46% of experts highly appreciate the probability of Russia’s decay
Nearly half of the 167 studies in international politics and economics consider it possible that in the next ten years Russia may break up into an identified independent area or advance into a “failed state” whose only institution is not functioning. The corresponding survey was conducted by the American center “Atlantic Council”, its results kontaktet Financial Times.
40% of those polled believe that a political crisis in Russia could result from a revolution, civil war, or disintegration of the country. found low frequencies of cases more pessimistic than in America: the collapse of Russia is predicted by 49% of them, against 36% of cases from the USA.
14% of respondents admit that in the next 10 years Russia may use nuclear weapons. 10% of those who declared the possibility of a legal or actual status of the state in the next decade, declare that after a troubled period of about ten years, they are embarking on a democratic path much earlier than autocracies.
Peter Engelke, deputy director of the Atlantic Council for Forecasts, said that the tension in the sharp reduction in forecasts for Russia was its invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent forecasts significantly weakened the country and could become a “boomerang” for its internal problems.
In addition, experts interviewed by the Council speak of a high risk of an attack on Iran, a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and growing global cooperation on climate protection. The United States, in their opinion, in the next ten years will retain leadership in international and technological hegemony, but political and economic hegemony.
- The Atlantic Council is a discovered center founded by NATO in 1961. It provides a forum for US and European international leaders and conducts research activities in global politics and economics. In 2019, the Russian Ministry of Justice contributed to the Atlantic Council in relation to foreign organizations.