In a decade, every fifth Budapest district changed
01/05/2023 12:30 p.m
Pest, Buda and Óbuda have been united for a century and a half, but this does not mean that the perception of each area can be considered permanent. In a developing city, not only the new constructions, but also the location of the residents determine the role of a district and indicate its prestige. The data of the KSH show that between 2012 and 2021, and in the period covering the most recent real estate market cycle, they often changed their permanent residence and thus often their district with the residents of Budapest. And even though the population of the capital and district will decrease during this entire period, quite a few have grown handsomely at the expense of the others through these moves.
In ten years, more than 365,000 Budapest residents, 20 percent of the capital’s permanent population, changed permanent residence, but there are only four such districts (XIII., XVI., XXII., XXIII.), some of which have (a) natural population growth – birth and the balance of deaths – because we are not counting here) were able to increase their population. The most successful of them is XIII. was, with an increase of 4 percent. The last extreme is VII. district, where the number of district citizens decreased by 11 lower. The difference in local real estate prices can hardly explain this huge difference, as the former is the 7th and the latter the 9th most expensive district in the capital. (Based on NAV’s real estate database, this meant HUF 807,000/m2 and HUF 747,000/m2 in 2021.)
Erzsébetváros is one of the three inner-Pest districts, only the moves within the capital have lost more than a tenth of their population in ten years (VII -14.9%, VI -12.4%, V -11.7% ). A kind of function change can also be seen in these cases. As Dávid Valkó, the leading analyst of OTP Ingatlanpont, recalls: the development of the business district of the V. district is an older process, there have been a large number of apartment offices twenty-five to thirty years ago. Since then, investment purchases and short-term housing rentals (Airbnb) have dominated the wider city. As a result of the increased business interest, there was also a big price increase here, which could encourage many to realize the profit, which, calculated as the difference between the average price per square meter of these three districts in 2012 and 2021, means a 3-3.5 times increase in value. at the end of the cycle, even Covid could have greatly stimulated the move, which drove people towards the green belt.
The loss of the population of the districts of Bel-Pest is the result of the large number of comings and goings. For example, the number of people moving into district V in ten years reached 30 percent of the district’s population, and those who left during that time reached 42 percent. However, intensive movement does not mean a big loss. For example, district I, where moving activity was also outstanding (inward: 34%, outward: 37%), overall suffered only a very small loss from this population exchange.
The high frequency of moving only means that a district would not be a good place, or that the supply may be excessively dependent on the life cycle. Dávid Valkó cites the city of Pest as an example that “as a single young person, it can be ideal in the middle of the bustling city center, but with two children, it is no longer the most attractive environment”. The statistics also show that the number of relocations is generally low in areas where the range of housing in the district is quite colorful, i.e. where there are housing estates, garden cities, and a selection of new constructions. You don’t have to “move out” from here when someone’s living conditions change. A good example of this is III. or even the XVIII. district, in which the proportion of people moving out and moving in is only about half to a third of that of an inner-city district.
Another principle is that the price level of real estate does not necessarily matter when choosing a moving destination, of which Csepel is a good example. A XXI. and XXIII. the price level of the district is almost the same (487 thousand HUF/m2 and 493 thousand HUF/m2 in 2021) compared to the average price of 692 thousand HUF/m2 in the capital, but in Soroksár the proportion of people moving there is twice that. “Even though Csepel has an extensive garden area, this is probably not the first thing that comes to mind for the district,” points out the leading analyst. The legitimacy of his comment is also indicated by the fact that in this decade, Csepel is not only home to those who move in, but also those who leave it also held the capital’s minimum peak in terms of the proportion of people moving out (13 and 11 respectively).That is, although in proportion to the population, the fewest people from within the capital try to move here, but those who have tried life in Csepel once will most likely stick with it.
There are six districts where the profit from relocations reaches at least 4 percent of its population. These up-and-comers are all located on the outskirts of the city. In the north, the III. district (4%), which offers a variety of home options in all kinds of environments – from the riverside to residential areas to the mountains – at close to the average price per square meter in the capital city (HUF 690,000/m2). In the east, the 16th and 17th centuries are growing in a continuous block. and the XVIII. district (5-7.3%). These are typically cheaper than the average (540-650 thousand HUF/m2) and in some places even more homely, in garden city areas, in which relatively many new apartments have been built recently. In the south, the XXII. (8.3%) and XXIII. district (5.9%) grew the fastest at the expense of the others. If you have been looking for a cheap garden city in the last decade, then your journey may have taken you here. If you stuck to Buda, you couldn’t find anything more affordable than Budafok-Tétény (HUF 597,000/m2). If he preferred Pest, then Soroksár, which is one of the cheapest districts of the entire capital, could be a solution for him.