Why Europe is not frozen without Russian gas. And how long will she last?
- Alexey Kalmykov
- BBC
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Photographer, AFP
Even dead Europeans take it upon themselves to cut gas purchases from Russia
Europe saves light and heat, shuts down furnaces and crematoriums, turns off street and storefront lighting. All in order to survive in the gas war that the Kremlin unleashed against the EU even before the invasion of Ukraine. Does she manage?
A third of the heating season, and the results are impressive. 27 countries consume a population of 450 million people, increasing consumption by a quarter, and now Europeans are almost sure that they survived this winter without blackouts.
How did they manage to do it, what did it cost and how long will the money and patience last?
First round for Europe
Gas did not fall under the European requirements for oil and coal, because the EU did not want to give up cheap and relatively clean fuel. However, Vladimir Putin himself turned on the tap: during the invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin-controlled Gazprom, under fiber pretexts, EU gas consumption by 80%.
With the EU buying 40% of all gas in Russia, finding alternative markets even at exorbitant prices, the Europeans are haunted by the specter of rolling shutdown industries and mass unrest freezing among the population.
But that did not happen. Five together.
1) Russia did not completely cut off supplies.
2) Gas storages are assembled almost to match.
3) People and businesses are helped with subsidies.
4) The weather in October and November was record warm.
5) Europeans have learned (or used) to save gas.
Of these reasons, only the last – gas consumption – infections are at the mercy of the EU countries. From now on, Europeans are going to focus on it in order to approach not only the first winter gas reflection with the Kremlin, but the entire energy war.
“Now we are preparing for the next winter. Not for this winter, but for the next one. We’re safe this winter” said Ursula von der Leyen.
“Of course, we died at this high price,” she added.
Photographer, Reuters
Paris saves to the southeast. But not for a holiday.
The countries targeted by the EU under the €600bn energy crisis deal are almost half of Germany, the international meeting of the EU and the main importer of Russian gas before the war. Including non-EU plans, the UK has spent 100 billion in subsidies to the public and businesses, Kremlin’s gas war has already cost Europe 700 billion eurosunder investigation Brueghel Research Center.
For the second winter, such generosity came from nowhere, because due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe is plunging into other economic crises faster than countries, barely having time to recover from covid. It would be possible to use energy independence from Russia through other investments or green energy – but this is long and expensive.
Therefore, the main task of the Europeans now is the economy.
“Reducing costs, we accept bills for electricity, and harmful emissions, and damage from the Russian gas games, – said said European Commissioner Vice-President of the European Commission Franz Timmermans. “Nothing will happen without reducing demand.”
How Europe saves gas
The EU agreed to save back in the summer, when it realized that after a year of slow turning on the gas valve, Putin moved on to sudden movements.
Compared to peak values three years ago, up to 250 million cubic meters per day. And already in early July, a drop to a historic low, below 80 million. At the end of July, 27 EU countries decided that Russia as a reliable supplier of energy resources for their loss forever, and pledged to reduce gas consumption by 15% compared to the average over the past five years.
The plan was exceeded.
Photographer, Getty Images
Pipes for a gas pipeline in Hamburg from a new terminal for receiving liquefied natural gas on the North Sea coast in Germany. Europe urgently replaces Russian pipeline gas with sea supplies of liquefied
In the first two months of gas consumption in the EU, 24% is taken into account, calculated by the research center ICIS. The fall in consumption in the two industrial powers of the EU – Germany and Italy – exceeded 21%. Having said goodbye to food, Britain got on more modestly – by 19% in November.
How did they do it? Voluntary-compulsory.
Up to 40% of gas consumption in Europe falls on people: they heat gas, heat water and cook food. About 30% consume electricity.
Demand in the industry includes mainly voluntary, since subsidies for people are incomparably higher than for factories and enterprises, and prices are lower.
First of all, the savings come from energy-intensive production, which accounts for slightly more than half of all industrial gas consumption: steel and cement plants, glass and ceramics manufacturers, fertilizers and other types of petrochemicals.
If the situation is not corrected, a temporary decline in risk can cause and undermine the industrial basis. Some will move to other countries, such as the US, where oil and gas production is plentiful, which means energy supplies are cheaper, more accessible, and more reliable.
Less energy-intensive businesses and the public sector have an easier choice. Relaxing rules, African energy, or just breaking habits of increased consumption.
It’s great to illuminate the town hall or a spring in the square, it’s nice to sit in a well-heated library or office, it’s fun to stare at night shop windows. But this is supposed to be a fall, a radical end to the war in Europe.
In France, Spain and other countries, it is now illegal to light up closed stores, and keep the doors in them during the day when the heating or air conditioning is on. Street lighting is dimmed, the buildings do not exceed +19°C, and then only during the day, and there is no hot water in the toilets.
Even dead people have an impact on gas dependence in Russia.
German crematoria welcome their plan – how to pay the same number of dead with 80% gas savings. Some of the ovens are ordinary, others are switched to a constant mode, the temperature is reduced to 750 ° from 850 °.
For all this, only permission is needed, Reuters quotes the head of the Union of German Crematoria, Svend-York Sobolevsky.
Photographer, Getty Images
Backlighting in Europe is no longer in vogue. Berlin Cathedral and Berlin TV Tower
Reuters of receipt and another example of alternative energy consumption in the territory bordering the afterlife. According to the agency, the Diocese of Roermond, in the light of energy thinking, allowed three hundred of its priests of the Roman Catholic Church in the Netherlands to start a Mass or two – in order to save money.
The population does not yet oblige to save and not even return – they only advise. And that’s not for everyone. In the UK, for example, the previous government refused to compensate for the cost of an advertising road, and only after the change of prime minister of Great Britain agreed to send letters to people by mail about the benefits of energy saving.
In the meantime, according to profile studies, reducing the temperature in British homes by just 1 ° C can reduce gas by up to 7%. A similar measure is relevant for the major economies of Europe, where the share of increased gas is mainly for Italy, the Netherlands and Germany.
“First Cold Check”
Therefore, not industry, but people – the only hope for the European dependence on gas in Europe.
At present, the population is limited by reserves and limited by gas fuel reserves. Because of this, many do not like the need to save. Prices for light and heat, if explained, are not much, and people do not meet the needs of reducing consumption. The market mechanism of demand disruption is stalling.
“Many countries still mistakenly consume energy where health is needed,” European Commissioner Timmermans lamented. “This approach is fraught with risks.”
Photographer, Getty Images
Hot October and warm November were replaced by an unusually fierce December in Europe. Edinburgh 9 December
The reduction in demand is particularly relevant because acute inflammation has set in, allowing Europe to painlessly survive the beginning of the heating season, despite an 80% drop in imports from Russia, most likely with an entry to nothing.
1) Russia still supplies gas to Europe, but it can completely turn off the tap at any time. The EU promises to implement the gas price ceiling by the New Year, and Putin has already obliged everyone who subscribes to it.
2) Gas storages by the next heating season will not be filled by 95%, as this year, only by 65%, ICIS analysts admit. The main reason is the likely gas blockade by the Kremlin.
3) Subsidies to people and businesses in the current discovery are excluded. First, they are common and do not allow for a reduction in consumption. Secondly, they simply do not have enough public money. According to the European Commission, 70% of state support is the carpet bombing of all contractors, and not those in great need. In order to save money, funds naturally shift to subsidizing only the poorest and neediest citizens. The bounty festival is over.
4) Warm autumn gave way to cold winter. Northern Europe is experiencing an unusually cold December. Gas consumption in Germany, according to the regulator, increased over the past week by 14%. The economy is still substantial, at around 13%, compared to the five-year average, but down from 23% in November and 26% in October.
In general, the picture is similar in Europe.
“Demand for gas in the EU and Britain for the week by December 6 is 10% against the five-year average. In October it was 22%, in October – 24%, in September – 12%,” writes Tom Marzek-Manser, head of gas analysts at ICIS. .
“Welcome to the first cold test.”