Norwegian politics, Denmark | Thriller election in Denmark: The impossible may have become possible
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (Social Democracy) has led Denmark’s minority government since 2019 with the support of Radikale Venstre, Enhedslisten and the Socialist People’s Party in the Folketing.
On 5 October, Frederiksen called for new elections as a result of the so-called mink scandal (illegal mass slaughter of mink during the pandemic). On Tuesday 1 November, the Danes go to the polls to decide the new composition of the Danish Parliament.
Frederiksen has advocated a new government collaboration across the traditional lines of Danish politics (red and blue block). So has Denmark’s former Prime Minister and former Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who has recently formed the new Moderate party.
Løkke Rasmussen and Frederiksen are in place and have emerged as the new main opponents in the election campaign, while they may also be able to become partners in the government coalition formed after the election.
For main scenarios
The traditional opposition leaders and prime ministerial candidates Søren Pape Poulsen (Conservative People’s Party, also referred to as The Conservatives) and Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (Venstre) have thus ended up in the shadows. Much depends on Løkke Rasmussen and Frederiksen becoming the protagonists in government negotiations after the election.
– It’s a close race, but there are two main scenarios you can imagine. One is that the red block gets a narrow majority without the Moderates. Then Mette Frederiksen will be able to continue with supplements to new parties in government, such as the Radical Left, says election researcher at Denmark’s Media and Journalism College, Roger Buch, to Nettavisen.
– A few weeks ago, it was impossible for the red bloc to survive with a majority. But it is that things that have happened. First of all, the Conservatives have huge problems, and the Liberals, which were traditionally the biggest parity, do not have the power to get back to old heights, says Buch.
The Conservative People’s Party has had a sharp drop compared to the percentage of the last months – down from 16 to 6 percent support. While the Left is stable at around 13 percent. The Social Democrats are the country’s largest party with around 26 percent support, according to the polls. The newly established parity of the Moderates stands at 9 percent support, and will likely end up in a certain tipping point.
– The second is that the election campaign has been absolutely perfect for the red bloc. The issues that have dominated the election campaign have been to the great advantage of the red bloc. In first place it has been health and pensions, in other places it is climate and the environment and in third place it is schools and daycare centers. These are issues that are important to Red Bloc, says Buch.
– Economy and defence, which are normally extremely important for the blue block, have been all the way down to fifth and fourth place respectively. It seems that health has been very good for Løkke Rasmussen. He has talked a lot about a new health reform. The paradox is that the health system that Denmark has today was created by Løkke Rasmussen himself, says Buch.
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– In principle, anything is possible
There are a total of 14 parties fighting for mandates in the Folketing. It requires 90 mandates to get the necessary majority. Løkke Rasmussen can, in principle, end up as prime minister with an extremely high degree of luck.
– You can say that in principle anything is possible. Løkke Rasmussen can become prime minister in a government consisting of both blue and red parties. But the Radical Left has clearly said no and the Conservatives have clearly said no. So it looks like it might be difficult to achieve. But previous government negotiations have shown that unexpected things can happen, says Buch.
Buch says that there will probably be very demanding government negotiations after the election, none of the blocs will get a clear majority to govern. In the worst case, protracted negotiations may take place, but Buch believes that a solution will most likely be in place after a few weeks.
– One possibility could be a government collaboration in the middle between the Social Democrats, the Liberals and the Moderates. But the big problem is who will be prime minister. The Social Democrats’ principle is that they will not enter a government without having the Prime Minister. And the Liberals have signaled that they do not want a government with a prime minister from the Social Democrats. Venstre is Løkke Rasmussen’s old party, so there are no warm feelings between the Moderates and Liberals, he says.
– Who do you think will be Denmark’s next prime minister, Bush?
– If we take today’s opinion polls as our starting point, none of the blocs has a clear majority. I think it will be a solution in the middle. It may be the Social Democrats and the Moderates who join forces. But it can also become a grand coalition consisting of several parties, such as The Social Democrats, the Moderates, the Conservatives and the Radical Left, he says.
– But does Løkke Rasmussen have the opportunity to become prime minister?
– Yes, he has an opportunity. But it is very small. He has so many political enemies who are against him, and not just from his old party Venstre. The new party Danmarksdemokratene (extremely on the right-wing ed. note), which is led by a former Liberal politician, Inger Støjberg, is also problematic. It is called air between the two former party comrades. The Danish Democrats will not go into government with Løkke Rasmussen as prime minister. My best tip would be Mette Frederiksen in one form or another, says Busch.
Joker – tongue in cheek
Election researcher and professor of politics at the University of Aarhus, Rune Stubager, says Rasmussen will be able to play a role in who ends up getting the task of forming a new government in Denmark.
– It is very difficult to predict any outcome. If the Moderates end up losing weight, Løkke Rasmussen has said that he wants a broad coalition government consisting of several parties from the two blocs. The Conservatives and Liberals have rejected this very clearly. If Løkke Rasmussen enters into a government collaboration with the Social Democrats, he will probably risk a lot of criticism from the right wing and lose quite a few voters from there, because most of his voters come from the blue block, says Stubager to Nettavisen.
– This will be a game of whether he will force the other parties to enter into a broader collaboration if he ends up as the tongue on the scales, says Stubager.
– A government collaboration between the red and blue bloc in Norway works quite easily. Are the Danes very pragmatic, Stubager?
– The idea of a broader collaboration is in place and completely in line with what most voters want and how they want the politicians to behave. And in reality, the policy is based on broad, cross-party agreements. Strictly speaking, we do not need a broad government to reach agreements, says Stubager.
Candidate for prime minister?
Løkke Rasmussen has not officially launched himself as a candidate for Prime Minister, but that may change as soon as the government negotiations are underway after the election.
– He has not launched himself directly, as it may be to a large extent, depending on election results and government negotiations. It may be that he manages to put himself in a position where there are no other options but to have him in charge, says Stubager.
– What do the opinion polls say the day before the day?
– They say that Løkke Rasmussen is the tongue in the balance. A pure blue majority seems impossible. A pure red majority is not a foregone conclusion either. I will be very surprised if it turns out to be a pure red majority. Mette Frederiksen may become prime minister, but it will require difficult negotiations, especially with the Radical Left, says Stubager.
It was Radikale Venstre who issued an ultimatum to Mette Frederiksen earlier this fall, where they threatened a motion of no confidence. The background is the so-called mink scandal, where it has emerged that Prime Minister Frederiksen’s order to harvest mink during the pandemic was illegal.
Stubager does not think the mink scandal has had any particularly negative impact on Frederiksen and the Social Democrats.
– I think we have already seen the consequences of this scandal. Those who wanted to leave the Social Democracy because of this have already done so. It seems that the party has managed to come back with new proposals and agreements after the summer, which form a really solid background for running an election campaign, says Stubager.
– A horse’s head ahead of everyone else
The day before the day, Nettavisen talks to former leader of Radikale Venstre’s youth party, Radikal Ungdom, Simon Dyhr, who works for the Electric Vehicle Association.
– This is a very, very exciting choice. For the first time in many decades, we can very likely get a government above the middle, says Dyhr to Nettavisen.
– In my opinion, the clear winner was: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, says Dyhr.
He refers to Løkke Rasmussen as a political leader in Danish politics.
– It turns out again and again that he excels with his knowledge, strategy and ability to communicate.
With his 12–15 mandates, he is very likely to end up on the tipping point. Dyhr believes it is not inconceivable that Løkke Rasmussen could become Denmark’s next minister of health and welfare.
– Nevertheless, Mette Frederiksen is likely to win the election a horse’s head ahead of everyone else, and thus ensure that the Social Democrats get the most important positions with the Prime Minister close behind.
– Who do you think will lead Denmark after the verdict is handed down on Tuesday?
– The Social Democrats and the Moderates, perhaps also with the Socialist People’s Party and the Radical Left.