Russia declares the capture of Soledar, Ukraine denies it. What is really going on there? What significance does this have for the course of the entire war?
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On January 11, PMC Wagner occupied most of Soledar, a small town in the central part of Donbass. Loss, the city will be completely captured soon. It is still unclear how this battle ends for the Ukrainian army: whether it was possible to retreat in an organized manner to all the battalions defending the city, or some of them were surrounded. It is also unclear how the reflection will end for the growing force: whether they will be able to reach a larger turbine to capture the entire agglomeration stretching from Gorlovka through Bakhmut and almost to Seversk.
Is Soledar already captured or only surrounded?
The situation in the center and on the outskirts of Soledar on the evening of January 11 remained not entirely clear. The head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the city “completely came under the control” of his mercenaries, but at the same time, Ukrainian military personnel were surrounded in it, and it was proposed to surrender the items. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is sparingly commenting on the situation. Vladimir ZelenskyUkrainian media and bloggers deny the environment and assure that resistance continues.
Judging by the video filmed in Soledar and the surrounding area, the situation for the APU, in any case, the interior has deteriorated:
- PMC Wagner mercenaries posed on the square near the city administration and in its courtyard, against the backdrop of the bodies of the dead Ukrainian soldiers.
- If on January 9-10, outgoing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were loaded on the southwestern outskirts of the city, then on January 11, a Ukrainian drone filmed the movement of a Wagner PMC detachment in the same place.
Prigozhin also filmed a video in a certain underground mine, vaguely reminiscent of the Soledar salt mines, but there are such mines in other cities of Donbass.
One way or another, it is impossible to say with certainty that hundreds of UAF soldiers are surrounded in the city: there is no confirmation that Russian forces control the northwestern cities (including a hit above it above sea level – Yurchina Gora); perhaps the road passing there is still open. However, there is no evidence that Ukrainian soldiers remained in Soledar at all.
What can be said for sure is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine took up defensive positions on the western outskirts of Soledar – in the area of the villages of Blagodatnoye and Krasnopolovka and at the Sol station. Loss, part of their forces went to Seversk, the other to Bakhmut.
What is the significance of Soledar for the general situation at the front?
The capture of Soledar was not only a military and political success for the Kremlin (Soledar is the first city captured by Russia since the beginning of July 2022), but will also create opportunities for achieving the larger goal of the winter operation – the occupation of the city of Bakhmut (10 kilometers south of Soledar), as well as to appear on Seversk (about 20 kilometers to the north).
However, this is still a long way off: if the Russian forces cut off the Bakhmut-Seversk road, where units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had withdrawn from Soledar, the Ukrainian group would be dissected, but this does not lead to a real disaster, since Bakhmut and Seversk reliably cover other roads from the main rear base of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kramatorsk. To cover Bakhmut, it is necessary to capture the road junction in Krasnaya Gora to the north of the city and the fortified area in the village of Kleshcheevka to the south of it. The RF Armed Forces are building up forces for: instead of this detachment of Wagner PMCs, which stormed Klevka and advanced towards Krasnaya Gora, regular units are now taking place.
On a possible (but far from guaranteed) capture of Bakhmut, the goals of this activity are used: to the west of Bakhmut is the next line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, equipped at an altitude of height in the city of Chasov Yar. At the same growth rate, which shows the high strength of the sharp drop and winter, it takes months to overcome this line – at best for them.
Then why is this battle necessary at all?
There is an assumption that the pace of the offensive is not of interest to the leadership of the RF Armed Forces: it needs to influence the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fight on its own terms and in a place that suits the Russian army. Roughly speaking, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which do not require a large capital of the city of Donbass, have to spend – at present and in an unfavorable zone – reserves and resources that they could use for a major arrival in the spring. Even (anonymous) Ukrainian commanders consider it a mistake of defense, interviewees Western journalists. According to them, “exchange [жизнями солдат в Соледаре] formed not in our use. And then retreat to the future – more advantageous in terms of topography – a defense plan, the preservation of resources for a future offensive.
Be that as it may, after the mobilization for the Russian army, the non-people resource, and the material resource, first of all, traffic, probably became more important temporarily. Western journalists from the words of the Ukrainian military causesthat the Russian army had already been forced to dramatically reduce the consumption of this resource. This has not yet prevented the PMC Wagner from conducting an offensive in the area of Bakhmut and Soledar, because the waste of equipment has been replaced by the “waste” of people. But it is unlikely that fever of increased strength – in general, regular cardiac activity, which is more sensitive to loss than PMCs – is a manifestation based on the constant compensation of the risk of morbidity by increased “expenditure” of soldiers.