been damaged by the criticism during the Covid pandemic: “But it could also be a deciding factor” for her election, according to Longchamp. Available the center party over the smallest «house power», which increases the person effect. “It could actually be difficult for her,” concludes the expert.
It’s a little different with the SPlerin Priska Seiler Graf the end. She is Silvia Steiner’s biggest competitor, judging by the poll Tamedia believes. Claude Longchamp agrees that Seiler Graf could get seventh place among the voters. But she would also have to achieve the absolute plus.
If the National Councilor, known as a fighter jet opponent, can do that, it would probably be “a shift”: “The SP Might stay clean despite the loss of Mario Fehr.» However, if neither Seiler Graf nor Steiner achieves an absolute majority in the first ballot, the second ballot takes place. Longchamp predicts that the official education director would then win in the more bourgeois canton of Zurich.
«Whoever wins in Zurich also wins nationally»
In terms of the cantonal council, the elections were a foretaste of the national elections. Not necessarily the strength of the change in party political composition, but the direction, says the political scientist: “Those who clearly gain or lose clearly in the canton of Zurich can expect to experience national trends.”
At the moment, these changes would be assessed as rather small – with Exception of the GLP and the SP. For these two parties in particular, the cantonal elections are “a pointer to what is going on in the autumn could happen». However, pole parties in national elections tended to benefit from a stronger focus on “politically contradictory issues”.
Will there be a surprise in the 2023 Zurich elections?
63%
No, everything stays the same.
2
No, everything stays the same.
According to Claude Longchamp, such topics could change be, due to the summer heat. But also that Ukraine war and its economic and social consequences could dominate the discourse: “We are sensitized to the rising cost of living and wage developments, die in the fall will play a role.”
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