Get used to it: waiting longer for your train, solar panel from childcare
The short answer? Get used to it. Because even in the long term, four years from now, there will be a shortage of personnel, is expected.
Unemployment up slightly
Unemployment has risen slightly since April, but Peter Hein van Mulligen does not want to call that more than a ‘very slight turnaround’. He is chief economist at Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
The rise in unemployment after years of decline means that more people have started looking for work. On the other hand, more people have also lost their jobs in recent months.
These people may find new work less easily than in the past period. That is because of the employment contract that is creeping into the economy, says Rob Witjes, expert of the UWV benefits agency.
Hesitation about vacancies
“That presents employers with a dilemma: they want to retain people for a long time, but they also have to deal with higher costs,” Witjes says. And the easiest way to save is not even hiring new people. “We hear from employers that they are considering waiting with vacancies,” he says.
That is not reflected in the figures, but there is doubt, Witjes says. In the Westland, for example, where growers have to deal with high energy costs. “If they stay that way, will they still need that many employees?”
slightly more offer
“Of course there are companies in these uncertain circumstances that have the last of something,” says Dominique Hermans, CEO of Randstad Netherlands. That could be the high energy price or the disrupted supply chain. “It does happen here and there,” says Hermans. But it’s not as widespread as you might suspect if you don’t add up, she added.
The fact that the economy appears to be cooling down could be beneficial for a company that is desperate for personnel, such as the NS. “We are not there to cheer, but the guard duty you fish seems to be getting bigger,” says Erik Kroeze of the NS. “But of that will go fast enough is the question.”
The transport company has 2200 vacancies. “There are also places that we expect to fill in the future,” explains Kroeze. NS has to find it on time, because of the delay effect because new staff also have to be trained to become conductors of train drivers.
According to Kroeze, September was a low point in terms of traffic on the railways and things went better. Nevertheless, for the time being, the NS is still running with a more sober timetable than that of before the corona crisis. He does not dare to say when the service will be back to the old level. “That depends on many factors.”
Overall Deficiencies
And the misery in aviation is not over for the time being either. Schiphol Airport recently announced that it cancel thousands of flights until well into 2023 due to the shortage of security personnel.
And KLM airline is also suffering from the ‘huge labor market shortages’, according to CEO Marjan Rintel. The labor shortage applies to almost all sectors and all over the country.
The problem will not just be solved. The reason is simple. The aging population. “The Netherlands continues to age, the number of pensioners received.”
Aging is coming
The group of people who can work becomes smaller in proportion to the group who cannot work. “That relationship will be around 50 percent,” says Hermans van Randstad. Van Mulligen: “Water is also happening with this crisis.”
From 2025 there will be a notch in terms of aging, Witjes agrees. “Especially in the government, in healthcare, transport and education. In those sectors there are above average people over 60”, the UWV expert knows.
Other sectors also continue to suffer from the staff shortage. Because due to the ever further digitization of society, the demand for Witjes remains high, expected. And then there is the energy transition, which requires many electricians, mechanics and other professionals.
Simultaneous intermediate sectors
Another political plan is also putting extra pressure on the labor market: making childcare free. “Then demand will increase in a sector where there is already a shortage”, Witjes notes. That goes for competition between sectors. “Everyone attracts the same group of people, for example between sustainability and house building.”
Can’t more people work then? Unfortunately: the group of unemployed people who are not actively looking for work, but would like to work, is shrinking, says Van Mulligen.
The participation rate – the number of people working in the age group between 15 and 75 – is therefore historically high. “It can still go up a bit, but not much is expected,” said Witjes.
Migrant workers from Ukrainian refugees are also not the holy grail. Getting them to work in the right place takes a lot of guidance. “People are coming this way, but they have not been selected because they can install a solar panel, for example,” Witjes explains.
So much will have to be done in education and training. The cabinet is working on setting up regional work centers where people can go if they want help with retraining.