Luke: The EU may fine Finland 7 billion euros for the collapse of the carbon sink | News
According to a report published by the Natural Resources Center (Luke) on Wednesday, Finland’s failure to achieve the net carbon sink target set by the EU could lead to a compensation bill of billions of euros for the Nordic countries.
“This is a national emergency,” Prof Jyri Seppälä said. Seppälä works as the director of the Sustainable Consumption and Production Center of the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE).
Finland’s land use sector, which is mainly commercial forests, has moved from a carbon sink to a source of net emissions. the information was confirmed last week.
Markku OllikainenChairman of the Finnish Climate Panel, previously warned that the government’s commitment to make Finland carbon neutral by 2035 is slipping out of reach.
Luke’s report outlined four different scenarios, three of which would mean that Finnish taxpayers would pick up several billion euros. A fourth scenario, in which no compensation would be needed, is highly unlikely, Luke noted.
In the three most likely scenarios, different flexibility mechanisms would lead to the need to buy carbon sink units either from other sectors, such as transport, or from other EU countries that have exceeded their climate targets in the land use sector.
The amount of monetary compensation paid by Finland would depend on the extent of the collapse of the carbon sink. According to estimates, carbon dioxide emissions vary between 49 and 160 million tons, which would otherwise be trapped in Finland’s forests, according to Luke.
The most likely range is 50-80 million tons, says researcher Luke Tarja Tuomainen said.
Bill in billions
Finland is threatened with a decrease of 2-7 billion euros, because the carbon sink no longer produces a net reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, according to Seppälä’s calculations.
However, he added that the final total amount cannot be accurately stated, as the costs depend on the price of the carbon sink units purchased from the EU. Currently, the price of emission units in the EU emissions trading is 80 euros per ton of carbon dioxide.
“I believe that the unit price of carbon sinks is somewhat cheaper. I have calculated the unit price of 40 euros,” Seppälä said.
The final total amount will be known in 2025.
This situation has arisen from the EU’s so-called LULUCF regulation (you switch to another service)which sets targets for preserving the EU’s carbon sinks by 2030 and binds the member states to commit to ensuring that calculated emissions from land use are fully compensated by a corresponding calculated CO2 removal.
Different countries have different targets depending on their GDP and baseline level of carbon sink at the beginning of this century.
The review is divided into two five-year periods. The first period covers the years 2021-2025.
Scientists warned for years
The collapse of Finland’s carbon sinks has not come as a surprise to climate scientists.
Luke made a similar assessment in 2016, when Finland received a binding commitment from the EU regarding the reference level of carbon sinks.
Also in 2018, there were indications that Finland’s carbon sinks fell to a low level, and Luke’s calculations at the time showed that Finland might not meet the EU’s climate goals.
“At the time, it seemed that Finland’s promise might not be fulfilled. Even then, the outcome looked pretty bleak,” Tuomainen said.
Finland’s climate panel has also been warn of this possibility for several years, most recently in the summer.
Climate scientists have criticized the LULUCF regulation for not guaranteeing the preservation of carbon sinks. Last spring, the climate panel advising the Finnish government found a carbon sink rescue package necessary and a review of the land use climate plan.
Luke’s report suggests that politicians did not heed this advice, or at least did not take corrective action.
“We have been aware of this and researchers have warned about it, but there has been a need to achieve the logging goals set at the time,” Seppälä said.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as the Finnish Ministry of Finance have all brought up the issue of carbon sinks when commenting on Finland’s climate policy.
In its annual climate report published in November, the government noted the collapse of carbon sinks, but did not propose measures to solve the problem.
Environmental groups took over the government of Finland In the Supreme Administrative Court in November, what they see as insufficient actions to combat climate change, including inaction on carbon sinks.
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