Russia still saves hypersonic missiles / Warriors and Armies / Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Air defense from the US and NATO will protect far from all objects of Ukraine
In the photo, the MiG-31 with a hypersonic missile “Dagger”. Photo by Pavel SarychevNG-Online
Moscow believes that the missile strikes of the Armed Forces (AF) of the Russian Federation, transferred through the “system of military command of Ukraine and the implementation of energy facilities with it”, are effective. In Kyiv, this is denied and revealed. Kyiv says that for the greater reliability of the air defense of the United States and countries, new deliveries of anti-aircraft missile systems and systems, including Patriot, are needed. Both NATO and Ukraine are preparing to continue hostilities.
Both Ukraine and its NATO allies have been waiting for weeks that Russia is about to run out of long-range cruise missiles. Back in early November 2022, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR), Vadym Skibitsky, told the Economist magazine that the Russian Armed Forces “have only 20% of modern missiles left.”
Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicted a week ago that Russia has practically no such missiles, and the November 15 attack is one of the last and “Russia can reduce the rate of strikes against Ukraine’s nuclear facilities.” ISW specialists noted that, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), on November 15, “Russian military personnel are about 100 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles at premises in Ukraine.” Air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down 73 missiles and all drones. On October 10, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 43 out of 84 cruise missiles (and 13 drones).” The ISW believes that this is the success of the country’s air defense. But is it?
“After November 15, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched massive attacks on the Southern Machine-Building Plant in Dnipro on November 17, at a gas production facility. President Volodymyr Zelensky was then very indignant at the damage from these strikes, recalls retired military expert Colonel Nikolai Shulgin. – And it is imperceptible that high-precision weapons are running out in Russia. This is especially evident from the arrivals of missiles on November 23. In Kyiv, they complain that civilian infrastructure has been disabled in the city. But, judging by the pictures on social networks, you can find that fragments from NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) missiles often appear on them. The damage was caused by the actions of the Ukrainian military, which were called by the air defense system for the armed forces.” The Russian Defense Ministry also stated that “not a single strike was made on outbreaks within the city of Kyiv,” and all the destruction in the city reported by Ukrainian representatives “began to be detected by emissions of foreign and Ukrainian air defense systems deployed in residential areas.”
The Armed Forces of Ukraine summarizes statistics on missiles shot down in the general sphere in a very peculiar way. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny, out of 67 airborne (Kh-101 / Kh-555) and sea-based cruise missiles (Caliber) sent by the Russian Armed Forces on November 23 across Ukraine, 51 units were seized. That is, according to Kyiv, the goal has reached every fourth KR (16 units, that is, about 24% of all launched ones). At the same time, in Kyiv, where the main air defense research forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrated, including the reinforced US-Norwegian NASAMS anti-aircraft air defense systems, this figure was higher. According to Zaluzhny, 30 missiles were fired at Kyiv, of which 20 were destroyed, that is, every third one reached the target. There is no objective information that would repeat such statistics in everything. At the same time, the Russian military department found that the target was the site of the strike of the Kyrgyz Republic on November 23: “All the detected lesions. As a result of the strike, the transfer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reserves, foreign weapons, street equipment and public transport in the areas of hostilities by rail was disrupted.
Kyiv recorded a lot of damage It is possible that the Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine German Galushchenko said on Thursday that “due to another massive Russian rocket attack in many regions of the country, including Kyiv, the capture of blackouts. Three nuclear power plants were disconnected from the power system: Khmelnytsky, Yuzhno-Ukrainskaya and Rivne, most of the thermal and hydroelectric power stations were de-energized. Damage to the power system also occurred in Odessa, Kharkov, Dnipro, Lvov, Nikolaev and other cities.”
It is hard to imagine that such losses of solar energy amount to only 16 Russian CDs. According to General Zaluzhny, “10 Tu-95ms missile-carrying aircraft ordered Kh-101/555 missiles from the nearby Volgodonsk region and the Caspian Sea, and Kalibri from two small missile boats from the waters of Montenegro.” “Distances are good. Impact results, too. The probability, the probability of the effectiveness of the operational-strategic control of air-missile and naval bases is higher than those that were announced in Kyiv on November 23, – retired military expert Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev told NG. – These missiles were mainly developed during the Soviet era, were finalized in the 90s – early 2000s and are now mass-produced at Russian defense enterprises. The probability of hitting a target with one Kh-101, Kh-555 or Caliber missile is in the range of 0.7–0.8. That is, two missiles are installed with a guarantee.
At the same time, Netkachev drew attention to the fact that Moscow is not yet using mass hypersonic weapons, and the current air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to do anything with objects. “For the entire period of hostilities in the course of performing the tasks of the NMD, the 9-A-7660 Kinzhal hypersonic aviation complex was required only three times,” the expert says. – Only three missiles were fired, and all according to the urgent load. Meanwhile, as part of the Southern Military District in 2021, a whole regiment of carriers of such weapons was created – the MiG-31K long-range supersonic interceptor fighters. There is no data yet on how many aircraft it has in the state. But it seems to me that at least 30. And the ammunition load for them “Daggers” should be at least 10 units for each aircraft. That is, the probability that Russia with a 100 percent probability can hit at least 300 strategic targets in Ukraine.”
According to statistics, hypersonic Kh-32 tactical missiles and Iskander-K complexes were also hardly involved in Ukraine. “There are also a lot of them in the RF Armed Forces. According to my estimates, at least 400-500 missiles, ”says Netkachev, in his opinion, while such missiles remain, and if modern American Patriot air defense systems are installed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then hypersonic missiles will come in handy. “So far, missiles like X-101 and Caliber are showing themselves well in business. They are also not afraid of American Patriot-type air defense systems,” the general said.