The undeclared plan to liquidate Transnistria, already in place | Moldova | DW
Kiev recognizes and insists more and more insistently that it has a moral duty towards the Republic of Moldova, because it tolerated and even took advantage of the “black hole” called Transnistria for decades.
Now, the pro-government press in Kyiv is devoting generous spaces to analyzing this topic, suggesting that a possible defeat of Russia in the war against Ukraine should also mean the liquidation of the pro-Russian Transnistria.
The war destroyed the smuggling chain
The Ukrainian regimes after 1992 created a smuggling chain around Transnistria, together with the Russian economic elites, which strengthened Transnistria economically and made Chisinau unable to control the separatist economic region after the 1992 Moldovan-Russian Dniester war. Gradually, corrupt officials from Chisinau entered the schemes producing dirty money. The Transnistrian economy was dependent on the illegal traffic of goods to and from Odessa or other Black Sea ports. The schemes have operated for over three decades. Their foundation was laid back in the 90s, when the first “president” of the self-proclaimed breakaway republic of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, was received with great pomp by the then president of Ukraine. The press at the time of writing, for example, the then son-in-law of Ukraine allegedly owned one of the largest steel companies in Transnistria. And other politicians from Kyiv have been tempted, over the years, by the possibility of doing “business” with the separatists from Tiraspol behind Chisinau.
The war launched by Russia against Ukraine on February 24, 2022 led the Ukrainian authorities to close the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border with tanks. Absolutely nothing passes through this border segment. Along with that, smuggling also stopped, and the exponents of the separatist regime in Tiraspol started the “economic blockade” hysteria, asking Russia to save Transnistria. The stake of the leaders of the separatist regime in Tiraspol was the rapid occupation of Ukraine by the Russians and the junction with Transnistria. Only this plan failed due to the resistance of the Urinian army. The exponents of the separatist regime in Tiraspol have moderated their rhetoric in relation to Kiev – but not in relation to Chisinau.
But because of the approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers stationed illegally in Transnistria, as well as the so-called “Transnistrian army” (subordinate to the pro-Russian separatist regime), Ukraine is forced to maintain large military forces on the border with Moldova . need, perhaps, at Bahmut and Avdiivka. Only now did Kiev understand how much it was wrong that it was done, for decades, that it did not notice a problem on its border – Transnistrian separatism -, it did nothing to prevent the very emergence, and the history of the last decades shows us. that efforts were made to preserve this issue so that some corrupt people in Kyiv would have more money in their pockets.
Frankly, about Ukraine, in the perception of Moldovans: A mixture of hopes and suspicions
Moldova stands in solidarity with Ukraine in this war, it thanks the Ukrainian military for resisting and standing as a shield before the invaders, Moldova is helping the Ukrainian refugees and I honestly believe that, through this, the good side of history has been placed. But Moldova does not forget that, in 1992, it was left alone in front of the Russian army (which does not have a direct border with Moldova), which tore its territory in two by war – just like now in Ukraine. And history does not change according to the current situation. So when some decision-makers in Kyiv forget recent history, people will certainly appear in Chisinau who will refresh their memory.
For example, this is what happened in March 2022, when Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmi Kuleba reproached Moldova for trying to cling to the Ukrainian to join the EU. Then, the ambassador of the Republic of Moldova in Romania, Victor Chirilă, reminded Kuleba that Moldova paid with blood, in 1992, for the right to ask for EU membership. “We stayed when we weren’t defending independence against Russian troops and Cossacks: We built our own high speed train. Our country was the first state in the Eastern Partnership to sign the visa liberalization agreement, the Association Agreement and the in-depth and comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union. And all this-we managed our work and perseverance, riding on our own job high speed train.” But, Ambassador Chirilă specified, “we will continue to be side by side with the Ukrainian people anyway, not because we, the Moldovans, need a free ride to the EU, but because, just like us 30 years ago . . , fighting for their freedom, dignity, democracy and independence! It’s disrespectful”, the Moldovan ambassador to Bucharest, Victor Chirilă, publicly reacted in March 2022.
Ukraine was wrong about Moldova, but February 24, 2022 changed everything
“Transnistria has become a black hole of smuggling without any economic future. But, despite this fact, her fate was, for years in a row, in the hands of the authorities from Moldova and Ukraine. This gray area has brought financial benefits to the representatives of both states, forcing them to turn a blind eye to many illegalities.” admits Ukrainian journalist Sergei Sidorenko in a recently published analysis.
But, the Ukrainian journalist states, February 24, 2022 changed everything. In Ukraine they realized that Transnistria posed a national security threat. The question is how can this problem be solved now?
Chisinau sees the resolution of the Transnistrian conflict exclusively in a peaceful way, without this process affecting European countries. Maia Sandu said that Moldova must become a member of the EU by the end of this decade. However, the evolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war is uncertain, and all Putin’s maps also target the Republic of Moldova. Therefore, in 2023, Chisinau has set a record defense budget, with major investments to be made in securing the airspace. At the same time, the Chisinau authorities assure that they are working on a plan to reintegrate the country, and on the parliamentary line, criminal sanctions for separatism are introduced as levers of coercion, at a given moment, of the exponents of the illegal regime in Tiraspol.
“The bloody aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine only strengthened the desire of Moldovans to avoid war at all costs. And this is the simplest answer to the popular idea in Ukraine, according to which The Armed Forces of Ukraine should help Moldova get rid of separatism and the Russians in Transnistria.. There are no circumstances under which Chisinau would agree to the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on its territory,” Ukrainian journalist Sergei Sidorenko writes in his analysis, stating that Kiev finally understood this.
The fate of Transnistria depends on a provocative shot fired at Ukraine
Therefore, the Ukrainian journalist claims, there is only one option in which this logic will stop working: if the Russians launch a military attack on Ukraine from the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova. In this case, Ukraine would have a legitimate right to a military response without the consent of Chisinau, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will undoubtedly use. But this option is unlikely, because the exponents of the separatist regime in Tiraspol are aware of this danger. “So, the military option is practically excluded,” writes the Ukrainian journalist.
The so-called Transnistria is less than 30 kilometers wide and has a total area of 4,118 square kilometers. In Transnistria, in the village of Cobasna, a few hundred meters from the Ukrainian border, there is a huge warehouse of Soviet weapons – the largest in Europe. According to the latest available reports, 20,887 tons of ammunition and a lot of Russian military equipment are stored there. According to a study by the Academy of Sciences of Moldova, a deflagration at this deposit would be equivalent to the explosion of an atomic bomb with a capacity of 10 kilotons. A crater with a radius of 1.5 kilometers and a depth of 75 meters would form.
Transnistria, at the discretion of a signature of Maia Sandu
In recent months, in Chisinau and Tiraspol, among experts, it was discussed that President Maia Sandu would have received an offer from Ukraine regarding the Cobasna deposit and the fate of Transnistrian separatism. However, the head of state would have rejected Kiev’s proposal. The activist Ghenadie Ciorba, formerly part of the separatist regime in Tiraspol (during the period when the separatist enclave was controlled by Evgheni Șevciuk), recently spoke about such a scenario in an interview for Zonadesecuritate.md.
In his opinion, the war in Ukraine generated “an ideal situation” for the resolution of the Transnistrian conflict, all that is needed is the political will of Chisinau. “Maia Sandu can go down in history as the person who takes care of solving a 30-year-old conflict. Now there are all the objective and subjective conditions,” said Ciorba. According to him, if Maia Sandu had made the political decision when she received it (when the Ukrainian forces lacked armaments for the artillery systems left over from the Soviets), today the Ukrainian military would have already fought to recapture Crimea.
Chisinau also opposes a scenario of economic suppression of the separatist regime from Tiraspol. “We are in the same boat. Let’s not unbalance it”, says the Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Oleg Serebrian. He also admitted, in December 2022, that Chisinau made compromises in relation to Tiraspol, otherwise the war in Ukraine risks ending in the Republic of Moldova as well.
Chisinau simply would not know what to do now with a liberated Transnistria
In the absence of a political, electoral and economic assimilation plan (with billions of dollars in debt to Gazprom and companies illegally “privatized” by the Russians) of Transnistria, Chisinau is helping the separatist regime to survive, no matter how absurd and suspicious this reality looks. Moreover, at the beginning of December 2022, Chisinau ceded to Transnistria the entire volume of cheaper gas from “Gazprom” and buys from the Cuciurgan Power Plant (managed by the separatists) electricity produced from this gas. In other words, Chisinau directly finances separatism. In addition, it extended until January 31, 2023 the environmental authorization for the Rîbnița Metallurgical Plant, which generates 40%-66% of the tax revenues of the separatist enclave.