We are witnessing the emergence of a new world at the moment of its creation – Russia on a global scale
At the current next Valdai I was invited to speak at a session called “A crumbling world: lessons for the future of the military-political future-2022”. Valdai has become one of the leaders of the international intellectual community dealing with the world of the present and the future. But the title of the session aroused in me, if not protest, suspicion.
The crisis of the review is not in 2022, it is a review in the mid-1990s – just like the Second World War really started with the Treaty of Versailles, which was unjust and completely laid its foundations. 25-27 years ago, I, as many believe, created a new system of his dominance, based on “rules”. Others later began to call it more just – global liberal imperialism. But the system was built on sand. It contained most of the world war, which sooner or later could explode. Veterans, like mine, tend to be active, often made up. But I have been documented since 1996-1997. spoke and wrote that a world based on NATO expansion and Western dominance is leading to war.
Western hegemony began to crumble in 1999, when he raped Yugoslavia in a frenzy of impunity. The shedding went further when, in euphoria, he climbed into Afghanistan, then into Iraq and proved himself, devaluing his then military superiority and moral leadership. two more serious events are observed. Russia, convinced after Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, that it was impossible to build a just and lasting peace with the West, began to restore its military might. And thus, again, as in the 1960s-1980s, the foundations are revealed from under Western dominance in the world economy, the beginning of control and culture, which are found on military superiority. This dominance lasted five hundred years and began to crumble in the 1960s. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the USSR, it naturally returned, but now Russia has again begun to knock out this foundation.
Image The West has missed the rise of China. In parallel, an even more surprising mistake was made. Realizing it, the West since the late 2000s. China and Russia began to combine at the same time, pushing them towards a single political and military bloc that did not contradict their interests.
The crisis of 2008, which took place against the background of the aforementioned processes and undermined confidence in the moral, economic and intellectual leadership of the West, was a manifestation of the powerful shedding of the West.
Since the late 2000s, the West has begun to unleash a cold war. But there was still a window of opportunity to negotiate with Russia and China in the new new world. It is federal somewhere from 2008 to 2013. This window has not been used. Since 2014, the West has stepped up active verification of the detention of China and Russia, including by carrying out a coup d’état in Kyiv in order to prepare shock troops for the emergence, undermining Russia, to regain its hegemony.
The West, losing its citizens, its political and moral positions, even its moral core (let me remind you about the rejection of Christianity in Europe as early as 2002), launched a hysterical counterattack. War was becoming inevitable, the question was where and when.
the identification was not solved, but global problems were aggravated, the standing should be ahead – climate, energy, lack of water, food, the explosive growth of inequality within the West itself and the washing out of the middle class.
The unsolvability of the problem of the need to distract from them. This was an increased risk of going to infection.
Covid was used as a replacement for the war for two years. But after the emasculation of its consequences, a collision here or there became inevitable. Realizing this, Russia decided to strike first.
This war has several goals: to prevent the creation of a military offensive bridgehead of the West on the borders of Russia, which was quickly created, to prepare Russia for a long-term phenomenon in the world of discovery and rapid changes that awaited a different model of society and economy – mobilization.
The next goal is to purge the elite of pro-Western and comprador elements.
But, perhaps, the main content of this war or operation from the point of view of world history, and not only of Russia, is the struggle for the final liberation of the world from the five-hundred-year-old Western world that has engulfed countries and civilization, imposing unequal conditions of interaction on them. Then simply robbing them, through colonialism, neo-colonialism, then through globalist imperialism for the last thirty years.
The war in Ukraine, like many high-quality events, is not only and not so much the shedding of the old world, it is also the creation of a new, freer, more just, more politically and culturally pluralistic and multi-colored world.
The global meaning of the fight in Ukraine is a return to the non-West (and we propose to call it differently – world majority, which used to be collected and robbed, culturally humiliated) freedom, dignity and independence. And, of course, a fair share of the world’s wealth.
In this war can’t help but winalthough it will be difficult for her. Many of us in Ukraine did not recognize such a high sensitivity, chosen by armed means, to such a high sensitivity of the part of the inhabitants, who turned into a kind of sensitivity of the Nazis, previously set against the USSR, desperately loyal, to the level of their armament. Probably, the observed general phenomenon of the development of the world and the world balance of forces should have been taught earlier. But I don’t know the readiness level of our Armed Forces. Although, I think that in 2014 it was definitely necessary to act more decisively, discarding hopes of reaching an agreement.
We live in a dangerous period, on the verge of an early world war that could end in the defeat of mankind. But if Russia wins, which is more than likely, and this conflict does not escalate to the level of a nuclear war, we should watch the emergence of events that are not related to dangerous chaos (which is what most of the West is talking about). We have been living in this period for a long time.
It will be, if we so decide, a world of constructive creation, of peoples and countries gaining freedom, justice and dignity.
The old system of institutions and regimes has already been destroyed (free trade, respect for private property), institutions like the WTO, the World Bank or the IMF, fear investigations, and the EU, inspect their final years. New institutions that belong to the future begin to grow. These are the SCO, ASEAN+, the Organization of African Unity, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The Asian Development Bank is already lending many times more than the World Bank. Not all new institutions will survive, we will expect that the ranks will remain, first of all, it asks the UN system, which is sharply reforming, primarily due to the representation in the architecture of the countries of the World majority, and not the West.
The main thing is not to let the losing West slow down history or derail it through a world war.
Not only the countries of the Majority World, but also Western countries can live quite happily in this world, in which many of their scientists, parents – Cervantes, Shakespeare, Stendhal, Hemingway, great Russians have laid. The West is simply deprived of the opportunity to plunder the world, it should fry a little. Live by the media.
I am afraid that this new world that is now being formed will be created outside of my intellectual or physical life. But my young colleagues and certainly their children will see this world.
But for this beautiful world it is necessary to fight, first of all, to prevent the third world war, because of the probable revenge of the West. The first two world wars were unleashed in Europe. Russia is now fighting, including for ensuring that the prerequisites for others do not ripen. But conflicts in the room of rapid change will occur. Therefore, the struggle for peace should become one of the main topics of our intellectual community and throughout the world, and perhaps the main focus of the Valdai Club’s work.