What is in the interest of Greece: Victory or defeat of Erdogan in the elections in Turkey? – Where we will excel for the next 20 years
The elections in Turkey, scheduled for June 2023, concern our country as much as ours, not even if Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announces them. At a time when polls show the almighty, for Turkey’s interior, Erdogan losing, a key question arises. What is in Greece’s interest? Victory of the current president or a change of baton with the opposition taking the anointing?
Invited to podcast of Newsbeast is the Konstantinos Weaver. The professor of International Relations at Panteion University, in addition to being a connoisseur and scholar of Turkish reality, has lived there for about a decade. His opinion has special weight. “The perception that exists and with which I do not agree is that the opposition will be a worse opponent for Greece. Because it incorporates very nationalist elements, because the narrative of the “blue homeland”, they say, is not going to leave the table. Because even now there are members of the opposition who go too far in a nationalist frenzy at the expense of Greece. Things are not exactly like that“, he answers us.
And the professor explains why: “The opposition, if it prevails, is a set of at least six different parties. It will not be at all monolithic like the AKP. There are more progressive, and more extroverted. Westerners who do not see Turkey in an Asian coalition. It also has an electorate that comes from the right and adopts the rhetoric we are now living with from the AKP. The key members of the opposition will be fixing the economy and normalizing relations with a number of regional actors and with the West. Perhaps we cannot discern a window of opportunity, at least for de-escalation. I am not at all sure that it will be worse if the opposition is elected than if President Erdogan remains».
Of course, Erdogan may fall; how easy is it when he has controlled everything for two decades? “For the past two years, the polls have consistently insisted that there are opponents who can prevail in an election contest. The landscape is extremely dynamic,” the professor explains. “We are talking about a country that could be characterized as deficit. Even as a “disabled democracy”. The democratic deficit is huge. This means that the Erdoğan regime, because it is a regime, fully controls the joints of power. President Erdogan will exhaust the possibilities and tools he has to create such a climate and prevail. He could create a security crisis, exercise his constitutional right to postpone elections for up to a year. It is an extreme scenario but it cannot be ruled out by Turkey itself.” In a crisis, could Greece be used by Erdogan? “Of course. One of the main targets of Erdogan and his ministers is Greece”.
And if he falls, who might be the end of the current president? “The Erdogan regime is suspected of a series of actions that may be outside the bounds of the law. It is extremely difficult to imagine how such an all-powerful president could be led to a bad end, but nothing is out of the question. It depends on what terms he will lose, how much important pillars will continue to support him.”
Where does our country excel militarily compared to Turkey? “By strictly quantitative indicators, we are on a course of restoring a favorable balance between the two countries, particularly in the air. For the next 15-20 years, our country will be, perhaps, one step ahead. And it’s good to plan for the day after the 20th anniversary”, emphasized Mr. Yfantis.
Listen to the interesting analysis of the professor of International Relations at Panteion University, Constantinos Yfantis, on Newsbeast
Timetable
1:05 Several analyzes and publications say that the Recep Tayyip Erdogan he is faced with the specter of defeat in the upcoming elections. How likely is the Turkish president to find or create the opportunity he is looking for to postpone the election process?
7:03 If Erdogan is defeated, is his fate at stake, as well as that of his family? What can happen when he is in the spotlight for two decades and controls everything?
9:54 Could Erdogan sit in the opposition seat after two decades of absolute rule?
10:35 Does Greece benefit from an Erdogan victory or a defeat that will bring something new to our relations?
15:16 The image that the common people in Turkey have of Greece.
19:18 Does the scenario for the dismemberment of Turkey have a basis or is it moving in the realm of fantasy?
21:37 Do they abroad believe Turkey’s rhetoric that we support and train terrorists?
22:28 Militarily, what is superior to our country against the Turks?
26:16 Will Greece proceed to extend our territorial waters to 12 nautical miles?
31:16 Turkey has tried in the recent past to take Albania as well as North Macedonia on its side. What is the role of these two countries and what is their attitude towards Greece’s foreign policy?
35:55 What were the results of the US midterm elections? How much do the negative ones affect the interests of our country?
41:45 What will happen, in the end, with the F-35s that Greece wants to buy from the USA, but also what will happen to the F-16s that it is eagerly looking for in Turkey?
45:03 Why is it difficult for Turkey to be completely marginalized by the US?
47:42 War in Ukraine. After 9 months, has Russia ‘shrunken’?
55:02 Are we in the midst of a different world war?
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